[PR] Beginners Guide To Pandas

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Nov 14, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2010
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Shanghai:Sydney
    Hi there, many thanks for all the questions that have been sent. Sorry that I can't always answer every question in great depth due to time constraints. Selling Pandas is not my occupation, but it certainly is a pleasure - not just because of the money, but because I enjoy sharing what I enjoy with others.

    Since many questions are very similar, I have created this post to help answer them.

    As a fellow Panda collector, I do enjoy sharing my experiences and enthusiasm about Panda collecting with others. I don't assume to be an expert compared to many other people (E.g. Panda Collector, Comeaux, Tamo42, 25Grizzlies, Fishball, Palm, Badon, etc). But hopefully this guide will be helpful to those wanting to know more about investing and collecting Pandas.

    Before jumping straight to the questions though, consider whether you are likely to be a collector or investor (or both). A collectors strategy will be different from an investors strategy, though there are many commonalities between them. Both are profitable, and both are rewarding.

    A Panda collector values the coin for the art that each coin contains, and while profit may be desired, it is not the ultimate objective. A collector often carefully selects and hunts for a specific Panda to complete a set, or due to some special appeal, etc.
    [​IMG]

    A Panda investor values the coin for the profit it brings, and while he/she may appreciate the designs, profiting from the Pandas is the primary objective. An investor looks at the trends and probabilities and invests in the range of coins which he/she thinks is likely to bring the greatest profit.
    [​IMG]

    Personally, I see myself as primarily an investor. My main objective is to profit from Pandas. I do have some Pandas that I collect and am unlikely to sell... but if the price was right, I would sell pretty much all my Pandas. I am not a dealer, nor do I earn a living selling Pandas. Yet, more and more Pandas are taking up my time. They certainly have been one of my more productive hobbies in life.

    On the other hand, my wife is a collector. There are some Pandas she would not sell, unless she was reasonably assured she could get them back again. Some years hold special significance (e.g. When we first met, the year we got married, the year of our child, etc).

    Question: Why collect/invest in Pandas as compared against other bullion coins?
    Answer: There are many answers to this question, but here are some of my answers.
    1. Pandas have been one of the most profitable bullion coins in the last decade to own. Some Pandas that have sold for $6-$8/oz are now fetching in excess of $1500/oz (E.g. 2000 Mirrored Pandas in Original Mint Packaging). Other Pandas, like the 1990 1oz Silver Panda when graded, can fetch up to $5200USD! The list of profitable Pandas goes on and on and on... and it is not just the really old Pandas. Even new Pandas that are only a few years old, like the 2009 and 2010 Pandas have appreciated more than most other bullion coins, and at rates faster than mere spot silver.
    [​IMG]

    2. Pandas have proven to be relatively resistant to drops in spot (with exception to the current year release). The older the Panda, generally the more resistant to drops in spot. However, the higher the price of spot, the higher the value of the Panda.

    Question: Why have Pandas performed so well?
    Answer: Panda performance can be attributed to many things, but I believe it is primarily because of Demand and Supply.
    a) Supply of older Pandas, especially pre-2000 Pandas are not growing, and many pre2000 Pandas are quite rare.
    b) Demand for Pandas is growing. This demand is both local (Chinese) and international.
    c) Supply of newer Pandas, especially post-2010 Pandas, are growing by the millions, which is helping to create new Panda collectors.

    Question: What about the fake Pandas?
    Answer:
    a) Yes, fake Pandas exist, but these are easy to avoid if you stick to reliable sources. It also helps to do your homework. I haven't yet come across a convincing fake, and I have probably seen more Pandas than most people. That being said, there are people who claim to have seen fake Pandas that are virtually indistinguishable from the genuine article... I have my doubts, but I could be wrong.
    [​IMG] - genuine
    [​IMG] - fake

    b) There is a reason why people fake Pandas... it is because they are profitable.
    c) Many people worry that fake Pandas will drive down the price of Pandas. I don't worry about that too much, if fake Pandas were such a big issue, Pandas would not have performed as well as they have over the past 10years and longer.
    [​IMG]
    d) There exists a community dedicated to exposing bad bears and bad bear dealers that is very helpful located at the China Coin Forum.
    e) Microsoft is probably the most counterfeited software in the world, and yet it is one of the most profitable software companies. The USD is probably the most counterfeited note in the world, and yet it is the most widely accepted. Counterfeit Pandas for me are just an annoying fact of life, that anything of significant value is likely to be counterfeited.
    [​IMG]


