[News] Canadian Maple Fail - Panda Comparison

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Jul 17, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So, it's been a very busy day at the Panda Forum, with a standard auction and FLASH auction bringing a lot of excitement and action.

    After almost a week of being unable to sell ANY Canadian Maples, I sold ONE today - for $40... which is less than the standard monster box price.

    In comparison, the Panda Forum saw 5x 2010 Pandas move within 1 hour of listing for $65each.

    Just goes to show, Pandas give not only give better returns over time, but are also more liquid.
    http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...010-1oz-silver-panda-ending-in-60minutes.html

    Makes sense when you consider there are only about 10,658,000 1oz Silver Pandas in existence, compared against 39,240,718 Canadian Maples.

    Funny pic goes to petercamperdown and his sniper panda.
    [​IMG]
     
  2. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Seriously surprised your maples didn't sell yennus considering they were bloody good pricing!
     
  3. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah... supply and demand... supply and demand... High Canadian Maple supply... Low Canadian Maple demand...

    Free market forces at work at Silverstackers.
     
  4. jpanggy

    jpanggy New Member

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    if you are desperate, should try ebay. of course at the price that would guarantee good return for you.

    Make sure no milkspots though, otherwise there will be dispute.
     
  5. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hahaha... the dreaded milkspots... I should bring that up next time someone uses the SHTF argument against Pandas.

    "But when TEOTWAWKI happens, it doesn't matter if the Maples have milk spots." ahhaha :) ... and yet they still won't touch em.
     
  6. jpanggy

    jpanggy New Member

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    well, I think the maples are beautiful, I like them. ASE is not as well detailed and the shine is just not quite there.

    But the milkspots are really a turnoff. So ... for maples, I only get their gold.
     
  7. jpanggy

    jpanggy New Member

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    unfortunately kooks are not a worldwide icon.

    Pandas, Kangaroos, Koalas, Maples, Eagles and other easily identified animals are.

    Kooks should be a premium item, but the limited knowledge of them makes them a rare item in a pool of small number of collectors, namely australians.

    Thus, the demand for them is comparatively low.

    If anyone is interested in driving the price of kooks, introduce it to the worldwide community, make the chinese collect these stuff, then the price will exceed even the pandas. Until then ... no premium for you kooks.
     
  8. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hahah... yeah, we've been through this before :)

    10,658,000 1oz Silver Pandas for a population of 1,300,000,000 people. So only 1oz Panda per 122 people.
    7,000,000 1oz Kooks for a population of 22,000,000. So 1oz Kook per 3 people.

    The Chinese alone (not including worldwide demand for Pandas) are more supply strapped than Australians by 40times.
     
  9. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    Kooks are popular on Kitco with the US crowd, and in Europe too. So worldwide demand does have to be taken into account - although domestic demand will probably always have the strongest influence.
     
  10. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    Kookaburras too :rolleyes:
     
  11. jpanggy

    jpanggy New Member

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    not as popular or not as hyped up as the pandas are.

    if anyone can successfully hype up kooks like the pandas, the price will be insane
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I respectfully disagree with your statement "I don't think that comparing local population numbers really counts for anything...". I think local population numbers count for very much... BUT EVEN IF that were the case...

    Considering the amount of debt that the average Australian is in, I doubt the average Australian's ability to afford Kooks is much greater than the average Chinese person's ability to afford Pandas.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia "figures show mortgage, credit card and personal loan debts now stand at $1.2 trillion, up 71 per cent from just five years ago and equating to $56,000 for every man, woman and child in the country." (Source: Sydney Morning Herald, December 2009) [http://australia.creditcards.com/cr...-card-debit-card-statistics-international.php]

    That means a lot of average sheeple Australians can't afford to buy Kooks, and if they do own Kooks, their net position would still be in debt. [Silverstackers of course aren't the average Australian... we're special]

    The average China man/woman is a net saver. So even if their income is a fraction of the average Australian's, they can realistically afford Pandas if they so desired. This may surprise many:

    "... while 85% of Chinese households surveyed owned a home, only 11% carried a mortgage on that property. In the United States 69% were homeowners in 2007, with 70% of them carrying some debt on the property, in the form of a mortgage or a home-equity loan." I imagine the stats would be very similar in Australia, where the vast majority of homeowners are in debt.

    http://blogs.forbes.com/moneybuilde...between-chinese-and-american-households-debt/ - Sorry I don't have an Aussie article on hand, but this should suffice for the moment.
     
