Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    22.6%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    37.6%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    24.1%
  4. It's not a bubble

    15.8%
  1. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    seems to be panic redemptions during the ust crash, a good arb opportunity during the panic. since then its been 4 days without any redemptions. but yeah, logic doesnt fit the tether fud.
     
  2. Aelfred

    Aelfred Active Member

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    For someone who 6 months ago had no idea of Tether's proven in court, and confessed printing of unbacked imaginary USD, and how Bitcoin was manipulated way up by the printing of unbacked imaginary USD by the operator of Mt Gox, which by the way, was also proven in court, and confessed, you sure seem to know the intricacies of how Tether operates now.

    Stop drinking the cool aid. I don't even care about your opinion on Bitcoin but stop using the words "presumably" and "probably" and instead open your eyes on Tether.

    This information is public and undeniable, because Tether themselves admit it:
    • They have confessed to printing Tether with absolutely no backing.
    • It was proven in court that they printed Tether with absolutely no backing.
    • They have promised an audit every year for 7 years, including last year when it was "months away", and never delivered
    • When asked why they don't provide the promised audit to silence the critics, their answer was literally "we dont want to give our secret sauce"
    • They stole $850,000,000 from Tether in 2018, they lied and denied it publicly and said it was just FUD, until it was revealed in court.
    • They lied and denied being affiliated with Bitfinex, until it was revealed in the Panama Papers that they were the same company
    • They claim to be one of the largest holders of bonds in the entire world, only just behind Amazon (!!!), despite not a single person on the planet in that market coming forward and saying they have ever done business with Tether, and nobody can find a single person in that market who has ever done business with them
    • They bought their own private bank (to get rid of oversight?), they fired their auditor for asking too many questions, they have done pretty much everything Ponzi himself did to make sure nobody can see their "secret sauce"

    The secret sauce is fraud. It's not rocket science. A couple of Italians with shady backgrounds and sizeable criminal records in online fraud, particularly fraud in the online casino realm in the 00's, don't have $80 billion dollars in a bank. They're lying, and you and all the other millions of suckers are ignoring all of the above proven and admitted points because you're greedy and think you're all going to be rich for no effort. It's that simple.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Point 1: You must be confusing me with some imaginary other. Basically since the time you joined this forum around a year ago and began posting your accusations that USDT was used to manipulate the price of BTC because it is not 100% backed by USD I stated 1. that's not evidence that it manipulates the market and 2. that I don't really care if it's not backed entirely by USD. I didn't deny that it wasn't backed 100%, it's in plain sight for all to see. I simply don't care. And that view is shared by thousands of others in the space obviously otherwise its MC wouldn't be so large. See https://www.silverstackers.com/foru...-the-crypto-bubble.87398/page-57#post-1222095.

    But still you return to banging on about "backing" in defence of your manipulation conspiracy theory. Manipulation of the price of BTC and Tether's dubious statements around its assets are two different things. Your first post on the topic was largely a cut and paste relying entirely on a report compiled by an anonymous author. Now in academic circles credibility and reputation go hand in hand, anonymity is left for spooks and letters to the editor, and online forums obviously.

    Point 2: learn how a Ponzi actually operates.

    Point 3: don't resort to ad hominem.

    The choice of words I use reflects my view on the market, not on Tether's assets. In the current climate it is likely that the recent fall in MC for USDT is a result of market participants redeeming USDT for fiat or possibly other crypto assets though that is a less likely scenario. Similar strategies are probably the reason for break downs in the apparent symbiotic movement between the price of BTC and USDT MC in the past. This is absolutely normal price behaviour in any market, but in the crypto space it is magnified due to the volatile nature of the still maturing asset.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2022
  4. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Screen Shot 2022-05-19 at 9.35.17 am.png

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/celsius-cryptocurrency-investors-losses-51652906401

    "
    Tensions are boiling over at the giant crypto lending platform Celsius Network. Some customers say they were unfairly wiped out in the recent crash and its chief executive says unknown malefactors are trying to bring down his company.

