AVAST THERE BLACK SHEEP!!! I know ye be a sheep of darkness outwardly, but ye have a heart as white as snow within, and so I'll remind ye that there's never to be any mention of the likes of 'him' on board this 'ere ship of righteousness! Such uncleanness! Such degradation! Why, a pirate should rinse his mouth out with rum at the very mention of that name of darkness. I've a good mind to.... wait... Oh, sorry... My bad! I thought you were talking about Jamie DIMON... my mistake. As you were dear woolly one! CREW, Another fine night of sailing. Yesterday's news that a new major buyer has stepped into the silver market might be true! Silver is now up 33% for the year, and easily leads all 'commodities' in the charts. (Pssst! That's because it ain't a commodity - it's a monetary metal) New buyers who were waiting for a pullback before buying are also now entering the market. (And apparently there are empty trading stalls at the CME as people take their trading elsewhere after the MF Global heist!) There was an interesting exchange on the forum recently that went something like this. A new member asked "What will you do with your PMs when the dollar finally crashes?" and a kind member responded : "The easiest solution is to simply make a new US dollar and make the old one worth 5 times less (or something like that)." I smiled when I read that, because it sounded so easy, but it also got me reflecting about the social and cultural impact that the coming crash will have on most folk. When the 'main event' strikes, gold and silver will naturally pull back for a season as people desperately seek liquidity (we've seen this happen repeatedly in recent months). Eventually the metal prices will take off once again the upside - they may even explode before the crash - as we saw last night with a 4.4% rise. The eventual price of gold will be astronomical, and the price of silver will go wild. As I have said before, the silver chart will go vertical overnight. You will be electrified by what you see. But the coming collapse will not be "just another 2008". It will be a genuinely terrifying and frightening chain of events - be warned - JUST when you think things might get better they will suddenly get MUCH worse. This will shock many people terribly as they see and hear things they cannot even imagine today. There is NO way out, and NO possibility of avoiding the coming 'Global Financial Terrorist Act'. The global system is currently like a tall building wired with explosives for demolition. You can see the thousands of explosive charges carefully positioned in the derivatives market, and the electric wires all lead to the European bond market. THE IDES OF MARCH? The timing of this storm is not clear yet, but right now there is a significant 'window of risk' appearing as we head into March. As Sinatra sings "Something's Gotta Give!" After last night's silver rise this might be a good time to think about your overall preparation. Could you survive, say, a month with the shops and banks closed? Do you have some ready cash in case the EFT networks close down for a period, or will give you just $100 per person per day? Are you out of equities? Is your super allocated to 'cash'? The people who will finally press the plunger are playing for keeps here. Here are a few recent headlines, where writers have struggled to find adequate words to prepare folk for what they see ahead: Here's John Williams from ShadowStats: Here's the Dallas Federal Reserve President and CEO Richard W. Fisher: And Murray Rothbard: "Hyperinflation, on any count, is far worse than any depression: It destroys the currency the lifeblood of the economy; it ruins and shatters the middle class and all fixed income groups; it wreaks havoc unbounded. And furthermore it leads finally to unemployment and lower living standards since there is little point in working when earned income depreciates by the hour." -- "Great American Depression," I have NEVER heard anyone 'exaggerate' the coming crisis. Those who understand it merely struggle to convey the horror clearly and accurately. There's no need for exaggeration. I know many good folk don't consider these scenarios likely. They say "Oh, things won't ever be that bad", or "The government will stop things from getting too bad" or "These days we are more interlinked than we were in the past - things are very different now" or "Today we have a lot of useful organizations like the IMF or World Bank (etc.) who can quickly step in to fix things" (lol!!) or even "I just can't see that happening it's just not possible!" How I wish these ideas contained even a grain of truth or wisdom! John Embry said recently: The coming event will not be a once-in-a-decade or even a once-in-a-lifetime event it will be a unique event in all of world history. Everyone alive will experience loss of some kind and the world as we 'see' today will be totally changed. Doug Casey puts it bluntly: Getting back to that comment about creating 'new' dollars worth some multiple of the old dollars... Well, that's sort of like being on the Titanic and choosing a lifeboat that sinks five times slower than the main vessel the bottom line is you're still going to get very wet! (As soon as you 'fix' an 'exchange rate' between 'different' dollars you are basically reproducing the same dollars - only in a different colour. France and Germany both tried something along these lines - and both were surprised when nobody trusted the new notes!) The coming collapse will have permanent social consequences; people will NEVER again fully trust the money supply. When this fundamental confidence is lost it is very hard to restore. We need to think and talk very carefully and clearly about what is coming - even while we celebrate the rising PM prices. We don't know everything, but we do know an awful lot - and things are becoming clearer each day as events unfold. Silver and Gold are good life preservers precisely because they are NOT tied to any fiat dollar! Last night should remind everyone of that! SPOUT, I mean SPOT : USD $37.00
