The Federal Reserve is still waiting for the right moment to raise interest rates. Fed leaders decided not to increase the bank's key interest rate on Wednesday at the conclusion of a two-day meeting. The decision was largely expected by economists and investors who bet there was very little chance of a move. "Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy," said Janet Yellen, chair of the Fed. "It's better to err on the side of caution." Cnn
They are either going to have to hike the rate by year's end, or lose face. Now I do have a bet at times, but I'm not willing to go out on a limb for a few $$ and predict which way they'll go - hike, or lose face. A Trump victory may save Yellen's reputation if he does indeed push through and sack her as he claims. He wants interest rates lifted, and furthermore some commentators are seeing this latest move by The Fed as enough proof that interest rates will rise. Either way, it's not economics that is driving the decision making process, it's politics. The politics of power and reputation, they are all playing a game, intent upon maintaining their prestige and influence for as long as possible.
November is my guess for rate hike.. lose face is not something that USFed can "swallow" very well.... pride terms that is.
I'm expecting the rate rise in December regardless of who wins the election. That leaves it as late as possible while still allowing "face to be saved" In many respects I think the market reaction in December 2016 will be similar to December 2015, though possibly more volatile.
If December rates increase, Christmas will dull any reaction, with any subsequent calamity blamed on the new President.
Hell, yes! I would be all over that if those crooks would still let me bet with them. They will probably limit you to like a $25 maxbet though. My only caveat would be if Trump wins we could see calamity occur before then that might be the only thing to put them off raising. So I'd be tempted to see if they would allow a multi-bet link up with Hillary to win the election. Considering her odds are probably too short I'd maybe cover my stake with a bet on Trump. So either :- 1 unit Hillary to win (1.53) INTO Reserve to lift rates in 2016 (1.90) @ 2.907 OR 1 unit Reserve to lift rates in 2016 @ 1.90 0.5 unit Trump to win @ 3.00 Would be happy to send you some cash if you can get on for a decent stake and want to limit your risk
Have a read of this one :- http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/21/december-rate-hike-odds-hold-higher-after-fed-statement.html A 62% chance of rise in December equates to implied odds of 1.61 so that 1.90 on offer at Sportsbet is cracking value.
@BuggedOut, took the odds on offer at Sportsbet for a 2016 rate hike, couldn't lay a multi with Clinton, took Trump as a hedge to cover my total outlay but best was $2.70, other markets had him at $2.60. Risking my Xmas beer money there I am.
Nice one. If you like a bet you simply must get an account with Betfair :- http://sports.betfair.com You can get some action on Trump there at 3.10 (minus 5% commission still comes out at about 3.00) Betting on an exchange not only gives you better value, but you take business away from the crooks like Sportsbet
i think it's clear what the FED is doing. If Trump wins they will raise rates and then blame the market crash on him, but if Hillery wins they will keep it on hold or do more QE.
Not really. I do think that if Trump wins and the market crashes then he'll get the blame. My thought was the market might crash just because he wins (or is assassinated) - before they even get a chance to raise rates I'd be expecting a "Brexit-like" market reaction to his victory. Hillary has got to cop some rate rise pain though if she wins. Obama had the GFC to deal with when he first got the job so it could be her baptism of fire The other thing is regardless of who wins, Obama is in the seat until January, so maybe he'll take one for the team in December if Hillary wins? If Trump wins Obama might just push for a smooth incident free exit and let the SHTF once he's gone and can wash his hands of the fallout mess. Then it would ALL fall on Trumps watch.
