@Earthjade Based on the confidence level of your predictions (which are clearly well thought-out), if you had, say 20% NW equally in physical gold and silver 20% in cash and 10% in ET products, would you, based on your 2012 predictions :- 1. Get out now and stay out for the foreseeable future. 2. Get out now with a view to getting back in at (perceived) near bottom. 3. Stay in and DCA on the way down. and or 4. Sell short. This is not a request for financial advice, just your personal view. Cheers, and thanks for your considered and thought-provoking posts. neophyte
A rally by the US dollar in the first half of the year (to sucker everybody in) then WHAM! it'll get smashed. Militarily I feel a war is brewing in the middle east, I certainly hope nothing eventuates. Gold and silver to sore by the end of the year, Gold $2,500 Slilver $70 First half of the year calm in comparison to the second half of the year, yet still crash like 2008. Second half of the year, bedlam in the financial world.
Perry will be next potus. War with Iran. Financial doom but i think pm's will recover quick after a sharp drop. Heaps of people waking up on DEC 22nd and thinking ' Holy crap am i dead yet'.
Some of us made predictions on the price of gold and silver by the end of this year at a time when pm prices were looking strong and I am pretty sure we were all making predictions over $1700 for gold and $60 for silver and that looks unlikely at this point in time. Going on our dismal ability at making predictions, next year will all probably turn out different to what we expect! So what do I expect? - I think pms have reached near bottom and will start to climb back up from here (Got to be optimistic) I think something will give in Europe to get the domino effect going and eventually all countries will be affected. Lots of unemployment worldwide, pm prices going higher, oil going higher and the USA will start some kind of war in the Middle East to distract attention from their failing economy. Obama will get back in.
My medium-term thoughts haven't changed this year (which could be said about most posters, including those who are consistently wrong). http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-128534.html
end-2011 :- Melbourne Metropolitan Houses Median (www.reiv.com.au) : $550,000 Silver / Troy Ounce :- $29.39 Troy ounces of silver per median house :- 18,700 oz end-2012 [My prediction!] :- Melbourne Metropolitan Houses Median : $450,000 Silver / Troy Ounce :- $45.00 Troy ounces of silver per median house :- 10,000 oz So... will be stacking on dips back to long term supports
I think that this is very close to the mark. The USA elections are in the latter part of 2012, and no siting president has ever lost an election when the country is on a war footing. Obama and Co will engineer a war, in all probability with Iran, just to stay in power - sad really.
I question the USD index soaring. The US will be unable to improve its economy as its exports will be curtailed by a stronger USD. In an election year the US govt will do all it can to avoid recession. Their only weapon to keep their dollar from soaring against other currencies is to dilute its value. Call it printing or quantative easing, the net result is the same - a weakened currency or one that maintains relative value against others. Australia is at the mercy of the rest of the world. Bugger all manufacturing (same as US and half of Europe) and a mineral driven economy that could dry up at a moments notice. As a Country you may survive on tourists, McJobs and Govt handouts but you will never prosper. Most Western economies are in the crapper because they no longer make anything. What has actually changed over the last 6 months? Everybody knew about the Euro problems then and most predictions were for a high Aussie dollar and Commodity prices. Gold was going to do well and silver was going to soar. Now everyone is predicting the exact opposite. Why is this so?
Predication for 2012? Butchered 2011 but silver to close above $50 Gold above $2500 US dollar toast Euro toast China weakened Oil $150 plus unemployment 6-8 percent AUD property weaker but not toast
I think we will see more MF Global's if the physical demand is shooting up with no stop in sight regardless of price. I have converted a guy at work to buy, his looking to buy up big. He told me he was at ABC bullion and saw a guy buy up to 200k in one shot (was 2 monster boxes of PAMP, few 1kg gold bars and a range of other stuff), which is bugger all in the scheme of things and how much money and rich people there are out there. I also feel this is the real bottom, I don't know how much lower it will go. But once we get there, it will be the real floor before it starts its real upward climb. Keep stacking, we are edging closer to end game (1-4 years from now). Slam
Interestingly enough, while we are all so bearish, as we should have been at 40odd (when Morgan was), he has released his most bullish predictions I remember in the last few says. 2,500 and 60 by the end of 2012
My prediction for 2012 will be that Bob Chapman will make several wrong predictions again I'm just going to hold and scoop up more cheap Silver when I can and prey that Bernanke will be in a printing mood not too far from now. If there is a collapse from the Euro side at least our losses should be offsetted somewhat due to the USD rising which would crash the AUD causing Silver and Gold to stay in the $20ish range in AUD terms. I must say though the level of bearishness from the Silver front is scaringly high. Silver at $15? Not a chance IMO. That would be a 50% drop which is a little lower than the drop in 2008 but what some people forget that Silver dropped at $21 down to $8 yet $21 was Silver peak price at the time. Where now days we have already seen 2 large dips this year and a lot of the speculators are out. So we prob wont ever see Silver in the teens again and even in a 2008 style collapse we should see Silver stay in the low $20's at worst....
Who knows what prices will do throughout 2012. We could be sitting here in 12 moths with the exact same price as right now. However there will be some great opportunities to buy low and sell high over the coming year just as this year has given us. Picking it will be the key. One thing i am certain of is my knowledge of PM will continue to grow and i will enjoy the ride regardless of what happens!
After cr#pping myself and doubting my reasoning for getting into PM's (not to mention seeing the silver chart look like a perfect picture of a bull market about to collapse - which it kinda is I think, although maybe it's a mini-bull within the longer term bull that still has years to run (if that makes any sense?) I've been re-reading a lot of material and re-assessing my strategy today (which is still fluid as I am still such a total noob at metals!) If you asked me last night I would have told you - we're all doomed - sell it all as fast as you can! Tonight I'm feeling a little more confident that I haven't made the worst financial mistake of my life (my last "worst financial mistake" would be hard to beat though!) and am now feeling somewhat more optimistic (hopefully it's not denial in action!) :lol: My first ever (totally amateur) prediction on SS is: Silver will recover far sooner than gold in 2012. Maybe correcting down to low 20's before it heads north to 45 to 50 by end of march. End of 2012? 75 to 100 if not the moon! Gold maybe down to 1500'ish (1300 if we're lucky!) early next year, before turning head north and well over 2k to see 2012 out. Hopefully I haven't been carted off to a looney bin by the end of next year, as I look forward to re-visiting this thread then to see just how wrong I was (in a good way I hope!) Merry Christmas Blacksheep
