Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Found it

https://x.com/milesdeutscher/status/1803071315257254211?s=08

 

This is the problem with cryptocurrency. It has become an absolutely bonkers casino and with ETFs diverting inflows, you have a two pronged attack on Bitcoin. The way silver and gold are manipulated, bitcoin will be too.

 

No just means you’re out of touch with reality.
Are you still in STX?

 

Number get bigger
Big number bad
Small number means more moneys for bitcoin
Bitcoin good
Altcoin bad

 

Here is the latest "Plan B" video.
It is only a short one, probably because there is not really much happening on the surface of the Crypto space at the moment.

 

I don't think it matters to BTC how many zillions of shitcoins there are in the market place.
That is for Regulators to eventually sought it out as retailers get smashed.
BTC is based purely on its own level of supply and demand within each adoption cycle.

I still don't believe we have seen the real silly season for Alt Coins yet with retail entering.
The only real interest in BTC has been the issuance of Spot ETF's.
Sure ETF's over the long term will alter the course and direction for BTC.
However, imo there has been too much hysteria placed on ETF's.

Think about it.
You are a local fund manager that has launched a $50 Mln Fund specifically for BTC.
What is your allocation? It will be around 2%. In otherwords you have to buy $1 mln worth of BTC.
In reality, for a fund, that is not many BTC's. Roughly 15 BTCs.
Sure, there are alot more institutions getting on board and will be many more over time that will continue injecting funds
into BTC.

As for manipulation of the price.
I don't believe that can happen with BTC.
For every Shark that is trying to move the price up or down, there will be 100's of other Sharks ready to pounce.
That is why the Futures and Options market is so entertaining to see Leveraged Longs and Shorts get wrecked.

 

Looks like Germany is offloading/selling BTC that they have confiscated from crooks right now while Mt. Gox BTC is also getting distributed (and likely sold) to bag holders.

According to Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg ETF analyst), ETH ETF should go live in about a week (July 8). That will likely spark some volatility in the crypto markets.

 

Just on a Weekly timeframe using Heikin Ashi for the bigger picture as it cuts out alot of the noise, BTC could possibly breakdown to the 50% level around 44k. However, I don't see it breaking down much below that if it were to breakdown. There is alot of support just below that level which would act more like a springboard or coil to the upside. It would create a massive run-up. Currently, we have only had 4 Red Candles with the first candle being more about indecision within the market before it finally gave way to the downside. I am leaning more on the side that we are still in a trading range over the next few weeks which your daily chart clearly shows between the 58k - 63k level. Sure, it could possibly last for a couple more months before a significant breakout. Importantantly for me, I don't want to do anything irrational if there were to be a major dump. Would prefer to ride it out, if that were the case.

 

Hi Shiney,

I could accept it dropping to as low as your upperbound of 44k which ties in with mine of a 50% retracement also around the 44k.
However, for it to collapse to your lowerbound of 29.6k, it would completely wipe out all of this years gains and take us back to the middle of October last year.
I would be surprised if that happened. However, we can't discount it in the crazy world we live in. In the mean time I will just have to sit tight.

 

Hope everyone is holding on tight.
This is probably the most critical stage to not get shaken out.
It's been just over 90 days since the halving and I have a sense that we are about to enter a stage
that will rattle many holders. So far we have seen an assassination attempt on Trump, Biden stepping down,
the MS outage showing just how vulnerable the World is. To me these are signs leading upto something much bigger
in the pipeline.

From a Weekly charting perspective, we are in a good position above the 50% level in a trading range from the March Top and Early July Low.
Initially, I thought we would start seeing Fireworks after this 3 Month period from the halving. So far that hasn't happened. I know alot of people are expecting
a big move once the Spot Etherium ETF has been approved. Not convinced that it has that much of a bearing to the price of BTC, or the overall Crypto Market Cap.
Maybe I am wrong. Anyway, today we shall see the impact of a Spot Eth.

 

When Larry Fink comes out and says everything will be tokenized. I ask myself "How is that possible?".
Is it going to be a good or bad thing for the average citizen?
Where does that leave the US Dollar? Is it going to be tozenized, or it already is?
Why is Thiel, Fink and Dimon so committed to the BTC ETF's?

I think Stablecoins is the canary in the coalmine. It is the "Something Bigger" in my opinion.
We are still waiting for Stablecoin legislation which would play a pivital role within the banking system.
Lets face it. Governments want to control you as much as possible with every aspect of your lives if given the chance.
Stablecoins are win win for gov'ts and big corporations and central banks, as it can be centrally controlled and programmed. They no longer need
the Petro-Dollar, can still operate the US Dollar which more than likely will be Tether. Its a Digital System that will easily collect taxes and track
your everyday where abouts. What happens with "DeFi" in the coming months and years will be interesting.

That is my longterm view.

The instability that we are currently witnessing is very much orchestrated.
Immigration for a starter is a major factor which is why we are witnessing voilent hotspots springing up around the globe.
If locals are being targeted and pushed out of their lifestyle and homeland, they have 2 options. Leave or fight. We are witnessing it in France
at the moment. Would not be surprised if something happens during the Olympics.

One final thing. My view is, had Trump been assassinated, the US would have gone into a full blown civil war. It would have been chaotic and ugly.
Was Crooks the only shooter? From what I have seen and read shows otherwise. That is up for debate.

If BTC is co-mingled with government, then BTC will end up being a failure because it failed to protect us from government overreach, control and privacy which was a primary purpose.