People can get used to anything. I think I was the one that talked about the hypothetical "new US dollar" being worth 5 times more than the old dollar and this is based off of the French example of the later 50s/early 60s. What the "New Franc" did was retard the devaluation of the franc for another 30 years until the Euro came into operation. While people want to look at the big picture, I'm only really concerned with what's going to happen while I'm still alive. if the monetary system limps along on life support for another few decades of monetary alchemy, the the fundamentals are not going to come and save me before I die. Also, everyone is predicting hyperinflation but I am not convinced. I look at it this way: * Deflation is like water draining from a bathtub, making a big sucking sound. The plug was pulled out in 2007-2008. Central banks have been topping the bathtub with water ever since to ensure the water level doesn't drop. * We don't know how much money is floating in the Credit Default Swap and derivatives market, but we all know it is eye watering. Anything from 800 trillion into the quadrillion. We also know that all it's going to take is the fall of the right domino to start the chain reaction that no one can predict or has adequately planned for. * When that fatal domino falls, the size of the plug hole in the bathtub is going to expand exponentially and the water is going to gush out in a mega wave of deflation. * Again, Central Banks will need to be turning a fire hose onto that bathtub just to keep the water level. What I fear is that the situation that has been set up is too great for the men in suits to control and it is going to get out of their control very quickly. If derivatives are in the trillions and trillions and the size of previous monetary injections has been around the 500 billion mark, you can see how inadequate the initial response will likely be. But once that deflation tsunami starts, it may be that the Central Banks are simply washed away in the collapse when they realise just how much money they need to be printing to stall the collapse of all the derivatives. But by then the deleveraging may be unstoppable, even as they try to pump trillions and trillions into the system. We may all be sucked down the sinkhole before they can even get off a QE4 or QE5. Then we'll probably have a return to political extremism and war. If this is the case, then the price of EVERYTHING is going to drop - and drop at rates that will not only make our eyes water, but our noses bleed. My one hope is that the PMs drop at a slower rate in this massive deflation which would actually mean a boost to its purchasing power.
So the Question is do you believe it will be hyper-inflation or deflation. Either will be a catastrophe for most people. It must be remembered that during the great depression, when deflation was the order of the day, there was plenty of goods at cheap prices but not many had any cash to buy them. This time the debt burden is the difference along with many other modern day business practices. Regards Errol 43
'Nothing doth more hurt in a state than that cunning men pass for wise.' Francis Bacon Thanks for your good response Earthjade. Yes, France has had an 'instructive' monetary history! I'd like to understand more about the idea that a new currency could retard the devaluation of a fading currency. Perhaps there are other factors at work here. I'm going to have to look into it with my remaining eye! I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and reasoning so clearly. That's helpful for such an important topic. If there's a single word to describe the coming crisis it would probably have to be 'confusion'. I believe people will be overwhelmed by the many conflicting financial factors that will arise as things unfold. A key part of the problem with 'Inflation' or 'Deflation' rests on the question of "What are you actually valuing things against?" We really need to define 'which' prices are changing in relative and absolute terms over different time periods. As an example of this, during the Weimar collapse, Credit ran out the back door screaming with Cash hot on its heels! I'd label that event a Hyperinflationary collapse even though German exports had never been cheaper. The topic is not something we should 'argue' about for once the terms are established agreement usually follows. (As Errol43 said, we ALL agree that either way it's going to be very bad!) By far, the very best article I've ever seen on this topic was written by FOFOA about a year ago: http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html There he writes: It's a longish read, but contains a lot of pertinent historical information, many excellent quotes, and many useful and thought-provoking insights. FOFOA also supplies clear reasoning for his beliefs, so we can weigh these up for ourselves. Some other gems... Rather chillingly he also writes: As I said earlier, the collapse might actually commence as early as next month, so preparation is becoming crucial. Better be a year early, than a day late. (End of the month - here's the latest silver chart just for future reference) SPOT : USD $37.00 all day!