    Question: What are some profitable Panda strategies for investors?
    Answer: Please understand, this is my opinion, and I don't control the markets, so don't hold me accountable if Pandas crash to below spot.
    a) The simplest strategy to play in the Panda market is to buy 2011 1oz Silver Pandas. These are likely to have a small 1-5% rise above spot next year, since the 2012 Pandas will be the next bullion Pandas. Over 10years, no one can be sure what prices these will achieve, but it is highly likely they will be worth more than the then current 2022 Panda bullion.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0196s.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_0207s.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
    b) Alternatively, for those that want to try something a bit more speculative, target older and rarer Pandas that are likely to become even more rare in the coming months and years. Without a doubt, my favorite play has been the BIG3 (the 3 rarest silver Pandas from 1989-2011), which are the 2000 Mirror, the 1995 Microdate, and the 1999 Serif. The number of Panda collectors and investors are unlikely to diminish in the next 5-10years, which means that the top end of Pandas are likely to be in constant demand.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_2502.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995remd.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1999re.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    c) I like charts because in my opinion past performance is the best indicator of future performance. I like the correlation of low mintages + older age = high value. Thus, I tend to target the Pandas which seem to be undervalued, yet exhibit low mintage and older age (e.g. Good quality 2001, and 2002s are in my opinion both hard to find and currently undervalued).
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_19892000pandapoppricing.png][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_19892000pandapoppricingnobig3.png][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_20012011pandapoppricing.png][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_2229.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]

    Question: What are some profitable Panda strategies for collectors?
    Answer: Talk to 25Grizzlies, Comeaux and Panda Collector.
    a) The biggest profits are probably going to be found amongst the Panda collectors. 25Grizzlies has shared with the SydneyStackers some of his strategies for selecting Pandas that he sees as undervalued and likely to rise significantly.
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    b) Rare pandas such as the bi-metallics.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_2295.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    c) Proof Pandas.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1990pf.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    Question: Will some Pandas like the 1989s (or other older Pandas besides the BIG3) ever perform really really well, like the BIG3 have?
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1989buf.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Answer:
    a) Possibly. I don't think we have seen the height of the Pandamonium... I estimate that there are currently about 100,000 average Panda collectors worldwide, with a hardcore Panda collecting element of about 20,000 people. As more and more people start investing and collecting Pandas, I believe we are going to see a situation where even Pandas which are considered common, start to become very rare (E.g. 1995 Short Twig Small Date, 2000 Frosted, etc). This is unlikely to happen within the next few months, but it may happen in a few years.
    b) In the case of the 1989 Panda, every average Panda collector is likely to have one of these because it is the first Panda of the 1989-2011 series. It is estimated that there are 184,000 of these 1989 Pandas available. So once the Pandamonium kicks in, and the Panda collector base swells to 200,000; I think it is reasonable to see the price of the 1989 shoot much higher than a 2011, 2010, 2009, etc.

    c) The BIG3 will likely perform above the 1989 (in my opinion and hopes), but the risk is also greater.

    Question: What is SD, LD, Frosted, Mirrored, ST, Serif, etc?
    Answer: There are 3 mints that make Pandas. For some Panda years (most of them), there are slight variations in font, or date size, etc. Usually the Panda variation with lowest population appreciates the fastest.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_img_6847.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    SD - Small Date
    LD - Large Date
    Frosted - In 2000, the Pandas came in two varieties, one with a Frosted outer ring, the other with a Mirrored outer ring. The Frosted 2000 BU Panda usually goes for above $500, while the Mirrored 2000 BU Panda goes for above $1500.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2005bur.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_2000re.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    ST - Short Twig. In 1995, there were three varieties of Pandas. One variety of Panda was seen eating a 9 leaf bamboo cane (it also had a large date - RRP: $125). Another variety of Panda was seen eating a 3 leaf bamboo cane (it had a small date - RRP: $145). But finally a very rare Panda was seen eating a 3 leaf bamboo cane with a micro date (RRP: $2995)
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995ob.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1995re.jpeg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Serif - In 1999 it was found that only a few select bears had the serif font used for their date.
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1999re.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1999ob.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to pm me.

