Nearmap Ltd (NEA)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by Bullion Stacker, Jan 10, 2015.

  1. Bullion Stacker

    Bullion Stacker New Member

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    Anyone following this stock?

    AN aerial mapping specialist, with an income cashflow from subscribers. Customers have included the Public Transport Authority of Western Australia, Sydney's Hornsby Shire Council, WA utility Western Power and engineering firm Cardno. A plus is cash on the balance sheet, and a licensing agreement with Google. The company has begun an expansion project expanding in the USA and a little in Canada. Stocks are up over 1500% from December 2012 from 4.2c to its current SP of 64c.

    Although they hold a licensing agreement with Google, I am not sure exactly what the terms are but I am personally concerned about Googles ability to be able to produce such high resolution images in a heart beat and run Nearmap out of business. Is that statement wrong? Opinions please.

    Regardless, this stock looks extremely promising both short and long term, considering entering at the current SP, might wait for a dip.
     
  2. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    Would have to know how good their technology is and what is USP is vs similar aerial imaging technologies.

    Civilian satellites are getting better and better (60cm resolution) but if Google has genuine interest it does say something and opens doors to all sorts of expansion since Google wants to make it's imaging products as global (universal) as possible.

    Important to determine whether they have a product pipeline with development going on or of they will be stuffed when their core technology is out of date. I know that some of the most amazing advances in this sort of imaging technology like the military ARGUS-IS use off the shelf phone cameras and that similar highly effective and relatively cheap civilian systems in this vein is likely to be introduced soon. Stiff competition.

    If Google like them that much though you might be looking at a buy out, they like doing that.
     
  3. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep

    got in around 40c when they started making a real profit
    out at the moment only because I wanted to use the money for something else short term
    looking to get back in again


    extremely good prospects as long as the management don't do something stupid

    Yes - the biggest threat I have always seen to their business model is Google deciding to compete directly with them
    They do have some patents but legally would have a tough time fighting a company the size of Google
     
  4. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    Certainly wouldn't want to be a private owned company, take our reasonable but low offer to buy your company or we will pull our business and you can talk to us in 9 months when you're near broke.
     
  5. clancy

    clancy New Member

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    Re, Civilian satellites are getting better and better (60cm resolution)

    NearMap uses Planes and can go down to 2 cm resolution.

    Try it for free: http://us.nearmap.com/
     
  6. smk762

    smk762 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    It's called orthophotography, and planes being closer to Earth mean higher res. They charge more than some Goverment depts can afford for a licence but the images are great. Only issue is they weren't perfectly georeferenced last time I checked a year or two ago, but they should have that under control by now.
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Stocksinvalue doesn't cover small start-up companies like Nearmap, but below is the summary of fy14 results. It's why I can't take an interest in companies like this anymore. Insignificant history of earnings. Priced for future expected growth eps, not current eps . As raised already on this thread you don't really know what issues might arise in the future to wreck the business model and earnings growth expectations, e.g. powerful a business rival like Google, flash in the pan technological advantage, enough customers able to pay the desired margin.

    Carsales, Seek, Realestate.com.au, Sirtex - companies like those were great to buy the shares of very early and then ride out the temporary vicissitudes but you needed specialist knowledge of their fields of operation to buy and hold with commitment.


    Nearmap (NEA) is a current Buy recommendation of Motley Fool's small company speculative tip-sheet called 'Hidden Gems'. Motley tipped it after trading hrs on 30/04/14 and the closing price next day was 42c, so the gain from there to last recorded price has been 52% during a period where the All Ords gained 3% (for comparison)

    Chart looks to be in retracement mode, looks a bit flabby esp after this last week - just my view. But noticeably, going right back, and including last 6 months, peaks in volume are mostly positive volume

    All Data Weekly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_nea_all_data_weekly.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  8. Bullion Stacker

    Bullion Stacker New Member

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    Anyone else being a little cautious of the high P/E ratio? Obviously this stock is based on its future earnings rather then it's current which explains the current P/E ratio but still being cautious
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A stock can sustain a high P/E as long as market participants are confident about ongoing growth of earnings (i.e. not just next year but further). The minute there's a downgrade of guidance, or an actual earnings disappointment, or anything that comes up to cloud the future then sellers will start to tear down the premium. It will correct harder than a normal P/E stock because there will be an adjustment of price to reflect lower earnings PLUS lower growth expectation.

    If they have been paying a price of 30x earnings (30 x E) and then future growth become clouded, the price might be pushed down to 15 x lower expected earnings (15 x e)
    So a double whammy is what I'm trying to express - a lower P/E applied to a lower expected earnings. That's why high pe stocks are more risky imo, particularly new growth stocks
     
  10. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Got back in today @ 0.525

    don't expect it to drop below 50c but who knows where the day traders will take it
    will definitely pick up more if it gets down to 40c (assuming no bad news that is)
     
  11. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    woohoo

    Australian revenue up 30% and US revenue growing

    Stock up 28% today
     
  12. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    yeah baby

    US revenue picking up and Aus still growing


    closed 91c - up 29% today - all time high
     
  13. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    NEA weekly chart:
    [​IMG]
     
  14. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    still holding :)

    almost a six-bagger

    No real competition in the US - closest competitor still provides only emailed quotes
    They just bought out Nearmap's competitor in Aus to get access to similar tech but are still years behind

    I also have 3DP which is still early stages but the Nearmap CEO Rob Newman is a director - waiting to see if NEA and 3DP join forces at some point
     

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