[OPINION] Old Bears Strike Back

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Feb 5, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just some of my bearish thoughts, this evening/morning :)

    I had a short discussion with someone earlier about how the vintage bears seem to be doing very well lately, and it got me thinking that perhaps we are going to see some high price movements in the vintage (pre2000) bears this year.

    This belief is partly based on the recent group buy that took place, where I saw that some Panda years were very very low on inventory - so low I needed to hunt harder than usual.

    Similarly the recent repricing/restocking of Pandas at APMEX got me thinking more about the nature of vintage bears.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1989buf.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
    Here's an example of their current pricing:
    1989 BU (OMP) $89.99USD
    1989 PCGS MS69 $149.99USD
    1989 NGC MS68 $119.99USD
    1989 NGC MS67 $109.99USD

    Notice something strange? Not only is the MS68 out pricing the OMP price, the MS67 is also out pricing the OMP. Usually, MS68s drop in value equivalent to that of OMP, and MS67s are much lower than OMP... yet here this is not the case.

    I certainly think, that as the Pandamonium and number of Panda collectors increase, we are going to see the value of even the lower grades (e.g. MS67) start to move upwards, especially with the older bears.

    If we consider that a 1989 1oz Silver Panda is equivalently priced to that of a 2009 1oz Silver Panda (approx $85-$95USD), despite having half of its mintage size (2009 BU Est. 600,000; 1989 BU Est. 255,000) ... I think that the 1989 1oz Silver Panda is long overdue for a price increase . I could be totally wrong - but I'm hoping that I'm right.

    I think that a lot of new collectors/stackers are collecting their Pandas starting from the latest 2011 Panda, and working backwards in sequence - which is why the 2009s and 2010s are doing relatively well (2-3x spot). As tao's (Panda sets) start moving back into the vintage era (pre2000), I think we are going to see some new records for earlier Pandas... even among the low grade slabbed Pandas - if only because there are not enough top Pandas to go around.

    I hope this was interesting and makes sense/cents.
     
  2. TheMineTech

    TheMineTech New Member

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    1989 is my favourite bear, just grabbed a MS69 and PF69 for great prices and hope your right about the coming increase!!
     
  3. heyimderrick

    heyimderrick Active Member

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    Kind of brings up that old thread we had going about OMP vs. Graded valuation.

    I've gotten to the point where I feel more comfortable buying an MS68 than an OMP if I can't see the OMP in person.

    Considering the coins move around a lot in the older capsules, they often get scuffs on the higher parts, so an OMP can easily end up being a lower grade coin. For example, my 1989/1990 OMPs all have scuffed foreheads where it hits the capsule when rattling around in there. I sent 2 of these in with VERY MINIMAL scuffs and they came back MS68. Most of the others are equal to or worse, leaving me to assume that they would likely be more along the lines of MS65-67.

    All that said, I'd say MS68 is likely to fair well. In terms of value/premium, I'd put MS67 below OMP, but MS68 above OMP. In all honesty, my MS68s are some damn fine looking coins in the holders, too.
     
  4. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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    Totally agree. I think the 89-97 pandas are severely undervalued.
     
  5. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    :) If you are sitting on alot of them that could be an accurate assessment , if you are trying to accumulate more you might have a different perspective:)............. I just watched a 1998 large date go for 250.00 on e bay moments ago ,the coin was in OMP ,but IMO (which does not mean much as far as grading goes:)) its lucky it grades ms 68, it had visible rub marks on the forehead.............. , Oh well ,ebay prices have gone up 15 to 20% in a couple of weeks
     
  6. musemellow

    musemellow Member

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    I agree, some of the 68s looks as good as 69
    And they are usually sold for much less than MS 69!
     
  7. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I'm waiting for 'Return of the Panda' myself.

    (lame joke in a word play on the thread title)

    Apologies.
     
