Discussion in 'Silver' started by Turk, Mar 31, 2011.
cause I stacked @$18….
The $18 is my attempt at using a technical indicator to predict a market correction. It's not a certainty, at the same time it's possible. Recall one of the Elliot Wave outcomes @Davros10 posted some time back - $10 silver.
If there wasn't a debt ceiling "crisis" around the corner then I'd be very confident that the POS could reach $18. The fact is that the debt ceiling crisis is a low probability/high severity outcome. The type of outcome that gold and silver bulls have wet dreams over - you know, the getting it in your sleep but dipping out in real life scenario that 14 year old boys seem to suffer from. What's the old story about sex at high school? The ones talking about it (kids) aren't getting it while the ones that do get it (teachers) don't talk about it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another short term rise in the price of silver just because of the debt ceiling crisis. I don't think any of that nonsense applies to gold - there's bigger issues at play there.
I was saying the other day somewhere around here that the mild-case scenario for stackers would be for the POS to bounce along in a consolidation pattern above 23.50 (purple line) because at least over the medium term it would've broken out of it's downward channel, sure there's no capital appreciation but it still would be attempting to buck the long term trend. The worse-case is for it to bounce up and down below that descending upper channel line (orange). If $18 was the price at which it corrected then there's still some way to go. If it's $100 then .......
We need another guess the silver price comp because last time that seemed to drive the price higher.
And while I'm polishing my crystal balls, gold is flirting with a S/R zone of mine and also trending toward the lower edge of a rising channel. I'd probably ignore that solid black line at USD1680, it was an attempt to map out a market correction which I think is wrong.
Time to stop polishing those balls...
If you have another comp, I’ll donate my winning Maple to the winner. Perhaps for end June?
Well, what a difference a few hours make!
It seems the silver sky is not going to come crashing down on us after all, and $13 & $18 oz prices will only occur in the active imaginations of those looney tunes
who failed to prepare while the sun was shining.
The channel seems to be support now. Or should i say for now.
For now. Keep an eye on the weekly.
Time to lift your game, members are getting tired of the nature of your posts. This is the first and last warning.
Debt ceiling drama is growing so that might be some blood in the streets here soon.
Im very disappointed by the lack of carnage so far. Its all going way too slooooowwww.
This is coming from one of the silver-manipulating banks, so take it with a few large grains of salt...
Citigroup Projects $30 Silver In The Next 6-12 Months
Citigroup projects silver could rise to $30 an ounce in the next six months to a year.
With silver currently in the $23.50 range, this represents a possible 27.66% return.
We think recent price weakness offers a strong dip-buying opportunity, reiterating our call for $30/oz silver over the next 6-12 months as US growth rolls over, even if emerging markets growth stagnates.”Silver is currently in a dip. The white metal is down almost 7% this month after cumulative gains of 20% over the past two months. Silver was above $26 at one point. But the dip appears to be temporary.
Citigroup analysts aren’t buying the Federal Reserve’s hawkish posturing. They think interest rates will fall in the near future as a recession takes hold.
We expect silver would rally in anticipation of the fall in US interest rates and real yields that will likely accompany an anticipated rollover in US growth in Q4’22 or early 2024. This should weigh on the dollar, with Citi economists expecting US rates and the dollar to weaken further.”
Citigroup analysts said these dynamics should underpin demand for ETF silver.
Weaker competition for investment capital from other asset classes should also support silver pricing as markets increasingly price US recession risks.”They also expect a potential increase in demand for silver in China.
Our economists expect China to continue to gradually recover and any associated rebound in EM [emerging market] growth sentiment could be an incremental tailwind for silver. … We expect China demand could recover in 2H 23 following further easing measures by the PBoC.”
There are other bullish signs for silver the Citigroup analysis didn’t mention.
The silver-gold ratio still indicates silver is on sale.
The current silver-gold ratio is just over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.
Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.
Spots just entered the $34 range...
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