  13. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Absolutely agree... and I do hope so... I got heaps of Kooks...

    Just for fun:
    I'll probably do a flash auction on an ancient Kook and a flash auction on an ancient Panda, and let's see what prices we get.

    "Hopefully" some Kook fan will bid up the price on the Kook :)

    But I'm fairly confident that the force (market force) is with the Panda. :)

    So far return on investments:

    1993 Panda vs 1993 Roo: Panda absolutely hammers Roo in returns. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11808-pr-why-pandas-are-a-good-better-best-investment.html
    1994&2008 Panda vs 1994&2008 ASE: Pandas absolutely hammers ASEs in returns. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11885-news-two-ms-69-ases-go-for-100-panda-comparison.html
    2010 Panda vs 2010 Maple: Panda absolutely hammers Maple in returns. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11907-news-canadian-maple-fail-panda-comparison.html
    Panda vs Kook: This should be exciting :) ... The Kook has home advantage... :)

    As John Adams once said "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
    Pandas simply give a much better return than Roos, ASEs and Maples... We'll find out how Pandas stack up against Kooks in a few hours hopefully :)
     
  14. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    EVEN IF we underestimate the Panda's worth at $50each... that is still $10 more than what I (or anyone) could get with a Maple.

    One for one, Pandas outperform Maples... there's just no other reasonable way of seeing it.
     
  15. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    At present Maples are going for $41, and 2011 Pandas are going for $45. Even with the increased mintage of 2011 Pandas, there will be less supply of Pandas worldwide, causing the prices of 2011 Pandas to rise disproportionately faster than a 2011 Maple.

    It's a simple case of supply and demand.

    Just look at the prices of 2010 Pandas, there were a lot of those coins minted too, and their returns are significantly higher than any other standard ASE/Maple minted in 2010.
     
  16. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    I provided a link in another thread where the Pandas could be bought for a lot less than $55 US. A more fair comparison would be to compare 2010 Lunars with 2010 Pandas. Lunars have less of an original premium than Pandas. I bought some of both coins last fall and the premiums were (Lunars $4.00 vs. Pandas$7.25 ). From viewing ebay, the Lunars are selling for a higher price than the Pandas and your initial investment is lower.

    nwtmint.com has 2009 Pandas for about $52.40 and about $64.89 with 24k gold plating. I am sure I could find other sources with similar pricing if I was interested in spending more than a couple of minutes. With the rise in silver prices, those Pandas are now about $6 higher than when I posted that information on June 28th.
     
  17. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    2010 Lunars were covered here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...ight-club-2010-panda-vs-2010-lunar-tiger.html

    Additional Lunar/Panda comparisons can be found here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11917-chinese-panda-vs-perth-mint-lunar-bu-silver.html

    Ebay is not the Panda's playground. The premiums are too high, and it's easier to list them here than on Ebay.
    Here are some people/places that sell Lunars and/or Pandas which have been recommended by people that buy Pandas.
    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11747-safe-people-to-buy-pandas-from.html

    That's great, if you have ordered from them before, and are recommending them as a reliable source, then add them to the list above. But from an email I sent to them, my reply was that they have limited stock and will not be replenishing their stock.
     
  18. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    Yennus you used Apmex to help justify your pricing and they had less than 15 coins. I countered that there were other sources available like nwtmint that had lower prices and provided the link. So I don't understand what nwtmint having limited stock has to do with this debate.

    My point on the Pandas is that Pandas are cheaper on ebay (and other places) than here. Lunars are cheaper here than on ebay. You should take that as a complement to your marketing skills. The price difference on the 2010 Pandas between ebay and here would pay for my travel to AU. Note that I have over 100 2010 Pandas.
     
  19. Chillidog

    Chillidog New Member Silver Stacker

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    Thank god we all like different things. Imagine the price rise if we all bought the same thing. Look at the 66 50's a few months ago. If you don't want your pandas I'll give them a home same for maples even with spots, never see the spots ( milky or red) after they are melted.
     
  20. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As stated before, Ebay is not the Panda's playground. The premiums are too high, and it's easier to list them here than on Ebay.
    Here are some people/places that sell Lunars and/or Pandas which have been recommended by people that buy Pandas.
    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic- -from.html

    That's good, keep stacking.

    I have used APMEX to justify pricing because they have regular stock of Pandas (unlike nwtmint - who no one else has recommended for Pandas). I could have also recommended http://www.pandaamerica.com/ ; but since APMEX sells a range of bullion and doesn't specialize in Pandas I think APMEX is a better guide.
     

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