M2 Telecommunications Group (MTU)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Apr 16, 2012.

  1. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

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    I agree - short term stop loss for me is $3.09, long term is $2.99.

    I'll bail my trading stock at the short term and my longer term holds at the long term. Will still hold my core holding though - this is a great stock/company with good management. Pays me a nice dividend twice a year.

    I'm lucky though - this is a profit stop not a loss limit.

    Will keep it on the radar even if I exit though - always looking to buy back in to quality stocks at distressed prices.

    malachii
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Geez malachii, you've been quiet for a holder of these. Anything else high quality you like currently, or if cheaper?
     
  3. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

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    Held a core of these since they merged with People Tel several years ago. Liked what I saw and heard and just kept building. Back when I was buying them for the long term they were around the 50 cents and paying a 10% div.

    They entered my trading portfolio about 12 months ago and I have been in and out of them (still holding my core portfolio) several times over that time. Latest purchase was late April - most of which I've traded out of.

    There are several other companies that I really like but as I posted a while ago - everything seems to be pointing down so I'm in a bit of a holding pattern as far as buying goes and jumping early as far as selling goes. Never like this time of year as a trader (no real news as everyone is waiting for reporting season both here and nth hemisphere - but plenty of rumours) but this year seems more dynamic than normal!

    malachii
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Kicking on well. Today news came out that MTU has been included in the ASX200, which is supposed to automatically attract some index and manage funds investment. The chart weakness has been overcome with good volume for MTU which is not very liquid.
    http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=DXS&E=ASX&N=680901

    Now I have to decide whether to lighten up, and sell the packet that I bought too early @ 3.41

    Chart wise - the price has gapped up twice and ordinary gaps get filled. This notion foreshadows a drop to at least 3.40. However another rarer kind of gap process - a breakaway gap followed by a running gap is bullish, and if we read knowledge of the capital raising into the chart, which is not pure, then it could be the latter kind of gapping going on.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^

    MTU's filled the main gap! That didn't take long. Dropped as far as 3.34 today, which was probably fair buying


    [​IMG]
     
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Pull back and look at the All Data monthly chart. I'm intrigued as to how this will turn out. It could be a double topping chart that will see a big decline, or it could be a consolidating chart that will see a resumption of the bull trend after a break of 3.75. I don't really favour the chance of a sideways ranging prospect or a feeble drifting downwards or upwards. The vibe is that it will resolve firmly one way or the other.

    The bear scenario might come out of a general bear turn in the ASX. Or specific to the company could be a failure to integrate the Primus acquisition. Conversely a recovering ASX, or MTU integrating well with Primus could spark and fuel a major bull move.

    I guess a few months to resolve, this being a monthly chart, but it's a simply strong multi-bagger chart (15x) up to its 3.75 peak.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJuXIq7OazQ

    [​IMG]
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The founder of this company is Vaughan Bowen. During the recent rights issue he announced he would be taking up a chunk of his entitlement. This to draw other punters in it can now be assumed:

    21 May 2012: Vaughan Bowen: Number acquired 1,471,683 Value $3,914,676.78

    Because recently he has dumped considerably more than that, about 30% of his holding:

    5 Jun 12 13 Jun 12 Vaughan Bowen: Number disposed 2.5 million Value $8,605,620.26

    Another Director doing the same thing on a lesser scale:

    21 May 2012: John Hynd: Number acquired 276,860 Value $736,447.60
    18 June 2012: John Hynd: Number disposed 76,384 Value $257,942.35

    That is a big warning.

    Also, I contacted Motley Fool by email asking why MTU had been dropped from their subscriber portfolio, and even their watchlist. One of them replied,
    "You're right MTU was our Top Stock for 2012. As we outlined after the Primus acquisition though, we're less bullish until we see how the acquisition is bedded down. This is a larger bite than any MTU has taken before, so we're recommending members wait until we see some certainty."
    I was in before Motley Fool's reco, but their enthusiasm added to my commitment to the stock.

    I'll be lightening up if I can get a shot at $3.70 again.
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Double top, and has firmly resolved into a steaming pile of horse s**t on a cold morning. Looks like I skarewed up, getting on this one.
    Closed on its low with rising volume on a generally positive day on the ASX. This could easily break down here and visit even older lows. At the moment its at that April/May low which is also the imputed value at the time of the capital raising. Market price of the rights + price of the exercise of the rights = .34 + 2.66 = $3. Rumour on another forum that Rog Montgomery's fund sold the stock because the ex M.D and founder Vaughn Bowen did so after the rights issue was completed. I mean - a lot would have been encouraged that Vaughan Bowen was exercising a hefty amount of his entitlement to new shares; but there he was, a month later, selling a number far more than his exercised rights for a hefty profit. They get away with a lot.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I know you've all been on tenterhooks for an MTU update. It was a bit bizarre. The very day after posting dire possibilities for my speculation in MTU, the thing did a massive pivot and hasn't looked back. Call me paranoid but I think it very suspicious that the price was pushed down below $3, which would have 'run' a lot of stops, then there was instantly a big loading up. Just more plundering of the lumpen investoriat by the professionals in my view. Anyway I have hung on and should really be unloading the 10,000 shares I bought too early @ 3.41. The thing is risky to hold because the company reported on August 29 last year. That would be Wednesday if repeated this year. If the report is good this thing will blow imo - not that I would suggest buying at this point, quite the contrary. Gnash gnash.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Prior

    Prior Member Silver Stacker

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    I missed buying in when it dropped to $3 by 3c. Didn't up my order and didn't want to chase. Spewin :/
     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So close Prior. It had to be a technical buy on that high volume piercing candle, Tuesday July 17. Not that I bought, as I was freaking out at being over weight at that time. Another reason I think this has been played - check out the way it seems to have been 'capped' at 3.45 then 3.48 from Aug 8.
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just tidying up on this highly popular thread.

    27 Aug Sold some MTU at 3.66
    31 Aug Sold some MTU at 3.50
    That got me outta the parcel that I bought too early @ 3.41

    Today
    24 Sep Sold some MTU at 3.47

    Now left with 44% of my original holding at average $2.82

    Was hard to do because there is a dividend imminent.

    Reasons:
    My conviction took a downturn when Vaughn Bowen (Director and founder) sold a big parcel after the cap raising that dwarfed the amount he subscribed to in the raising. That was a sprat to catch a mackerel, and I would now not trust the guy.
    Two analysts that I respect are holding off buying the stock until the Primus acqusition has proved itself - Roger Montgomery's fund, and the Motley Fool tipster service.
    Skaffold has downgraded the stock from an A2 to a B3!
    The chart is ambiguous - it could rise a long way or fall a long way, imo
     
  13. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Broke through the 3.75 resistance yesterday and has continued today. However the old top looms at 4.00. Will probably lighten further today or tomorrow.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Closing this thread now. Pulled the pin today @ $3.85. No way for me to tell whether the chart isn't approaching a double top, and I no longer have enough faith in the company & management to wait an event like that out. There's still a prospect that this will resolve into a breakout from a 2 year consolidation; it's a fairly healthy looking chart atm. However my current mood is 'better a bird in the hand than 2 or 3 in the bush'. Thankyou for your many many comments, lol

    [​IMG]
     
  15. kennyfong

    kennyfong New Member

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    Thanks for the thread! Pity there were not more comments
     
  16. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A less desperate, classier poster would not add this. I am not that poster ..

    [​IMG]
     
  17. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Still not classy. Frkn hell...

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mtu_mthly_dec_2014.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     

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