March 2020 - is this the best time to stack silver? Or gold? your thoughts?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by mmurasoli, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. mmurasoli

    mmurasoli New Member

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    G'day

    Given the global situation, wondering if it is the best time to buy Silver/Gold? What are you thoughts?

    I recently bought a 100oz from a silver stacker member and I am thinking of buying more gradually.

    I am new here, if i posted in the wrong place please direct me to the right forum, thanks in advance.
     
  2. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's hard to say. Gold is trading at all time highs in aud but the Corona virus is just getting started. Gold isn't trading at all time highs in USD though.
     
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  3. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    Historically silver is typically down In march, so likely be a good time to buy, I usually start buying in March into April. then typically rises again, then next good buying time Historically is Late November mid December then takes off again late December upto march.
    Silver is pretty predictable like that, just look at previous years and its fairly consistent on what months dip and what months rise.
     
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  4. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    In truth, nobody will know except in hindsight.

    For gold, you are buying what the banks buy. Look at the graph of gold in the last 20 years. It is a winner. It is still going up but did stagnate for a period of years. You have to take that into account when buying and whether you are someone who can just buy it, put it aside and watch the paint dry.

    For silver, a more volatile metal play, you are buying a demonetised metal trading mostly as an industrial commodity, currently weighted in the solar and electrical manufacturing, which also has a dying boomer investment cohort who remembered it as money back in the 50s and early 60s, shilled it a decade ago, as well as a bunch of GenXers who swallowed the line. While it has held a status as a “precious metal” it is barely that in reality.

    But, it also has potential to trade again as a precious metal due to its history as a monetary metal, a history of wild fluctuation in price, as well as mostly being a byproduct, with some major primary silver mines coming to the end of their lives at this price anyway. There is no clear sense to me how enthusiasm might arise again other than through a widespread adoption in China, India, maybe Africa. I don’t see demand of the kind we want generated in Anglo-European countries or western allies in Asia, though that may depend on the product and what happens in the digital token world.

    If governments clamp down on gold either directly or indirectly through taxation, silver should benefit.

    An interesting thing - when you look at nominal inflation in price of a US silver dollar in the early 20th century and melt value now, I’ve seen calculations where the real value is similar back then and now (a dollar then = melt value of about $14 USD now)

    You have a 100oz bar which is nice to own. Early on I bought mostly bars and Perth Mint. It’s a good foundation.
     
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  5. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    From an AUD perspective, what has happened in the last few years is a steady deterioration in the AUD vs the USD and in the last year a steady rise in the POG vs both currencies. This has so far performed well for gold holders in Australia. There is no sign of trend abatement.

    Indeed the trend is set to intensify as the demand for Australian exports in Asia falls with the virus spook. That weighs down on the AUD.

    Silver is a different story. I’m thinking the price may be volatile from here for a bit, followed by a lift from the POG as things get more spooky.
     
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  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ll hold back on silver as it is no longer cheap. Unlike others, I don’t measure silver in terms of GSR, I don’t care how much the price of gold is but rather the price over the cost of production for silver is what matters to me. Production cost is around $10-$17 per ounce for most miners.

    On the other hand, I’m still bullish on gold and think that due to safe haven bid, the price will reach $1800 sometime this year. However, a pullback to $1500 is still possible, so buy with caution.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
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  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    if there is 2-3 weeks drop in prices, that would be best time to buy, provided they are available metals to get
     
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  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    BS has random 10 oz bars at spot price promotion, moving slowly. Not a bad price if don’t mind the condition.
     
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  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its still more expensive than my coins, may be have to skip and pick up some premium bars
     
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  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The cat is out of the bag now and the real shape of the "strongest economy in history" is becoming apparent to more people as more wake up to the truth.

    Chances are we wont see much lower prices with inflation kicking in now.
    Someone has some splaining to do!!!
     
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  11. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Anytime is the best time to buy gold.
     
  12. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    BUY BUY BUY!!!!

    PS - We had threads like this in the past.. and those are kicking themselves cause they didn't jump-in earlier in 'gold-train' express
     
  13. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I increased my gold holdings substantially in Dec-Jan. It remains to be seen whether gold is better than SGD over the next few months.
     
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  14. pennys

    pennys Member

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    I think Ag and Pt are about to go on sale. Au may be a bit later depending on 2008 memory.
     
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  15. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the FED have some splaining to do, because they are Independent of the Government, & are not a FEDERAL AGENCY, but a ROGUE bunch of BANKSTERS who were appointed late in 1913 whilst the CONgress was getting ready for the holiday season. ENJOY

     
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  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just look at pt and pd, the price differential is coming close to $2k!

    This is unthinkable only 2 months ago. It looks like pd is heading to $3000-$5000 while pt is heading to $650-$800.
     
  17. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Agreed. If you think about 2008 there was a drop from about $22.50 to $13. That would see us dropping to about $16. That’s $16AUD. So going by historical trends and economics there is some possibility we might head down there. I would be buying from $20.

    Long term (I.e. more than 10 years) it should be a gradual purchase plan across that timeframe.

    If you are buying today and selling next year you need professional advice in my opinion.
     
  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Strongest economy ever in world history and fastest biggest point drop in market history hahaha.
    KAGA!
     
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  19. mmurasoli

    mmurasoli New Member

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    thanks everyone for your thoughts and responses. I just noticed there was a big drop to Gold and silver. Will the prices go down even further?
     
  20. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Better to acquire your stacking ounce goal months to years early then one day too late.
     
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