Just curious as to whether the market is starting to factor in premiums for immediate delivery. Looking at some dealer websites, prices are available on say tubes of ASEs that are fairly reflective of spot plus premium, but delivery is at least a month away. Would people pay a premium for "immediate delivery" for stock if they could have it today? How much an ounce would you be willing to pay for silver-in-hand as opposed to being an unsecured creditor of a dealer for a month or more?
i'm about to make a post for 6 pamps with certs 1kg for 1350... huge premium but its avail immediately
At the moment, I'd be happy to wait for delivery. Particularly if the price moves to the low 30s before I order. I'm a longer term player. But I would't have said the same when it was in the $45+ range. I'm looking to place a delivery order early next week.
Great topic. a topic about backwardation in silver. doesnt kind of apply to my purchasing habits as most of my silver is bought on eBay and comes from either the USA and Europe, so i almost always wait 2-3 weeks prior to taking delivery. Per $100 id be happy to pay up to $4 to have delivered the next day. $5 or more and im happy to wait.
So with spot at 36.14, essentially you're saying somewhere between $1.45/oz and $1.80/oz premium for immediate delivery. That's $4-$5 per $100, or 4%-5%.
It really depends on what I am buying tbh I would say $2/oz premium maximum for me if I'm buying some stuff that is in shortage (such as 10oz bars) but I wouldn't pay more than $0.5/oz premium for 100oz ABC bars haha Bleh I duno, I'm pretty irrational when it comes to buying stuff, if it looks like good value for me I go in !
Yeah, with larger orders of $1k and more, the premium would probably be a bit lower. But i havent been buying larger orders so dont really know as what id do for in that situation. but paying larger premiums to MINIMISE wait times, is logical and natural.
I don't mind the wait. For me, this is a longer term investment after all, and if I'm cutting into profits just so I can 'have it now' - seems a little backwards.
The urgency, both political and financial, in Australia is different than other countries. I have seen asking and selling prices much higher than the dealers are quoting including delivery, and am aghast that people are paying them. At the present, I am prepared to wait for delivery.
Well a good start would be to look at the trend in eBay prices. eBay is a place where you can get 'immediate delivery' because the seller has the item in their hand. Dealers are happy to take your order at the normal premium as long as they have confidence in THEIR supplier to supply them silver who has confidence in their supplier etc etc all the way up to someone having confidence that London can supply them with physical bars. I am happy to go through a dealer and wait for delivery. I know that my order is placing demand on physical silver so that is good enough for me. If we start seeing hardcore silver rationing on a wholesale level then I might consider paying a premium (if I had any $ left to buy silver!)
The higher price for IMMEDIATE delivery doesnt have much to do with whether you are in it for the long run or short term. Reason for paying more is to avoid risks associated with your metal broker going out of business whilst he has your money and a promise that he will deliver the Monster box in 6 weeks time. You are also isolating yourself from a very very small possibility of a SHTF situation happening whilst you are waiting for your Monster Box - and if that happens, you can kiss it good bye thus the small premium on having the metal now.
I'm happy to wait. I don't believe in SHTF here and i also don't turn the metal around that fast anyway.
Haha I haven't made such a big purchase yet, still a small time stacker My whole stack isn't even half a monster box! But I guess it makes sense if you were paying 20 grand+, you'd want some insurance on actually getting your silver delivered! In my case it'd be a 200 dollar or 1% premium on a monster box (if I could afford one!)
I always find it interesting when people say s*!t wont hit here. I understand nm said above believe which is different. What makes Australia immune to economic meltdown, in 2008 i knew people in who lost jobs and ones who didn't said it was scary cos lots were. I thinnk the next one will make 2008 look like a sneeze. The government stimulated the economy with borrowed money to keep it afloat and put us all in debt. The housing bubble is wobbling and if china stops buying our resources, we'll see how it goes then. Look at Wellington and Auckland, Japan, Qld flloods/cyclone. the middle east is getting hotter, out and out war is possible and money is getting worth-less. If a few things happen at the same time SCHTF I'm not saying it will, just that it can. Back on topic, I just placed an order today with a 6 week wait but i'm not worried
If its an australian company i want immediate delivery & would pay a small premium to have it in hand because i know if its a 6 week wait they are just ordering it form overseas .Unless its PM stuff. I can get it from overseas faster & cheaper than i can buy it here anyway .I dont really like the whole forward selling thing why would i wait 6 weeks when i can get it here myself in 3 to 4 & save money Seems a lot of the new bullion dealers are just forward selling
I dont do private buys from overseas via ebay, have my reservations, so buying domestically is a choice that sometimes might result in extra premiums for a similar delivery window, but again it's a conscious choice, so no probs...Wish I had a chance to trade more privately though, it is hard from Adelaide, and the timing is key in buying - delivery time will probably not affect me till silver hits $100+, then I will act like a meerkat, for now I say it arrives eventually if you are dealing with the right people, no extra premiums necessary... Only dealing with trusted dealers, some of which are site sponsors, so I feel the risk of them going bust or not honoring the deal is minimal and I don't mind the late shipment as I buy to hold...I have peace of mind when dealing with my favourite dealers including site sponsors, wouldn't pay a cent more as extra premium for immediately delivery...
I bought some name brand 10 ounce silver bars (Johnson Matthey/Engelhard) today when spot was down to US 38.78. May be it was early, but Gainesville only had 27 of them and I wanted those bars badly.
GP is there a history or track record of this? Maybe after the 80's run up in price? Just wondering if this is why you put it out there.
