The problem with the bulls is that there is no logical argument that makes sense for the price of silver to be above $10/oz. Take the costs of mining. As explained in the thread What are the costs of mining silver? silver is often a byproduct of other mining (copper, nickel, gold, zinc, etc) so it probably cost $1 or so to produce one oz. Of course not all silver mined is a byproduct. However, even for the silver mines, the data they use are misleading. Some mines only operate when silver is $50. These have shut down already. Other mines operate with a profit only when silver is $20. These have also shut down. Others with silver at $15. These are still operating, but will eventually shut down. Etc. So when silver will be at $5 you will still have mines, but fewer. When the price goes up, other mines will open. So looking at the average costs of mining is useless: as the market price of silver decreases, the average cost of mining decreases too. That's what I learned from that thread. You should read it. So it's a question of demand and supply and price. The higher the price, the more the supply. This stabilises the price. Around what I don't know, but my guess is that this is the reason why silver has been about $6-8 for much of the last 100 years... And if you think that the bubble from 2008 is due to sudden decreasing supply of silver at cheaper prices all I can say is: hahaha
It's always a question of demand and supply. The higher the price, the more the supply. The higher the supply, the lower the price. The lower the demand, the lower the price. The higher the demand, the higher the price. Get the picture I'm drawing here? It's an interacting whole. A stable price trend means that all increases/decreases compensate for eachother. It's that simple. About 2008: Mine Production [SUPPLY] 1997 520.0 1998 542.1 1999 556.8 2000 591.0 2001 606.2 2002 593.9 2003 597.2 2004 613.6 2005 637.2 2006 641.3 2007 666.1 2008 683.0 2009 713.6 2010 752.7 2011 757.0 2012 787.0 Old Silver Scrap [SUPPLY] 1997 169.3 1998 193.9 1999 181.6 2000 180.7 2001 182.7 2002 187.5 2003 196.0 2004 198.7 2005 202.7 2006 206.2 2007 203.0 2008 200.8 2009 199.8 2010 228.8 2011 258.1 2012 253.9 Price: 1997 5.945 1998 5.549 1999 5.218 2000 4.9506 2001 4.3702 2002 4.5995 2003 4.8758 2004 6.6711 2005 7.3164 2006 11.5452 2007 13.3836 2008 14.9891 2009 14.6733 2010 20.1928 2011 35.1192 2012 31.1497 2013 23.7928 2014 20.3715 Look at how mine production had its peak in 2012 (and 2011 not that different) Look at how scrap recycling had its peak in 2011 (and 2012 not that different) Look at how annual average price had its peak in 2011 (and 2012 not that different) The difference between cheepskate typing, and reality as reflected by figures. And again the question: where were you, at recents $22? I didn't see your warnings about lower then. And let's not talk about 2012-2011-2010. Funneh eh, Mister King Cash wanting a Cheepo.
I already cited a site where cash costs are mentioned. And here is another study: http://www.pwc.com/ca/en/mining/publications/pwc-global-gold-price-survey-results-2013-12-en.pdf So, the all-in cost per slv oz is presently above 10$ and that is the logical argument. While you have... none.
You seem to miss the obvious. Silver and gold are competing commodities. They make nice jewelry. They make nice currency. The industrial uses do differ, but are comparable, if cost is disregarded. Silver is only a winner because it is relatively cheap. There is the issue of the supply of usable gold increasing, and usable silver decreasing, so if supply/demand theories are valid, silver is destined to overtake gold in value, all things being equal, which they seldom are. How is it possible to comment on the cost or price of silver, while ignoring the same issues with gold? Platinum as well for that matter. If silver at $10 is "logical", reasonable and rational, then GSR will be 120:1, or gold will be $600 (or much less, based on historical GSR charts), and I can see no "logical", reasonable or rational reasons for either of these to occur. Sorry, using logic you can't get there from here, certainly not that you have shown.
At the end of the day your silver is worth what you sell it for, not what the paper value of the times in between are... I think we can't really predict what will happen with prices.... Don't be harsh on me, my first post lol! I've only accumulated several kg's of Silver in the last 6 months..
Of course gold will go to $600/oz. It's obvious. Just look at the historic price. Or you think it will stay at 1,300? A bubble is a bubble is a bubble, and all bubbles burst. Why should it suddenly be worth double the historic average? I remind you that during the last 100 years we had a great depression, two world wars, etc., and that the average price of gold through all that was $600/oz (in 2012 $).
