OK so right now the bottles of champagne are out and its back slapping all over the place for all us silver investors. I'm sure tho for some of us who look at the charts over the last 10 years there is a nagging trend. Every time silver starts to peak it drops back down with out fail, almost at two year intervals. It drops back down mercilessly back to half its price of there abouts. This time round its been the highest rise ever in the last 10 years so the drop (if the trend persists ) will be the biggest, whats most annoying is not the drop but the length that it trades sideways , which is almost like two years, which i see as wasted investment time. Is looking at this trend annoying people, playing tricks on your mind in the back of your head ?!
No champagne or back slapping here ... Just a lingering feeling that we are currently in the calm before the economic storm. I try to: * ignore the charts, and look at the fundamentals * use big dips as a buying opportunity
I'm long on physical. I don't see the market in terms of it's paper value. I don't see silver 'going up' as much as 'fiat crashing'. Completely different mindset. Once you know, understand and appreciate the fundamentals, the rest really doesn't matter. It can reaffirm your convictions on what you know (which is heart warming) but you always have to remember this is a *strongly* manipulated market. Eventually, the controls will fail and the market will set the price accordingly. Until then, this is really all just noise. Enjoy the ride, but don't get overly caught up in the rush of excitement. I only look for an opportunity to buy. A 'crash' in my mind would be most welcome.
Is there any good way to determine what the accorded price would be? I've been thinking about it and can't see a way of working out (hypothetically) whether it has already happened or not, or whether it would happen at $1,000/
I think on Silver Stackers we all need to take a fresh look at supply and demand dynamics for Silver. I am starting to get a bit worried. Investment demand is speculative (I'm not sure I buy the silver is being re-monetized argument, even though I can buy that argument for gold) and can fall away just as quickly as it has risen. Industrial demand though rising currently may take a hit in a global recession/growth slow down. Also how quickly will it rise? The supply side is where things get interesting. With copper prices near record highs copper mining output is likely to rise over the next few years thus increasing the supply of silver being mined through by product mining. Also at $38 AUD per ounce one would start to think that more pure play (or at least majority silver focused mines) will come on stream over the next few years. If you look at the silver mines that are predominantly silver focused the average cost of production is probably about $15 an ounce meaning that there is plenty of incentive to increase supply at these prices. Rising supply of silver could cause problems if there are any drops in demand (as discussed in my first paragraph). I think somebody on the forum should post up some stats about silvers cost of production and projected future supply, as this would help us all to make more informed decisions. However all of the above being said it could take a few more years for increased supply to come online meaning the silver bull market has a few years left.
Considering we haven't had a non manipulated market in a very long time, certainly not in the modern age.... how long is a piece of string? No idea.
I dont know why people dont worry more about technical as well as fundamentals (both are important if you wanna minimize loss) I am currently at two minds at the moment ... One thing i never understand is when people say "dont look at it in terms of fiat". WHY i dont understand this is, FIAT is what "right now" buys you food. Lets ignore stocks, ignore all other financial instruments and just look at what Fiat can buy you RIGHT NOW. If silver follows the same trend as it has for the last 10 years , the charts put it at a correction really soon (not saying it will but lets just say we applied all the technical analysis we can and we come to this conclusion) If you have 1000 ounces of silver which lets say =~ 40,000 USD, then a sudden tank in price could set you back 15,000 USD, down from 40K to 25K ! How can anyone on this forum who is super bull on silver (and not considering the possibility of a price drop) not even care about this. Even if silver does go to 100 per ounce, which i think it will in another 2-3 years but firstly corrects down to 25-28 before it does it just means for the time it takes for the price to go up again (lets say 1-2 years) you just lost money (alot of it, if you have 1000 ounces) if anything it means your silver can no longer buy you the same amount of bread, fuel and rice (within that period of time) This has to matter right ?! The inflation that we get in the one year , whilst we wait for the price to rise again probably would not out pace the loss of *wealth* of a silver price drop to 25 per oz ! Means the argument about silver being a hedge against inflation is a moot point ?! Im sure if it does happen , people would be feeling pretty crap, if you look at the last 10 years for the charts it takes about 2 years (or so) for recovery to start again. Its like dropping 15K out of your wallet , then someone finding it and giving it to you 1 or 2 years later, im sure this would matter to everyone and for a few months after it happend you'd be pretty pissed/sad/angry (however you react to loosing money ). Put it this way, im a bull too and got a decent amount of gold and silver (hence me being here) its just it seems the only BIG silver bull that i have seen on the net or anywhere that has given a correction abit of a thought is stella
Dont know what BTFD is but im talking about the regulars that make videos on youtube , i think there are about 5-6 of those guys that i know of
good post pmstacker i feel the same everyone says dont worry about the dollar value but then yahoos at the chart about the dollar value. For me its all about the dollar value & i will say it again when it gets to $X il be selling some & having some fun
In my opinion it all depends on your circumstances, if you cannot afford to lose the implied "value" for a certain amount of time then invest in something else like cash or bonds as silver as a investment has inherent risk of dropping in value for a period of time. For people who can afford to hold such investments and understand the risks the go ahead and stack all you want.
I think this comes back to why you are buying silver. If it is for value protection then it doesn't matter what price it is - your theory is that you will buy the same amount of "bananas" no matter what - therefore you shouldn't celebrate if it hits $40, $400 or $4 because you haven't made or lost anything - in your theory you can still only buy X "bananas". If you are buying it for investment purposes however - then you are bringing it back to "how much am I increasing my investment pie". Now it matters what price it gets to and how much it crashes because it does vary the size of your pie. If this is the case then fundametal and technical analysis is very valid. I challenge any silver owner to not care about the price of silver. If you can honestly say "I can buy silver at any price because I am protecting my purchasing value" then it should also be no problem to buy real estate in today's "overpriced" market as you obviously dont need to worry about the price of future real estate - real estate hasn't crashed - it's just that the "fiat" has increased! malachii malachii
pmstacker, patience is the hallmark of successful investors. Without patience you will eventually lose big time. One or 2 years isn't a long time in the investment world. If you think something is undervalued and it drops in price and it becomes more undervalued just buy some more while you wait for it to go up. If it keeps dropping buy even more.
It isnt a long time agreed but the reverse logic is, imagine we where in on stocks when it was in a bull run, still had stocks now after the 2008 crash and cant sell otherwise we would lock in our losses. If we were in this situation , which i know a few of my friends are (and who are still licking their wounds after 2008 crash)and we see assets like silver going up and cant invest cause money is locked in somewhere else it would be really annoying. i mean i see silver recovering as opposed to banking stocks that were way over valued during the happy days and i guess this is a big difference as there will be light at the end of a silver correction as opposed to banking stocks i guess (just gotta look at stocks such as NAB) big failure there. The main point is its, all about the time you could have invested in the other asset. I mean yeh you could use more money to invest in the new rising and undervalued commodity/asset at the time, but you need to make sure you dont over extend or over expose your self ... basically i see it as lost investment time or lost opportunity whilst waiting for the silver leg up to start again. Im still very bullish on silver in the long run FOR sure but i hate wasting time too if the price does tank severely and i guess thats where the dilema is , thats why i like seeing videos that discuss both sides of the coin not just the standard, super bullish videos that have been around for ages. malachii has made some very good points there too, you must care about the price of silver thats why you buy it.... everything we do is relative to a price whether its to preserve our ability to buy things now at this price or to make a little profit. I guess basically what im saying is, good to look at both sides of the story.