Geez Capn Turk I hope you are a bit off on your predictions of 1 month before the start of the collapse. We keep a lot of food in the cupboard and as much as I've tried to accumulate in the last months my wife thinks I'm going mad. Started our SMSF, a good proportion of mine in PM's. I still can't convince her to transfer hers. I pleaded with her tonight to at least put it in cash. She will think about it. The only thing she will think about is blaming me when her super is worthless, "why didn't you make me do it, why didn't you tell me?" Well after its all turned to custard I might have to tell her to go and buy the groceries with the equivalent of her super... How the F**K do you convince people who think that everything is ok that it may not be? We are potentially headed to some very hard and scary times the like we have never seen Not sure what else to say :/
Captain Turk.. thanks for posting such a long report..Got a good interesting response too...Now I put my pirits hat on and I'll go the bridge. Latist nuse..maggie has komunikations diffikulties up der in de statesroom...seams lik de pelicans hav bean rosten on hur attinna an maken a hell of a mess. We git sumwon to klleen it up fur yer Maggie..Sorri dat yo missed sum grat musik wile de SS saled n past dem 34 memades. BS and a few of de cru, dey be putten on a grat sho to selebrat the 37 berg bean passed. tonite we tri to huld..BS has nerly run outta de fual for de outbored..I don't think we hav a parte ton ite, maybe a song ore 2. AK ER 43 frun de bridge of de SS
Sorry capn errol I fink me hat felld off an I startd torkin gibberish. Not shore if da black ewe will be ere tanite. I thinks he copped a bit to mush drench lase nite, went strate to is head it did. I fink dey calls it drench feva... Mind yu he found sum smashn songs he did an kept us on da straight and narrow, headed norf. I plantid sum icy piks on burg 37 an he kep watch onem orl nite he did. He be a good ships sheep
Sorry Maggie, I tol GP he ad ta go to da toylet bafor he went an sat onya crowsy nest. E' woodnt listen, sayed he had self control an all. Weel now ya nows hoo ta be blamin for ya comunkashuns problums.
Aeeehggh, I waz gonna say sory ta yaz all for anuver Elvis song, But I feels not the leest bit of sorrow. Yaz orl needs ta lurn yaselvs wat musik reely iz I has neva seen dis wun. Enjoy or wolk da plank... [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBVT3lcKd5o[/youtube]
Burp! errrrr I iz hear but I mite hed ter me bunk erly ternite az I haz no rum left ter go wif me limenanakokanut - sumwun musta drunk it orl I been stockin up da larder along wid missus Blacksheep, but wen yer have a few lambs in da house dey find it an eat it orl! Will be doin anudder big shop tommerer an I tink I'll grab sum more fewell for da outbored while I'm at it az that ting iz worth its wayt in shiney! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czybZ-J_X9g[/youtube]
Aye, I gotta cuple a yung tata heds what won't stop eatn and usn da dunny roll. I think they eatn that tooo. Mite hav ta go for anuva shop dis week ifn da missus will take me. Gotta crook ankle waitin for a new peg leg
Sorry blacky sheepy but I got me a few lambs inda padduck what mite help us thru ifn times get to tufff That be what they ther for. I dun askd evry wun of em, nun are related to ya or I wooda sent em back ome to ya. 37.225 Edit as I forgot silver price
Tanks DBP, a lot of dem other sheep an lambs seam ter be born reddy ter go to tha slorter, tis sad but I have lernt ye cannot convince dem there is anudder way.... :/ I noe whatcha meen about them dunny rolls - they shorely must eat em, no uther eggsplanashun fer it! Am down to only two cartons of baked beenz and I tink der only be half a duzzen jars of coffee left so definitely timer ter hit da shops, not ter menshun the severe shortage o' Rum! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqjpxEYWZk0[/youtube] USD 37.38
Da Bernankle is about to speak, might not get ter sleep just yet methinks, dis could be interesting again USD 37.44 I lived down your way fer a while DBP, have some great memories from down there! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yXinPYK-Jk[/youtube]
Dat food and Water fella, he pushed me inta de heds larst nite..Got me hed stuk in a buket..Der be steem cumin of de froze yella ice. Dis be pirit radio stashu broadkasting om O410e..The stashun wher DBR and de Black ram pla all trew de nite. #37.30 annuder splutter frum de OB, put annuder litre in de tank BS. A request hs come in for BS to play, I cant stop luvin EWE. AK ER 43
Dat bucket iz a gud idea Cap'm Erril, yer can fill it up wid rumanalimeanakokanut an ewe still got both hands ter drive da mighty SS wid! ahhh a Ray Charles classic, carnt stop luvin ewe, dis wun goes out ter orl da lovers of da shiny! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQXsM1l2wZ8[/youtube]
