[OPINION] June Panda Pricepedia - 1/10oz Gold Pandas Promoted

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Jun 9, 2012.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [​IMG]

    Another interesting monthly report by Peter Anthony. He's a very fortunate person who gets to travel to all the wonderful shows around the world - which gives him a unique worldwide perspective that is wider than many other collectors and commentators.

    I found interesting his writeup on 1/10oz Gold Pandas.

    "... there is an interesting phenomenon taking place. Certain Panda gold coins are much in demand, and very strong. An example is the 1/10 oz. gold Panda series."

    "... the 1/10 oz. Pandas are great coins. They are large enough to be attractive, small enough to not cost and arm and a leg, and are available enough to fill orders."

    "...All over China banks have placed displays of gold Pandas in their lobbies for their customers to see, and buy. This kind of selling targets a very different sort of buyer than we usually see the general public. Suddenly, people who aren't coin collectors are asking for all dates of Panda coins in year sets. Maybe it's because their child was born in a certain year, or whatever. What matters is that they are suddenly gold Panda buyers."

    I'm hoping that this Pandamonium over 1/10oz Gold Pandas spreads to the 1/20oz sets too.

    I like Peter's frontpage design... stunning Pandas :)
     
  2. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Fishball is getting that pricepedia framed as we speak ha

    I prefer my 1/10ths Au with a 1/28th Ag round the rim ;)
     
  3. aussiesilver

    aussiesilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What are those bi-metals worth grizzlies
     
  4. digoxin

    digoxin Member Silver Stacker

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  5. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    The 1/10th bi metals vary in price depending on year and grade, like the 1/10ths they're a fantastic series:

    (mintages Mr. Ge, prices courtesy of PA pricepedia)

    1992 (2,000) - $2,900 PF69 (excessive imo)
    1994 (2,500) - $2,200 PF69
    1995 (1,612 est) - N/A, I paid $1,400 for a PF68 approx 12 months ago
    1996 (2,500) - $1,300 OMP PF68 (opinion)
    1997 (830 est) - $3,000 + PF69
     
  6. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Bi metals are hot property in the Panda series but I think $20,000 is asking too much.
     
  7. Reggie Perrin

    Reggie Perrin New Member

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    The pricepedia seems to be getting larger and larger.. which makes it excellent value for money.

    Some good thought provoking articles in this months edition [I'm not saying that previous months lacked good articles :) ]

    If the 1/10th are seeing an increase in demand\price, because they don't cost an arm and a leg, this should mean that as the price of gold increases the 1/20th become the next hot property. If the gold price then continues to ramp upwards then what becomes hot (there is no 1/40th toz coin), or does it mean people give up on the gold Pandas and move to silver?

    On the downside; if price is predominately driven by affordability, and only in small part by numismatic or scarcity factors, then wouldn't the value of 1/10th coins drop sharply if the price of gold drops, i.e the 1/4 oz becomes affordable and there's plenty of supply, as not many people can afford them ATM, plus the masses will want to offload the 1/10th as quickly as possible, increasing supply? (not that I see gold dropping much, given the ongoing money printing)

    I think it's better if the masses didn't collect Pandas.
     
  8. Austacker

    Austacker Active Member

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    I am seeing a definite softening in prices of the Big 3 which to me says they were ahead of the pack and have pulled back a little. This has created more demand for the next tier and it is reflected in growth in most of these limited release coins. What it will do is create people to hold off on these which will create a limited supply which should push up pricing over the next 24 months. I would think now is the time to be getting as many as you can at the moment ?
     
  9. 25Grizzlies

    25Grizzlies Member

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    Agree with you Aus, getting off thread here sorry... the thing is that the Big 3 (especially the 2000 mirror) gave the series the key dates it was needing for the series to be a legitimate collectors target. Buyers rushed in and sellers were happy to oblige, perhaps the coins were over hyped but there's nothing new in that. The market is young and it's fascinating to watch it mature. The second wave of investors haven't value these 3 coins as highly hence the softening prices. But they have certainly played their part in promoting the other limited series, such as expo coins and variety dates, which are enjoying a resurgence.

    We're seeing the same kind of thing happening in gold, buy as many fractionals as you can!

    Yennus do you have any of those 2006 1/10th ozs???

    :D
     
  10. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm still a big fan of the BIG3 strategy, and haven't personally noticed a pullback in prices or demand... I have encountered a diminishing supply of them though.

    For good quality BIG3 coins, I think the demand will likely be high for many years since they are the key dates. No silver Panda collection is really complete without them - and the 2000 Mirror in particular spans 3 major taos (Entire set, pre-2000 sets, and the post-2000 sets).

