Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by bsides, Aug 23, 2016.
Will this one ever get back to 10c?
Speaking of Rare Earths, what happened to this sector in general? I remember when I first started stacking these stocks were going crazy. Now they are in a sh*t-heap by the look of it. Oh I can recall how it was the end of the world and you had to buy them because China wasn't going to share them...
Very interesting chart....
Any other ASX stocks in this sector that I can do a bit of comparative analysis?
I started buying Lynas at $2.30 per share from 2011... lost around $130k on this dog due to inept management, Malaysian agit groups, total disaster...
I wouldn't touch this company again with the longest f&cking bargepole known to humankind...
BuggedOut - steer well clear mate - there are easier plays in new tech/materials
It has had such a huge fall and negative sentiment that it might be at that point where it can hardly fall much further. The contrarian in me says it could be a great buy at this price.
I had a quick look around for others in the Rare Earths sector and didn't find much. ALK might be an interesting one with a gold exposure (bonus play!) and I also found NTU as a rare earths explorer.
But otherwise it looks a very narrow sector, dominated by China. With potential protectionism on the rise and even conflict with China this could be a massive sleeper (well, the resource at Mt Weld anyway, if not the company itself). Commodities in general have rallied a bit so far in 2016 and I'm wondering if Rare Earths might just be lagging a bit.
From a technical perspective the massive downtrend since 2011 may have been broken in late 2015 (similar to gold) and another break upwards from a medium term trend in July, but it looks kinda sleepy and a bit weak right now so timing is not right.
I take your warning on board and these Rare Earth companies are definitely high risk plays, but I put all 3 companies on my watch list and I might have a little dabble if I get the right signals.
Arafura Resources ARU
I'd never want to touch either of these again either. The operators of this sub-sector played share market participants cynically and ruthlessly imo.
Hype was full on. I was a holder but got attacked for questioning the viability of a mine. One guy, much smarter than me, a surgeon, couldnt see how i could call ARU speculative. On forums, every other day there'd be updated spreadsheets from an accountant type on how much money our company would make from present rare earth prices. Another one, a metallurgist would keep us very informed about how the nuts and bolts would work, lol. Another regular used to sign off, "Patience, time will tell, always has always will." Turns out, by his own admission, he was trading it. The management's still ramping away. I would never trust the managements in this area again. Added to which, the chemistry of processing very complicated, the market for products fickle, plant costs gi-normous.
The price charts could look a bit interesting for a trader:
LYC 3 year monthly
ARU 3 year monthly
I suspect the same thing is going on in the Lithium sector right now.
Thanks for sharing. I do consider myself a bit of a short/medium term trader, but I always make the assumption that everyone else is a liar and a crook (yes, I am too cynical I know) but it does keep me out of trouble sometimes.
I don't quite think so - rare earths were always too exotic to predict fully their applications, then with China holding the monopoly the supply chain was always going to be prone to them rigging the prices.
Effectively thanks to Nick Whatsisface Millionaire with homes in the best parts of Sydney and seats on boards as a supposed 'expert' director he seemed to ignore the fact that China didn't want the world's largest REE processor sitting next door in Malaysia - so CN spun loads of rumours about radiation and what was a billion dollar investment turned into one big fat white elephant.
I am surprised though that a CN group hasn't bought up Kuantan for pennies.
Maybe that was always their plan.
Lithium is a different bucket of eels imo.
Thanks for input all. Sorry to hear of the losses incurred previously
The 3 rare earth companies I track are LYC, ARU and PEK.
Also the mention of ALK is an interesting one as a newsletter I follow recommended it at 22c before it shot up....
Just reading up on rare earth, what is so special about it?
It doesn't seem rare at all like I thought. Is it a specific one so why the interest the most common one seems to be more plentiful than copper, is that right?
Now I understand a little.
Reading the PIO thread on hot copper reminds me of the lynas thread around 2010.
Love your work Sid. You know that.
Looks like someone missed GXY, and PLS @ 5c a pop.
Don't hold GXY or GMM anymore, but all in free carried PLS. Terrible.
Hold PIO @ 6.8 .... c###s
Oh how bout GGG for the watch list then - also touted as the 'blue chip' of rare earth investment back in the day.. LOL. At least going through bubbles prepares you for the next one.
Oh dear... (Wikipedia):
"In November 2013, an opinion piece published in the Danish newspaper Dagbladet Information, signed by members of the Danish parliament Johan Lund Olsen and Finn Srensen and 4 other individuals, raised concern that Greenlandic and Danish authorities had not properly investigated the allegations made by Australian newspapers of ties between GGG's owners and various figures with criminal backgrounds"
Good comments here. And maybe right. If this market picks up even slightly this could be the concrete bottom floor.
This has turned out to be a really good thread
Thanks guys. I have lernd some fings!
LYC weekly candle chart. As always DYODD.
LYC keeps performing. Good last 3 months.
364 million shares traded last week (about 50m after 4pm Fri). Strongest wkly volume since Nov 2015 when LYC was in mid-7s. Trending support line still intact. Only 1 down week in last 15 weeks.
Looks like Lynas is having some good news for the first time in many many years. Those who did some buying in 2015/2016 and HODL are doing well. Current price is $2.43
What is everyone's thoughts on rare earth prices over the coming years? Seems like it will be in great demand if current tech trends continue and China might decide to restrict exports again as these trade wars ramp up. Or as China "starts" to become more environmentally conscious this might put up the price a great deal. Could it shoot up to 2011 levels?
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