So I was thinking last night we are probably approaching the bottom, no specific time frame, but that we are on the way there. So then I started thinking, without a specific time frame, how will it look when it happens, what could we use to say yep, it's happening. Most of agree that another US recession is likely in our future, some think it's more imminent than others but it's probably safe to assume that one is coming. Silver typically takes a dive in a recession, at least at the beginning due to lack of demand. I also think another US recession will trigger another round of money printing and I see that as the key moment to be on the lookout for. So it seems to me that silver will continue to decline, maybe by not much, maybe by a lot, until the US hits another recession, then decline a bit more significantly from that time until the FED announces another round of QE, and at that point it will have hit bottom and turn around. Based on that, it seems to me that it would be smart to stack fiat, or even short silver if your into that, until the US economy contracts, then make a big buy when there is talk of more QE coming our way. Thoughts?
This is what I had in mind, too. Another round of QE actually is not that far away, I would guess by election year 2016. My trading advice is to short gold and silver on any pop now, and cover your position by the end of the year.
The significant bottom that you were thinking about; maybe is the time when many bullion dealers and LCS go belly up. And miners are sold or acquired or bankrupted. Patiently wait for that moment to back up the truck!
Bear in mind that at an availability of 1,000 million ounces per year or US$16.5 billion dollars worldwide, there will be not much to go around. Any thoughts of backing the truck up then will be futile. The large funds and corporations will be buying at the source. Silver will go exponential. I think we are near enough to the bottom, buy now while there is plenty to share, otherwise you'll look the turkey having predicted it for so long, only to lose out when it matters.
Many peeps backed up their trucks when silver was 19 USD last year. Where are they now ? There is no panic in the silver stacker community, so far. No hurry
I visits many precious metal forums on a daily basis. Trust me, the sentiment is NOT signaling a bottom. Peeps are still dreaming big and kept showing others what they bought. I don't even need to study the charts or futures report; I just know that precious metal is farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr from the bottom.
Remember when peeps showed off their newly bought houses in 2007? Remember when coin clubs were full of peeps in 2011? Remember when janitors were recommending you stocks in 1999?
How far is far? If silver loses its investment status, there is still 75% industrial and jewellery demand. That would indicate a bottom of about US$12 at worst. I think that there are enough hardy investors to stop that happening. If we are not in a bottom now, it's at least the trough. I would not wait.
I agree with Niveka, that when next recession hits; there will be NO demand from industrial and jewellery either. That's time to buy!
I have said it before and will say it again, if your waiting for that mythical "bottom" then your not really a silver stacker, but you are a silver arm chair watcher, how many times have we heard this guy or that guy say I am not buying until this price or that price, I call BS on that , its just an excuse , if your not buying then your not stacking period! Keep waiting for that bottom lol, you could be dead by then.
Northerncoins does have a point. But for me, $15 is a psychological level for people/investors alike.
Not sure what to say, does that mean I have to give back my Members-Only jacket Seriously though, I have bought an ounce or two before and have every intention of buying another one, just trying to decide when to pull the trigger that's all.
