I'm just putting this out there just to see if it comes true: http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html The monthly silver lease rate is sitting at -0.355% and falling. Turd Ferguson has made the observation that twice last year when the lease rate has fallen below -0.4%, a smackdown occurred within a week. If this "indicator" works this time round, then maybe this could be used as ONE possible indicator of smackdown events by the-powers-that-be. I'll keep updating this thread until the rate reaches -0.4% and a smackdown either occurs or does not shortly after that.
Now you can tell me I am totally wrong here (I wouldn't be offended a I have been wrong before and will possibly be wrong in the future) but do you think this manipulation has anything to do with an upcoming Silver options expiry date of 26th of Feb (I think). EJ, I made a mental note of this time of year after your last couple of correct calls for dips in the silver price just before these expiry dates... http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-18716-harveysorgan-on-current-raid.html As I missed the nice dip in December (due to working 14hour days) I was hoping to top up on this next dip. Any thoughts on this are most welcome. Brix.
Contract expiries are always dips in the silver price. Feb 26th would definitely be a date to wait for if anyone is thinking to buy now. However, I'm not sure if there is a relationship between the lease rate and the options expiry date. That is, if they coincide or if the lease rate can also drop in non-expiry times.
Any more good links to further describe the links between all this and silver pricing to a noob like myself?
Silver rate at -0.4045% and falling. *DING DING DING* Now, let's see if a smackdown occurs in the next week. However, this may be slightly distorted because we know that the options expiry occurs on the 26th of February and prices will be smacked then. More research needs to be done as to whether falling lease rates is a function of the options expiry. All I will say is if you are planning to buy silver any time soon, save your money for about an extra week.
I've been keeping an eye on this as well since Turd mentioned it Earthjade, Will certainly be interesting to see how this pans out. Add Options Expiry, and now the fact that Greece is once again "saved" (tongue in cheek lol) it's like a three way tug of war! Also interesting to see that the AUD is falling at same time as USD while Euro strengthens, and oil is still on a run - my brain is hurting trying to follow this! :lol: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...amid-greece-rescue-talks-treasuries-drop.html Hold on to your hat I think, sure is shaping up an interesting week!
How long is the period these options are for? I don't know enough about them. Are they monthly, quarterly?
The simple fact is that no-one believes the fairy tales being put forth about Greece and everyone is taking a 'brace for impact' position. Only the foolhardy or the inside traders are in anything but cash and real assets now.
Happens each month. I should mention I'm in no way an expert on Futures trading I had a PDF file from comex with the 2011 dates on it although haven't found this years calendar as yet, did find this years dates mentioned on another forum and a few blogs though.
I'd imagine the Greece situation may negate the impact we'll see from this? Or would you expect the lease rates to over ride the little spike we've seen this morning? Very interesting times indeed.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that silver is going to rise over the next month or two. How Much? $35 US an oz. Why? Well someone here posted about J P Morgan taking all the physical silver which Kodak had stored away.. It has been sold to a big silver player...They have made their profit for this month..Now lets keep all these small silver players off their gaurd and do the opposite to what their gurus think will be the plan of JP Morgan. Anyway thats the way I see it..I havn't got a bloody clue anymore of which way silver is going but I don't trust the paper silver barons as you can see.. So whatever they do, you can bet your life that the house never looses. Let us see how this plays out. Regards Errol 43
Has J P Morgan sold all the silver from Kodak? It would not surprise me if they held onto the silver and let the market have a small rally and then sell for a higher profit, then when all the paper players are buying up big and starting to feel comfortable again BAM!!! another smack down. Something to think about.