    While it is little known outside crypto circles, Hoboken, N.J.-based Celsius Network LLC is one of the largest crypto-lending firms in the world, with more than $11 billion worth of assets, according to the company. It is part of a fast-growing ecosystem of firms that take cryptocurrency deposits and pay investors extremely high yields. Celsius also lets investors take out loans at low rates, with crypto as collateral.

    The firms have lately come under pressure on two fronts. Regulators claim they operate outside the law. And the crash of BitcoinBTCUSD –1.16% and other cryptocurrencies has erased hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, in some cases leading panicked customers to withdraw their funds.
    "
     
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  5. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    this is how it will start
    this is how it will end
    it is just a matter of how much longer cryptos can find new money to prop up the market, when that resource dries up the price will stagnate, people will lose their appetite having so much money in such a high risk assets when their is no real upside, they will pull out and wont find buyers. they will then drop their price to meet the market, get picked up by "bargain buyers" who still have faith till they all get used up
    then they will discover the utility value which i have previously argued is $0
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    What market or asset on Earth doesn't rely on that happening to drive gains?


    An argument that has no basis in reason nor reality.
     
  7. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Confession through projection?
    Just saying that it's all a matter of perspective and many here believe your argument could be described the same way.
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Perspective can be clouded by poor judgment or a lack of information. You see no utility beyond transaction/investment. I've pointed out that that position is erroneous. Just as I pointed out that your latest claim regarding "new money" is hardly a valid argument.
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Why we assign value to cryptocurrencies:

    1. Scarce
    2. Secure (cannot be counterfeited)
    3. Decentralised
    4. Fungible
    5. Non-consumable
    6. Portable
    7. Durable
    8. Divisible
    9. Programmable

    Cronsumers derive utility from cryptocurrencies because of the above values we assign to them. I can't think of another asset class or good that provides consumers with such a wide opportunity to satisfy our needs.
     
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  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not taking any sides by posting this - just seeing it's rainy weekend coming (at least here in QLD) some of you might have spare time to listen this. (jump to 8:45min to skip the preamble)
    Contains balanced and coherent arguments, imo. Both sides of the debate may be surprised.

    https://open.spotify.com/show/0Vd8E5vWnCfB4xucu87WNZ

    cc @Aelfred

    Screen Shot 2022-05-19 at 12.48.23 pm.png
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ is that Marty from "Tales of the Crypt" fame?
     
  12. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I believe it is, yes. I thought it was interesting.

    Screen Shot 2022-05-19 at 1.13.14 pm.png
     
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  13. PMCollector

    PMCollector Well-Known Member

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    There's a few more but couple more you maybe can add to yr list...
    Verifiable
    Established history (yet to to proven to the extent of gold obviously)
    Censorship resistant
    Privacy
     
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  14. PMCollector

    PMCollector Well-Known Member

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    There is actually a couple more , but i am not smart enough to put it into single words.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Why we assign value to cryptocurrencies:

    1. Scarce
    2. Secure (cannot be counterfeited)
    3. Decentralised
    4. Fungible
    5. Non-consumable
    6. Portable
    7. Durable
    8. Divisible
    9. Programmable
    10. Verifiable
    11. Established history
    12. Censorship resistant
    13. Privacy
    14. Income producing
     
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  16. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Scarce? In what way are cryptos scarce?
    Some Doge hodlers wishing for that right now haha.
     
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  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I still chuckle that "Tangible" is missing from that list.
    I thought that was one of the guiding principles in the philosophies that formed the foundational basis of this entire PM forum? ;)
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    You're conflating the various cryptocurrency projects. DOGE has an infinite mintage, BTC doesn't.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Why? Cryptocurrencies aren't tangible. That's why it's not on the list.

    That my friend is a red herring.

    But to address your point, as humans we assign value to both tangible and intangible things. The concept of property rights for example can't be touched, but we still hold them to be a fundamental human right.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2022
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  20. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I totally agree that value can be assigned to the intangible. I do it all the time.
    However, that circumvents my point.
    If such an intangible asset was so vocally revered on this forum a decade ago, then you would have been berated and mob-beaten by the blind-faith PM bugs (as I was back then).
    How things have changed over the years...... makes me chuckle because there is a little bit of self-satisfaction for me watching this 10 years later.
     
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