I don't know what is so difficult to understand. But thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify my thoughts. You see, not all mines have the same costs of mining. Some mines can do it for cheaper than others, and all mines have some areas that are cheaper to mine, and others that are more expensive. When the price of silver goes up, mines start mining silver that is more expensive to mine. This increases the cash costs. So it's not that higher cash costs increase the price of silver. No. It's the other way round. Higher prices of silver increase the cash costs. The consequence is that if the price of silver decreases, the mines will stop mining the more expensive deposits, and the cash costs will decrease. If the price of silver will drop to $6, then the cash costs will be $4, because all the deposits that cost more than $4 to mine will no longer be mined. Very simple. I hope I have been clear this time. Please let me know if you need further clarification. Thank you, and God bless.
When it was $22 I was regretting not buying when it was $19 When it was 30-40-50, I was shaking my head in disbelief that some people would actually buy something for 6 to 10 times more than it was worth. I still can't believe some people fell for the propaganda by the silver and gold bugs. Some people thought that silver will go up to $200 and gold to $5000? hahaha Now I provide a public service, warning people that the prices will drop, and to wait to buy And I hope you won't think that my warning has any influence on the price?!?!?! Do you really think that people reading silverstackers.com determine the price of silver? It is determined by Goldman Sachs, institutional investors, the Rothschilds, and other spongers, not by people who have time to read silverstackers.com
This is quite funny. The price went up from 19.05 to 19.39 in 34 minutes, and then to 19.46 in another 11 minutes. Unless 1/2 million people decided to buy 2 oz each at exactly the same time, Goldman Sachs decided it needed some more money Edit: another 22 cents in 10 minutes, from 11:11:00 too 11:21:00. I am watching The Goodfellas. They would have been proud it it! Pirocco, can you calculate how much silver has to be bought for this change? Is there a way to know where this silver was bought?
Ye, you don't know... You are very wrong because demand for silver is permanently high. Not long after cash costs or further all-in costs jump above silver spot price, miners will eventially shut down. And if they shut down, then the production will fall, supply will decrease and the prices rise. Finally, I will just directly prove that you are wrong: according to the CPM Group's Silver Yearbook (http://www.cpmgroup.com/our-market-views/press-releases/all/cpm-group-silver-yearbook-2013-released), silver cash costs reached $10.04 in 2012, up 19.0% from $8.44 in 2011, while the annual average price of silver has dropped by 11.7% in 2012. So, the reality of correspondance between price and cash-costs is just the opposite of what you are thinking. Regretfully, the only conclusion we can come here is that you... don't have clue. Sorry.
What is quite funny is that you are surprised. I'm not. Hence I created that topic yesterday that <this> dip was over. About amounts silver required to drive the price a certain change, this requires digging through a huge amount data and averaging it all, while trying to estimate missing data, but a very rude number is 60 Moz per dollar. That's an average of 3 different data series from the last 4-5 years. What is also funny is that you talk about Goldman Sachs, but in reality it's just a bunch people that ran to King Cash during the past months, that rushed back in, as I mentioned in that topic I talked about.
I am not surprised, but I think many people here are. They actually think it's the "market price". Haha. It's all manipulation. Sad thing, they (and you) have invested their money into it, without realising a few people are stealing their money, and becoming even richer with it. So, 60 M oz for 1$? The price went up from 19.05 to 19.63. That's 58 cents, so that would be 34.8 M oz, at 19.05, that would be $663 M. 1) Who has this kind of money? 2) Surely, the police should be able to find the people, if it looks.
No shit, sherlock? You got it all and you prove me wrong. Now, let me try to explain that to you again... No, on second thoughts, why bother? Re-read what I wrote, and if you don't get it, never mind. Go buy some silver, Goldman Sachs (or whoever is manipulating the price of silver) will be happy. I am going back to watch The Goodfellas. Great movie!
