MKS PAMP 2020 forecast

Discussion in 'Silver' started by minimilled, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. minimilled

    minimilled Member

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    https://www.mks.ch/sites/default/files/reports/mks_pamp_group_-_precious_metals_forecast_2020_0.pdf

    “This year we are mildly bullish and expect Silver to attract some speculative interest and to gain some ground building a solid base around the 18.00 USD/Ounce level. Silver could regain a bit of shine and move again in the shadow of Gold. While fundamentals seem to be slightly brighter, they are still not shining. Silver will attempt to further recover, yet shall remain very volatile and prone to corrections on the back of speculative profit taking as it moves higher. We expect a few erratic Silver trading sessions during the course of 2020.
    We see Silver averaging 18.62 USD/Ounce and to peak at 21.00 USD/Ounce in 2020”
     
  2. minimilled

    minimilled Member

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    If I read that right, even with really good news (for silver), the problem will be the overhang in investment bought over a period of years (you can see this in the silverinstitute figures, I think from 2012-2017 or so from memory, though it has now tailed off)

    That sector will be looking to offload given the grinding sideways action for years and the risk may be of a modest price spike becoming a crowded trade. The problem may then be that good news actually squashes the price.

    I am thinking there are likely a lot of people looking to sell off at USD 21.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2020
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  3. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    I think,silver is no buy at the moment- except silver pandas...
     
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  4. minimilled

    minimilled Member

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    I don’t know much about silver pandas. I would like to get some. The reason is, if Chinese like them, they will become valuable. The main risks are counterfeit and the fickleness of popularity. But....when Chinese like something, the price can go high. Is this the reason you think pandas are a good buy?

    I think the silver price looks about average at the moment. The GSR is high, but the long term price is average.

    If there is a media campaign about a “recession” in 2020 (which is a USA election year) then the silver price should fall as most demand is industrial. If this election is like the previous ones, then the stock market becomes volatile (to try and discredit Trump) and then rises after the election result.

    So it may be after the election that the price of silver rises. However, if you are buying it, the best time to buy is when the price is depressed, which might happen if too many retail investors sell on a spike.

    If you wait until the price crash which may occur after demand is overwhelmed, you may benefit because the price may then recover from the temporary crushing.
     
  5. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    The panda is very cute /like koala/animal. Panda coins looks very cool and a lot people outside China/specially in USA /buying them. Some panda coins more expensive than others because of variety- large date,small date,even microdate. For some reason the premium on silver pandas over spot price going up.-I think it's hard to lose now when you invest in silver pandas and keep them at least 5 to 10 years...
     

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