    Many thanks for your interest in Pandas,
    Yennus.
     
    Silverdale likes this.
  2. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2011
    Messages:
    907
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    South Louisiana
    Phenomenal job yennus, this is a great idea my man wow you sure put a lot of time and resources to provide information for all of the people here in Australia and abroad. Accolades to you bro

    I must say that I am impressed with your Panda forum and the Silver Stackers forum in general as a whole. I read a lot in the other sections and I'm totally impressed with the knowledge of the members on this Silver Stackers Forum in all areas of precious metal investing collecting. I should have read here more before ever posting as I have gotten a much greater respect for this entire forum and its members in and outside of the panda forum.

    I'm honored that you mention my name and will always provide any information that I can. I am not even in the same galaxy as most of the other people you mentioned but as I stated will always try to assist with whatever I can.

    Well good on you man for this new project/thread "Beginners Guide To Pandas" most excellent idea !

    thanks :)

    comeaux
     
  3. Anthony

    Anthony New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2011
    Messages:
    312
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    - Just to avoid any confusion, all references to micro/small/large date only refer to the font size of the text that the year is written with. When I first heard about pandas I thought small date meant that it was only minted for a shorter time :)

    There are 2 references that anyone interested in investing/collecting pandas needs, which are:
    1) Peter Anthony's "Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide". This book will provide mintage indications and high quality images of the coins. These are required to help work out which coins to target, if you are trying to find rarer coins, as well for comparing the images against coins you are thinking of buying, which will help lower the risks of buying a fake. The book is just over $40 and available on this forum from a couple of people.

    2) Panda Pricpedia. This is a monthly newsletter, which costs around $6/month. Here lists hundreds of pandas with current market values. Use this along with the book above.

    The hardest part about pandas is you need to forget that you are investing in bullion. Pandas are a numismatic play which also has some loose ties to silver prices, in my opinion. Get your head around that and then it is easier to spend $100oz+ on coins.

    Pandas require a lot of research, unless you want to run with the current year coins.

    I have only been with pandas for around 2 months, but the more time I spend researching the more opportunities you can find.
     
  4. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    6,627
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Shin Sekai Yori
    Excellent guide, should sticky it yennus.

    Pricepedia is a very good read, definitely worth subscribing.

    The countless hours of research that Peter Anthony does is well worth it :)
     
  5. Dandan

    Dandan New Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2011
    Messages:
    525
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Really good post yennus. Full of good info!

    Thank you!
     
  6. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2011
    Messages:
    632
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Australia
    Excellent article sir!!! Thanks, I now want a fake Panda Chow dog! :D

    c) Supply of newer Pandas, especially post-2010 Pandas, are growing by the millions, which is helping to create new Panda collectors.

    This is a crucial pont as we move forward with Pandas. Those buying up the older coins will reap the benefits of new hands into the market wanting to secure some of the 'old' relics. Yennus is modest and errs on the side of caution but I would confidently predict that must happen and probably big. '95 micro date to $10,000 within 10 years? Time will tell but there's est <4,000 of them. Unlike PM product these sort of mintage numbers actually mean something.

    Some commentatators see the 10's as the decade of silver where it replaces fiat as money. If that happens imagine where the premium silver coins of today will be. My advice to anyone who holds them is NOT to sell short term, circumstance dependant. Badon recommends only ever selling Pandas to upgrade, or if you are changing your strategy in CC or Pandas... never for fiat and I agree. If the market left you, you might never get back in. The same cannot be said of 'spot' price bullion that is driven up and then down again wildly for quick profit. That's the fact, stellaconcept says no manipulation but I havent ever heard a believable explanation for silver to co to $50 per oz and crash back to $30... yes I realise it was going parabolic and that was unsustainable but a 40% pullback? ffs that's like gold going to $2,000 per oz then back to $1,200. Silver is a very strange play in a lot of ways. 2 different markets, you buy the dips in bullion... Pandas don't (thus far) dip. It's like they're saying.. here we are come buy us and we'll look out for you.

    Pandas should be seen as discretionary investing, collecting really is a small part of this market IMO ie: they're all good coins for investment, every one of them. They are far more dynamic than generic silver and obtaining them requires skill, imaginatin and let's be honest a little courage when all around are screaming "FAKE"!! and "STEER CLEAR"!!