    Unfortunately I don't have any 2006 1/10oz ... yet :)

    BUT I do have the 90, 92, 96 and 2001D 1/10oz Pandas :)
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Reggie, some fantastic questions :) I'll have a go at answering them later. I gotta handle some non-Panda related stuff :)
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_1990ms70.jpg][​IMG][/imgz][​IMG]

    A 1990 1/10oz MS70 Panda :) ... looks like it glows :)
     
  13. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm hoping this is the case :) ... I've loaded up on a lot of 1/20oz Gold Pandas from previous years :)

    There are 1g Pandas :) - but these are super expensive. When gold ramps up, I think all Pandas will be even hotter. Those with larger pockets will get the 1oz Gold Coins (or larger), those with smaller budgets may get the 1/20oz Gold Pandas they like, or silver equivalents.


    Panda pricing (in my view) is predominantly driven by demand (and not really by affordability - though affordability adds to the public appeal), largely in part by collectors worldwide. I think this view is supported by the fact that almost all gold Pandas (of any size), usually sell for above spot - and above the usual premiums associated with general bullion gold coins.

    In the past, and even today, when the spot prices drop, Panda pricing doesn't always drop. E.g. 2012 Bullion Pandas are still sold at about $43/oz despite spot being much lower. A 1995 MicroDate still fetches above $1200USD, etc.


    Hehehe... I'm all about sharing the Pandamonium :) Not everyone can play the usual expensive numismatic games (e.g. 1930s Australian Penny fetches between $10,000 to $200,000AUD)... but most people should be able to play the Panda games (E.g 2000 Mirror usually sells for between $1000-$2000, and the 2000GZ Panda usually only goes for $350-$450AUD... accessible to most people).
     
  14. Reggie Perrin

    Reggie Perrin New Member

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    ^ cheers Yennus... good reply

    Your comments make sense, for example, I collect Pandas as it satisfies my desire to stack physical PM and [happily] at the same time put together a collection/series of really nice coins that I can afford ( a grown ups version of collecting bubble gum cards :) ). Plus if PM prices collapse then the coins themselves have some intrinsic value (numismatic/scarcity/ pretty coins :) ), which you're not going to have if you stacked bullion bars.

    My fear is what happens during and post a large increase in demand driven by the general public?

    Peter's article talked about the general public's impact upon Panda Prices, because the Chinese Banks are displaying them in every branch. The key to this new demand appears to be PM and date, the fact they have a Panda on them is down the list of priorities, numismatics are not even considered. So the public don't know, or care what the difference is between a frosted or mirrored 2000 silver Panda... they just want a 2000 dated silver Panda coin, and the frosted is cheapest. IMHO frosted prices go up/mirrors go down. Effectively the price differential between common and rare Pandas narrows. [I believe a few other posts in this thread talk about prices already softening at the top end]

    So the reason I still think the public collecting Pandas is a bad idea is because they're doing it for the wrong reason and they/we are really fickle, So as PM prices increase, demand increases, Panda prices increase even faster (Supply is limited for most years) and the distinction between common and rare Pandas is eroded.

    When/if PM prices decrease this triggers a massive increase in supply as the general public offload them (they're not collecting them for the same reasons as us), therefore Panda prices collapse very quickly.

    Nice MS70 BTW, and 1g Panda are rare\expensive because you sneeze and it's gone!? :)
     
  15. Thor122

    Thor122 New Member

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    Reggie: good analisis. But you miss a important thing. People buying bullion and after it became collectors plus the chinese population. Now is a inmature market. The pms only will go up in the next 10 years (after it will see) with corrections in the middle. The chinese people have a long long long history of saving in gold and silver. Plus the same advantage you note the numismatic value of a pm coin not down the same than bullion bars when the spot down. I think the mayority of the panda forum people begin buying the bullion pandas and after know the market begin with the numismatic items.
     
  16. low

    low New Member

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    Hi Reggie,

    I agree with you. Honestly speaking that was the very reason I quit collecting panda after a very short 2 months. I still subscribe to pricepedia and enjoy reading. I love watching this market, but I don't think I will buy panda coin again, not at least in the foreseeable future.

    I don't buy the idea of immature market as no body knows when the market will mature. I don't buy the idea of rarity because rarity means different thing to different people. A $10000 Australian 1930 penny could be a rarity (actually false rarity) to someone who has only $1000 to spend, but is total rubbish to a millionaire.

    I am glad not many people outside of China is collecting China circulation coins. I am also glad it get a little mention in June pricepedia. I hope Peter will do another publication on this but let me grab as much as possible now. To me the circulation coins is powerful, every Chinese people know the coins. I love when I know there are a strong collector base in the market I involve in, and that is the reason I really feel excited about circulation coins. Way, way more exciting than the old China coins.
     

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