Have your say on where we are, where we're going, dangers, opportunities. Pessimists and Optimists. All welcome Some words from the RBA. https://www.theguardian.com/busines...hief-warns-low-wages-growth-will-hurt-economy Some words from a poet. "I'm tryin' to feed my soul with thought Gonna sleep off the rest of the day Sometimes no one wants what we got Sometimes you can't give it away" - Working Man Blues #2 : Bob Dylan
I am of the belief that we will have a recession within the next 12 months. I can't see how falling house prices, combined with a falling aussie dollar is going to help anyone. It's going to mean more expensive imports, on the other hand RBA raises rates house prices could fall further but our dollar should hold up. Interesting year or two coming up i think
The RBA has to clarify what they mean by inflation. Because we have inflation, just not in the boxes they choose to look in. Anywho I'm bearish. I can't see how someone can drink 2 bottles of pure vodka and not get sick. It's all great until you hit that point early in the morning when your fun night starts to turn bad really fast.
US just hiked rates and are pencilling in another 2 for the year. Surely we can't hold rates while they are soaring overseas?
Last Aussie economy bull reporting for duty. 27 years recession free and still holding up pretty well. Which reminds me, I have some more dire things to post in the Gloom and Doom thread
I don't think anyone will say things are bad here, rather how much longer will things remain great. Also why? for and against.
A BIG BEAR is coming!! My BM crystal ball says Australia will not escape the prophecy below - "Speculators will bring about a global financial and economic crisis of such proportions as has never before been seen, so that the whole financial economy falls into terrible straits, and also very much trouble and great scarcity of commodities occurs. Even in the USA, the people will be dispossessed as a consequence of the global financial crisis, which shall become a pretext for deploying the military and police forces against the angry and partly also heavily armed population. The planned ban on cash shall elicit the dispossession of the population, while however the elites of the ruling classes and of capitalism shall enjoy great opulence, as if they were swimming in a pile of money. And the whole financial system the world over will be overturned, in order to redistribute the extant national debts of all countries, so that in general it costs all populations of all states. There already are secret plans in the USA and EU-dictatorship to start a war from Germany against Russia, which shall then be blamed for the whole ensuing global crisis. And that the war should be blamed on Russia, of course completely unfairly – if it actually happens – that is obvious from the start. And if this war should actually happen, then it will be used as an excuse to enact martial law which will suppress the riled-up population, who by then will be fully dispossessed – with mighty and reckless military and police forces."
For sure, but won't that just exacerbate the cost of imported goods thus increasing the cost of living for the average Australian? I understand it will support local manufacturers who will sell more domestically and overseas, as well as tourism would flourish. But wouldn't it just mean really expensive fuel and food?
I don't for a second think it will solve anything. I'm just suggesting an option they might take due to them having no other option and to kick the can one final time.
Property bubble is deflating,would have to be a few years left in the building trade( most builders are booked for at least a year).Since 2010/13 till now there’s been around 250000 jobs created in and around the building industry. Exclude visa workers still a lot of new unemployed in the next few years.
US dollar and economy strong and getting stronger. Banks down, RBA squelching housing. Interest rates will keep AUD down and exports strong. Oz immigration a strong driver. Herd mentality a negative. Household money is tight, and deflation biting. A few more options for kicks of the can down the road. Down a bit and flat for a year or two then business as usual until Trump effect Mk11 at his second term. Then the unravelling begins ??
A read of the Elliott Wave pattern sees the 2008 GFC as wave A followed by an almost decade long false recovery in wave B that has just recently rolled over into what will be a devastating wave C that will soon make itself evident.
Back at it again with more bad news, apologies for dampening the spirits yet again S&P Global reported Prime SPIN 30+ day mortgage arrears at just 1.08 per cent. Dropping from 1.21% last year., Usual suspects of WA, NT and regional QLD being of any interest but still trending lower. Worse still, the 90+ day Prime SPIN mortgage arrears of 0.49% are down from 0.65% a year earlier. Ashaedmly far below the 2011 and 2012 peaks at 1.6%, when mortgage rates were considerably higher. Don’t worry, rates not going nowhere anytime soon. International trade balance was in surplus of of a measly $827 million in May. Dismal increase from revised $427 million from previous month LNG revenues for May were the second highest month on record for total merchandise exports at $28.3bn Annual value of exports from Australia surged to nearly $400 billion, up from $320bn in 2016 The services sector is expanding at the fastest pace on record, vacancies sadly increased 24% higher year-on-year to a seasonally adjusted 236,000. Non-conforming loans continue to fall, from 4.19% in March to only 3.86% in April. Asahedmly thats the lowest level of non-confirming arrears across two decades of data. Does anyone actually read all these? Monthly retail turnover rose +0.4% to a rubbish high of $26.7bn. Smashed avo consumption increased 15% due to high demand. 26 year low for money growth Annual mining company gross operating profits thumping along to record levels at $110.6b Etc etc
recession in the bakin (i think we are already in it), media hasnt declared it yet. the housing cool down will stall a lot of economic activity, therefore wont be any inflation.. lower interest is to come. 1% ? yes .. i do read the bullet point.