See, that's what the manipulators seem to do, they blame the manipulation on some others instead of the mirror. About 34.8 Moz, and who has this kind of money, who says that it's a 'who'? It can be 1000 people that bought back in. Or 10000. What's 34.8 Moz anyway? The ETF Ishares silver trust holds at the moment almost 10 times that much. A single futures market position has a 5000 ounces value basis. 34.8 Moz thus corresponds to 6960 positions. Well look at the evolution of the second figure, which is that amount positions: 22/04/2014 22773 $19.43 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 23820 Short 48885 SwapDealer Long 37554 Short 35262 ManagedMoney Long 34616 Short 28336 OtherReportables Long 11252 Short 3415 SmallTraders Long 23319 Short 14663 15/04/2014 23294 $19.45 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 25791 Short 51313 SwapDealer Long 38830 Short 36602 ManagedMoney Long 34228 Short 29085 OtherReportables Long 11729 Short 3773 SmallTraders Long 25549 Short 15354 08/04/2014 28905 $20.02 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 25042 Short 52219 SwapDealer Long 36331 Short 38059 ManagedMoney Long 34069 Short 25699 OtherReportables Long 10973 Short 3081 SmallTraders Long 25741 Short 13098 01/04/2014 28442 $19.80 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19082 Short 45201 Net: -26119 SwapDealer Long 35866 Short 38189 Net: -2323 ManagedMoney Long 33982 Short 25296 Net: 8686 OtherReportables Long 10163 Short 4345 Net: 5818 SmallTraders Long 25953 Short 12015 Net: 13938 25/03/2014 31755 $19.96 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18703 Short 46401 Net: -27698 SwapDealer Long 34545 Short 38602 Net: -4057 ManagedMoney Long 35672 Short 22876 Net: 12796 OtherReportables Long 9828 Short 3611 Net: 6217 SmallTraders Long 24600 Short 11858 Net: 12742 18/03/2014 35900 $20.84 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 19129 Short 52754 Net: -33625 SwapDealer Long 33469 Short 35744 Net: -2275 ManagedMoney Long 36611 Short 15963 Net: 20648 OtherReportables Long 8133 Short 4409 Net: 3724 SmallTraders Long 22942 Short 11414 Net: 11528 11/03/2014 37634 $21.32 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16258 Short 49448 Net: -33190 SwapDealer Long 30977 Short 35421 Net: -4444 ManagedMoney Long 35984 Short 12610 Net: 23374 OtherReportables Long 7902 Short 4612 Net: 3290 SmallTraders Long 22333 Short 11363 Net: 10970 04/03/2014 39769 $21.14 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15401 Short 49224 Net: -33823 SwapDealer Long 30829 Short 36775 Net: -5946 ManagedMoney Long 36276 Short 10709 Net: 25567 OtherReportables Long 8021 Short 5679 Net: 2342 SmallTraders Long 21588 Short 9728 Net: 11860 Just 2 months ago, it was 39769. A week and a half ago it was 22773 That's a delta of 16996, which corresponds to a 85 Moz silver value, so a move of over double the one that seems to surprise you, in just 8 weeks. So lol, are you jesting here your surprise or what is it?
8 weeks v. 45 minutes? Again, I am not surprised. I know that the price of silver is manipulated. And when was I when the price was at 22? (as you asked)? I was also fascinated by the manipulation. Every time it slowly (over many days) dropped to close to 20, it suddenly went up by $1 in one or two hours. Yeah right. As if this is not manipulation (as I wrote in another forum). Same like just now. I am surprised that some people actually buy and give Goldman Sachs (or whoever is behind this manipulation) their money. And Pirocco, advising people to buy just plays into the pocket of the manipulators...
Yes of course. For a simple reason: the element of surprise. "Rush" out and "rush in". The 2011 $32>$50 took 75 days. The $50>$32 took 3 days. And you can repeat your Goldman Sachs a dozen times, as said, check the mirror. A price does nothing. It is a consequence of trading people. Some talk about lower at a bottom, and talk about higher at a peak. That's what manipulation is, no matter the name haha.
I hate needles, probably the only thing that kept me off smack in the sixties. When you get a needle at the doctors, the clue is not to concentrate on the pin prick, the one about to pierce your flesh, not the flesh piercer. By putting all your concentration on the prick, the pain is intensified. However, by putting your thoughts to other matters, signage or pictures on the wall, the day's coming events, etc., you don't tend to notice the needle. Similarly, with silver spot. By concentrating on spot, the pain of a fall can be quite excruciating. The time line of this thread for instance. The US dollar strengthened on the expectation of further tapering. The Fed tapered, it strengthened further. As the dust settled, as "only" 45 billion was to be pumped into the economy for the month, the truth dawned again that the US economy is stuffed, the dollar dropped, silver went back up, and here we are again. Precious metals greatest alternative is the stock market. As QE pumps money into the economy, stocks keep increasing, this is despite the price/ earnings ratio being way out of skew. From memory, the PE use to be about 13, returning about 7.5% on investment! most stocks today are lucky to return a couple of percent with the PE over 50! When that penny drops, with the market wiped, only PM mining shares and PMs will be left standing. And what will drop the penny, other than the US economy, Ukraine/EU/NATO, the Euro, Japan, South America, China, the BRICs, a myriad of factors. The only constant we stackeratti have is the 31grams of silver in every ounce. When spot goes down, the troy ounce doesn't drop to 28 grams! We still have our ounce of silver. It is not enough to keep your stack out of the banking system, we need to keep our mind out of it also.
ha the grand manipulation... you have watched too many malooney videos Only a fool would keep playing in a game he knows manipulated, yet here you are.
What is the average amount that a person would buy? 1/2 kg? So you had 2 million people who suddenly decided to buy silver within one hour? And you believe that?