  8. musemellow

    musemellow Member

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    The Panda Wars :)
     
  9. Teh silvers

    Teh silvers Member

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    1989 is the best panda design IMHO
     
  10. Teh silvers

    Teh silvers Member

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    What's that you say..... A group buy :)
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I like the classic 1989 Panda design also.

    I would like to do a group buy on the 1989s... but I'm not sure if there is enough interest.

    OMP Price for the 1989s in China is also around the price of a NGC MS68/69 1989 1oz Silver Panda.

    Anyone interested in getting some 1996s? If we can get some volume going, hopefully we can get these for about the same price as 2009 Pandas.
     
  12. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    I would be interested in 1989 Panda design
     
  13. possum

    possum Member Silver Stacker

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    Always interested in any i don't have. And i don't have any 1996 yet.
     
  14. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    I am interested ,if the price makes sense with US del. cost ,sheets of 10 for me Yennus...........
     
  15. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    I would/could be in depending on when etc... Need more funds before my next buy.
     
  16. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Yes im interesed in 1996/1997 and the colour (nice prices in pricepedia ask china)
     
  17. jc888888888

    jc888888888 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Thor , I have 2 /10y and 2/ 5y colour 1997 panda at ngc now ,should be back in a week ,once I get the grades ,I am keeping 1 pair and selling one maybe we can get together ,they where super nice coins thats why I sent them in ,I will PM you when I get them
     
  18. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Its ok to me. I buy a 1999 ngc69 ultra cameo a few days ago for less than 150.
    When you have the coins send pm to me with the prices. I only interesed in ngc69
     
  19. CAPITALISTPIG

    CAPITALISTPIG New Member

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    Nick at Majestic Rareities has some interesting points on this topic
    OMP vs. Graded

    http://majesticrarities.com/pages/blog/quality-grade-guarantee/

    Personally I am questioning my next move regarding a coin. Perhaps the group can tell me what they think. I have come across a 1998 LD 10Y gold in OMP. I keep bouncing back and forth regarding the issue of having this graded. I have concern over the vinyl packaging, yet I have a strong feeling to leave it as it is. I also am not eager to send this through the mail. While it was a great score, I do plan to sell it sometime as I could fill in a lot of holes in the collection with the procedes. But what would be the best move. I am not an expert grader and at the moment I am working to get some high resolution photos (I have bad luck photographing the small coins). But I guess the opinions that I am seeking involve the question of OMP vs grading as it would apply to scare finds. Any thoughts?

    I guess I should have posted this under the OMP vs graded thread, but the two seam to have intersected at this idea.
     
  20. heyimderrick

    heyimderrick Active Member

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    I read the article and I have mixed feelings. First, I have bought coins from Majestic Rarities. He's a local seller and reputable and I have been pleased with the service and quality of coins. However, while some valid points are made in the article, it also has a marketing angle as he encourages you to only buy graded coins, which is his primary business. To me, part of the fun is hunting for raw/omp coins in search of the "winners" that come back with high grades. But here are some things to consider in your situation:

    1. You can generally tell if the OMP is original or resealed by comparing it to others. If it is original, you should be less fearful of it being a low grade resealed coin.

    2. If the plastic isn't degraded, you can use a magnifying glass to examine the coins, and can usually tell if specks, scratches, etc. are on the coin or on the plastic pretty easily. If the coin has any noticeable marks on it, I would think heavily before sending it in for grading.

    3. If you plan to sell, you need to consider the possible outcomes of grading. Will an MS67, 68, 69 resell for enough to cover your purchasing price and grading expenses?

    4. If you want to grade it, consider the costs. Sending in just one coin would be extremely expensive when adding the submission form handling fee, shipping there and return shipping. Plus you need to be a member or have a *trusted* dealer or other member send it in for you.

    These are just some of the things to consider. As always, there's no guarantee of a high grade. You can only examine it and make an educated guess by comparing it to other graded coins.

    Might be worthwhile to merge this discussion with this older thread:

    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-18597-ms-what-determining-the-value-of-graded-vs-omp.html
     

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