[QA] 100x 2011 1oz Silver Pandas or 100x 2010 1oz Silver Pandas?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Sep 11, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi xxxxxx,

    I think the question you have raised is a good one. So good, I'll list this as today's QA. :)

    To get 100x 2011 1oz Silver Pandas or 100x 2010 1oz Silver Pandas?

    In summary, for me, I would personally go with 100x 2010 1oz Silver Pandas. <That's the short answer... below is the longer answer>

    Since 2009, every Panda is more than over spot by at least 50% and most are more than that.
    Ie. A 2009 Panda is worth at least double the value of spot.
    Ie. A 2008 Panda is worth double the value of spot or near it.
    Ie. A 2007 Panda is worth at least double the value of spot.
    etc, etc, etc...

    It makes sense (and hopefully cents), that the 2010s will follow in this trend.

    The trend is usually your friend, and hence I often look to past performance as the leading indicator. The 2010s are not yet double spot, and with the release of the 2012s, this should push up the price of the 2011s, and hopefully in turn the 2010s (to hopefully double spot).

    I'm sure some people will not agree, saying: "BUT the mintage on the 2010s is 1.5million!" In response to this, I can confidently say that demand for silver Pandas has more than tripled in China since the 2010.

    People often confuse Pandas with numismatic coins, which they grow into, but are not originally issued that way. They are originally issued as bullion coins which are meant to satisfy that year's demands. Hence, in 2010 when demand exceeded supply, more 2010s were minted. Same in 2011, when demand exceeded supply, more 2011s were minted.

    2009 - 600,000 minted
    2010 - 1,500,000 minted
    2011 - 6,000,000 minted

    Why is this important? This is important for a few reasons, but for the sake of this discussion, this is important because Pandas are coins for the masses, unlike other numismatic series which have fixed mintages, like Heroes, and Phoenixes, and Chinese Lunars, etc. It is planned that there are enough Pandas in the issued year for the many people desiring them. Hence I can confidently say that demand for Pandas in China alone has at least increased ten times since 2009.

    Thus we can confidently expect, with Panda demand growing (both in China and abroad), not merely among collectors, but more importantly also among mum and dad investors, as witnessed by the increased mintage of 2011s, that 2010s should hopefully rise to double spot value ranges relatively quickly (within the next 6-12months hopefully). I might be a bit optimistic in my prediction, but if the previous years are anything to go by, hopefully I'll be buying as many as I can.

    This is an important issue to note. The Pandamonium of the past was primarily driven by the collectors mostly within China. However, the current and future Pandamonium is being driven by the masses (both within China, and internationally); and this is what we are seeing in the recent price jumps in all Pandas throughout all years in the last few years.

    Is the Pandamonium at its peak? Highly unlikely, I would postulate that it hasn't even really got started yet.

    As long as the masses are desiring silver, Pandas win - because Chinese people wanting to invest in silver are mostly restricted to buying Pandas.
    As long as the USD is dropping in relative terms to the RMB, Pandas win - because Pandas are valued in RMB.
    As long as Pandas remain the central bullion for the People's Bank of China, Pandas win - because as more people buy 2011s and 2012s they are likely to buy earlier years too.

    With the increased mintage of 2011 and 2012, it highly probable that there will be increased demand for all earlier coins (and new dedicated collectors coming to the market). Thus pushing up the value of all older Pandas.

    The next oldest Panda to the 2011 and 2012 Pandas are the 2010s, and I would be happy to place my capital on them.

    Hopefully which ever way you decide to go will be profitable for you. At this stage, I think it is hard to make a mistake investing in Pandas.

    Thanks for loving the new Panda Forum section on Silverstackers :) It is wonderful people like you who make it such a wonderful Panda Paradise :)

    Thanks heaps,
    Yennus.
     
  2. nicwinner

    nicwinner Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I prefer 2010
     

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