Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is the problem with cryptocurrency. It has become an absolutely bonkers casino and with ETFs diverting inflows, you have a two pronged attack on Bitcoin. The way silver and gold are manipulated, bitcoin will be too.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Thread waaaay to long for me to get anything meaningful from it. My eyes just glassed over.

    I'm from the camp that doesn't believe that the gold and silver markets are manipulated. Does that mean your thesis is discredited?
     
  4. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No just means you’re out of touch with reality.
    Are you still in STX?
     
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  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    IMG_4199.png

    Number get bigger
    Big number bad
    Small number means more moneys for bitcoin
    Bitcoin good
    Altcoin bad
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm not sure that a correlation exists, from the bottom of the last bear market in 2022 the number of tokens has doubled, yet the market cap of BTC has more than quadrupled and it's ranked 2nd by volume traded over the past 24 hours. Of course there's no arguing that the more competition for investment funds there is dilutes investor interest, but it hasn't seemed to impact the price of BTC.

    BTC_All_graph_coinmarketcap (1).jpeg

    Further, how does the guy identify money entering the crypto market from venture capitalists?
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Nah, my view is that the gold and silver market is manipulated is a false premise.

    Therefore the conclusion that the price of BTC is also manipulated is wrong.

    Cashed out 18 months ago I think. Maybe more, maybe less, I've moved on so I don't remember exactly.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2024
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  8. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Here is the latest "Plan B" video.
    It is only a short one, probably because there is not really much happening on the surface of the Crypto space at the moment.

     
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  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    His time frame around the next high is pretty similar to Loukas's and my pre-school level attempt ie around 12 months after the halvening. I think you may have mentioned that previously.
     
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  10. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't think it matters to BTC how many zillions of shitcoins there are in the market place.
    That is for Regulators to eventually sought it out as retailers get smashed.
    BTC is based purely on its own level of supply and demand within each adoption cycle.

    I still don't believe we have seen the real silly season for Alt Coins yet with retail entering.
    The only real interest in BTC has been the issuance of Spot ETF's.
    Sure ETF's over the long term will alter the course and direction for BTC.
    However, imo there has been too much hysteria placed on ETF's.

    Think about it.
    You are a local fund manager that has launched a $50 Mln Fund specifically for BTC.
    What is your allocation? It will be around 2%. In otherwords you have to buy $1 mln worth of BTC.
    In reality, for a fund, that is not many BTC's. Roughly 15 BTCs.
    Sure, there are alot more institutions getting on board and will be many more over time that will continue injecting funds
    into BTC.

    As for manipulation of the price.
    I don't believe that can happen with BTC.
    For every Shark that is trying to move the price up or down, there will be 100's of other Sharks ready to pounce.
    That is why the Futures and Options market is so entertaining to see Leveraged Longs and Shorts get wrecked.
     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeh, the thread from X which @66rounds reposted doesn't seem to stack up in my opinion (not that I read it, it hurt my brain more than Quordle does). I think 70% of funds are in BTC/ETH (1.6T?), with another USD235 billion in the top 125 tokens. So we're looking at maybe a few hundred billion in the rest of the shitcoin market. Loose change really.
     
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  12. pmbug

    pmbug Active Member

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    Looks like Germany is offloading/selling BTC that they have confiscated from crooks right now while Mt. Gox BTC is also getting distributed (and likely sold) to bag holders.

    According to Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg ETF analyst), ETH ETF should go live in about a week (July 8). That will likely spark some volatility in the crypto markets.
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Testing that 200 DMA again, this time with a more serious intent, looks like it also coincides with a support level:

    BTCUSD_2024-07-05_08-19-45.png
     
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  14. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just on a Weekly timeframe using Heikin Ashi for the bigger picture as it cuts out alot of the noise, BTC could possibly breakdown to the 50% level around 44k. However, I don't see it breaking down much below that if it were to breakdown. There is alot of support just below that level which would act more like a springboard or coil to the upside. It would create a massive run-up. Currently, we have only had 4 Red Candles with the first candle being more about indecision within the market before it finally gave way to the downside. I am leaning more on the side that we are still in a trading range over the next few weeks which your daily chart clearly shows between the 58k - 63k level. Sure, it could possibly last for a couple more months before a significant breakout. Importantantly for me, I don't want to do anything irrational if there were to be a major dump. Would prefer to ride it out, if that were the case.

    upload_2024-7-5_13-25-6.png
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The green line on my chart around the $44K marks the uppermost level of a buy zone bounded by the lower green line at the $30K level.
     
  16. markcoinoz

    markcoinoz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Shiney,

    I could accept it dropping to as low as your upperbound of 44k which ties in with mine of a 50% retracement also around the 44k.
    However, for it to collapse to your lowerbound of 29.6k, it would completely wipe out all of this years gains and take us back to the middle of October last year.
    I would be surprised if that happened. However, we can't discount it in the crazy world we live in. In the mean time I will just have to sit tight.
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ same mate, it's just a range that I identified using a method I adopt. Doesn't mean it hits that target zone
     
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