Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    22.2%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    37.8%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    24.4%
  4. It's not a bubble

    15.6%
  1. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like its bouncing down off the 20 day.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm pretty sure I remember reading some advanced warning from them a while ago, maybe not, I don't use them so I just forgot about it:

    Prompted me to withdraw some stuff that had just come out of being locked up earning interest on Nexo.
     
  3. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Weren't there some key levels there at 19-20 k? Then it started playing sideways with a few humps, which from the distance might looks like a double-bottom or triple bottom. Illusion. It will keep falling. And I think it's around 10 k where the tide MIGHT turn. Can't see why it would hesitate anywhere in between...
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Weren't you asking whether the correction was over?
     
  6. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There's a chance looking at the Elliott Wave pattern that we could see 4 figure (or even 3!) Bitcoin at the end of the move just starting. After bottoming I would expect a move back to at least $140,000.

    Seeing as though my time machine is out of action whilst I wait for the semiconductor supply chain issues to resolve, I'm unable to travel back in time to buy for fractions of a cent, so I'll have to use this 'almost' buy of the century opportunity.

    The danger will be at this 'blood in the streets' moment avoiding getting caught out by crypto companies locking down withdrawals or going bust.
     
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  7. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  8. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    But Jerome Powell investigates himself.
     
  9. neonuke

    neonuke Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    BTC might still be on struggle street for a while, failed to close above the 200 week, and already opened down, grinding sideways for a bit longer still and maybe a lower low is still on the cards
    upload_2022-7-25_21-31-42.png
     
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  10. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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  12. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  13. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    About 2/3 of these bear market rallies go up 10 percent so we will see. Could be a little gain there of you have the steel balls for it.
    Or Jerome could sneeze and it could be gone like that.
     
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  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps Solana and Cardano could be the next Ethereums in the next bull market. Plus, they are stake-able.

    Could it be a good strategy to buy these two low, stake, stake, stake. Thus, compound interest, then move into ETH/BTC/stable coins later on?

    Just curious if anyone ever thought about this.
     
  15. neonuke

    neonuke Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have thought about this, but was actually thinking in a crypto bear market, BTC might hold up better than alts.

    Should the strategy be hold BTC or cash in the bear market, swap to alts over time as the bull market picks up, then take profits in the parabolic rally at the end of the bull run?
     
  16. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    i would be buying all the l1 chains like solana, dot and avax, along with rolloups like optimism, matic and bnb.
     
  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The idea is to focus on several alt coins (which are are more volatile than BTC), which have more "promising" infrastructure and have already proven SOME uptrend potential.
    Solana and Cardano would be some of them. Bit Torrent, Stellar and perhaps another few could be added as secondary options.

    If the market picks up (might take 1-5...10 years to reach a "decent high"), then swap the alt coins for ETH, BTC or a stable coin.
     
  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    What is you take on Polygon/Matic? I just bumped into it some time ago, while exploring Solana's downtime flaws (DDOS attacks), security issues.

    The price chart looks scary. Still not like Solana's collapse, but very volatile.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Latest from out of Glassnode for BTC, analysing on-chain metrics to determine whether we could be in a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run:
    • With exception of a few activity spikes higher during major capitulation events, the current network activity suggests that there remains little influx of new demand as yet. (bearish)
    • After the initial wash-out in and demand destruction May 2021 , transactional demand has traded sideways to slightly lower, indicative that only the stable base of higher conviction traders and investors remain. (bearish)
    • As a result of lacklustre transaction demand, on-chain transaction fees are firmly within bear market territory , seeing only 13.4 BTC in total fees paid per day. (bearish)
    • the Bitcoin network remains HODLer dominated, and as yet, there has not been any noteworthy return of new demand, as viewed through the lens of on-chain activity. (bearish)
    • the capacity in Bitcoin Lightning Network (LN) public channels continues to print new all-time-highs. (bullish)
    And ETH:
    • (based on gas prices) This signals that despite recent positive price action, there has not been an influx of new usage, and overall, the Ethereum is at a multi-year low in relative activity. (bearish)
    • the ETH burn rate via EIP1559 is now at an all time low. (bearish)
    They also analyse spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and find:
    https://insights.glassnode.com/the-...22&utm_medium=woc_newsletter&utm_source=email
     
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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    Yep and the overall volumes seem to be rather low. The overall market sentiment (as per news, as per top crypto YouTubers...) is BEARISH.

    It might take a few years until it crawls back up again.

    If you can pick the best (promising alts) if/when BTC reaches 11 k, then they can generate a a lot more than if you bought BTC even in the first phase of the next bull market.
    Until Bitcoin went down 2-3x its peak, some alts went down 5-10x lower their own peaks during the same period (silver analogy: grab the volatiles as low as possible and ride the waves up).

    It is risky though, because some alts are stepping on each other's neck: Cardano wants to take on Ethereum, but Solana stepped on top of Cardano and scored much higher peaks, RavenCoin creators even affirm that they too want to take on Ethereum... and the chain goes on. I think some alts will simply cannibalize each other. Some of them will simply go down the bucket (technical-, security flaws and lacks etc.).
     

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