    Spend time researching Pandas, the more you do the more you'll have in your arsenal when purchasing them. Make mistakes now, protect yourself from fakes as much as possible while buying genuine coins for as little as possible and have fun.

    I'm expecting a few more to arrive either today or tomorrow.
     
  7. wilkes

    wilkes Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2011
    Messages:
    388
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I have just purchased some 2011 Pandas... When I held the first one in my hand I was hooked! I might need to stick to the advice of not selling out for fiat, but trying to trade for various other Pandas and build up a little collection :)

    If anyone has a small population and would like to help me get started, please let me know haha.
     
  8. noagenda33

    noagenda33 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2011
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    Perth
    thanks Yennus great info there for newbies like me.....starting to think there will be greater returns chasing these babies and disposing of some of the kooks, dragons and others in the stack...!
     
  9. mrslick32

    mrslick32 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Excellent post Yennus! I totally agree with what you said above that I highlighted. That's one of the main reasons why I buy panda coins. :)
     
  10. mrslick32

    mrslick32 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2011
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Since some people are afraid of fake panda coins, I would like to share some tips for avoiding fake pandas based on my experience.

    1) Buy Peter Anthony's Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide. It contains pictures of all panda coins, which you can compare to the picture of the panda coins that you are planning to buy.
    2) Buy an AWS (American Weigh Scales) pocket scale or something similar. This scale can be used to weigh the coins to help you spot fakes more easily. From my experience, real panda coins with the capsule and plastic seal can weigh anywhere around 1.18 to 1.26 troy ounces. The extra weight over 1 troy ounce is due to the weight of the capsule and plastic seal (if double sealed). A fake coin will weigh less because of the base metal used.
    3) Buy only from a reputable seller with a good return policy so you can do suggestions 1 and 2 above and return the coin if you are not satisfied.
    4) Fakes usually have the wrong year and design combination, no denomination (not applicable to panda medals, which are real but have no denomination), and fakes usually have a noticeable difference in the quality of the image. If you look at enough pictures of the real coins (from Peter Anthony's book, coins purchased from reputable dealers, or pictures of graded coins), you will get a feel for the fakes.

    In addition, you will notice from Yennus' original post that the fur of the pandas on the fake coins look different from those on the real coins. This is a common characteristic that I've seen in fake pandas so I will treat it as a red flag if I see a panda with that type of fur (not fine and smooth like in the original coin as shown by Yennus).
     
  11. nub

    nub New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Hi I am new to this forum. I usually frequent Bullion Stacker but found my way here and I have found this forum and this thread of great interest.

    Could you help put a value a 4 coin Panda set

    China 4 Coin Silver Pandas with all Original Mint boxes and COA's
    12 oz.
    5 oz.
    2 oz.
    1 oz.

    Also a 1994 bi-metal 10 Yuan 1/10 gold & 1/28 .999 silver Panda.


    1 last items I wonder about is I have 2 ceramic pandas that ar about 7 inches tal, made by J Castles, and the heads come off the panda which reveal a 1991 1/2 gold panda. I have googled these and can't find anything.

    I have acquired a number of older modern unicorns too. Is there a good place to help with updated pricing on these?

    Thanks for any help.
     
  12. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    A 2 oz panda? Is this the 1991 set?
     
  13. nub

    nub New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yes it is the 1991 set, sorry I forgot to list the year. Being new I guess I have to wait 10 minutes in between posts. Sorry for the delay.
     
  14. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    The 4 coin set recently sold for about $4k in 69 grade, so I'd guess ~$3k in OMP (assuming the 1 oz is a proof panda).

    The 1991 1/2 oz golds go for about $1500 in 69, so $750-$1k raw.

    I haven't seen the small 94 bimetallic sell recently (last sale was a couple months ago), so I could only guess around $500-$1k.

    All in all somewhere around $5k
     
  15. nub

    nub New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2011
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Other than trying to sell on ebay or try to get a get decent price from a dealer is there a good place to sell these?

    Thanks for all your help
     
  16. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2011
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
  17. tonyz92

    tonyz92 New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2013
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Canada
  18. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 26, 2013
    Messages:
    3,656
    Likes Received:
    293
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    United States
  19. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 26, 2013
    Messages:
    3,656
    Likes Received:
    293
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    United States
  20. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 26, 2013
    Messages:
    3,656
    Likes Received:
    293
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    United States

Share This Page