For a next cycle, up and down. Those that wait for a lower price to buy, will have to wait for another cycle. So the $13 $12 $10 $8 $5 calls, well zzzzzz. Those that think of selling, it delivers more fiat post dealer loadup. Over an hour or so a next COT report may confirm (again). The Chinese version of the US Comex is another element but as far as I saw (just a few data snapshots over all the time is all) it weights much less in terms of price impact. If anyone knows a COT report equivalent for there, or where to find this data, it would increase the scope of my blabla.
Pirocco, If you believe the "conventional wisdom" that Commercials are the "smart money" and generally turn out to be right, then today's COT seems quite bullish for silver. Commercials are probably more long now than they have been in some time. http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1437766313.php Just my opinion. Jim
Today's gold COT report showed that Swap Dealers have more long position than shorts, wow :lol:! What was the last time that happened? A "technical" bounce has started today; probably it is a good trade to buy some GLD or SLV call option.
I didn't follow gold much this year. For silver the last report showed this: 21/07/2015 11167 $14.75 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20383 Short 35512 Net: -15129 SwapDealer Long 46724 Short 42762 Net: 3962 ManagedMoney Long 40552 Short 55303 Net: -14751 OtherReportables Long 26024 Short 7028 Net: 18996 SmallTraders Long 23438 Short 16516 Net: 6922 The previous bottom position was: 28/10/2014 14155 $17.22 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 20101 Short 37991 Net: -17890 SwapDealer Long 37608 Short 33873 Net: 3735 ManagedMoney Long 40577 Short 46254 Net: -5677 OtherReportables Long 16892 Short 5283 Net: 11609 SmallTraders Long 25038 Short 16815 Net: 8223 And further back: 03/06/2014 9640 $18.780 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16409 Short 36740 Net: -20331 SwapDealer Long 42374 Short 31683 Net: 10691 ManagedMoney Long 35166 Short 42804 Net: -7638 OtherReportables Long 14612 Short 6208 Net: 8404 SmallTraders Long 25023 Short 16149 Net: 8874 03/12/2013 12165 $19.06 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 14607 Short 38575 Net: -23968 SwapDealer Long 34199 Short 22396 Net: 11803 ManagedMoney Long 28557 Short 32332 Net: -3775 OtherReportables Long 11881 Short 5205 Net: 6676 SmallTraders Long 25990 Short 16726 Net: 9264 25/06/2013 4093 $18.925 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16293 Short 43724 Net: -27431 SwapDealer Long 39439 Short 16101 Net: 23338 ManagedMoney Long 26690 Short 26512 Net: 178 OtherReportables Long 7815 Short 7156 Net: 659 SmallTraders Long 19432 Short 16176 Net: 3256 (this was the lowest position I saw since I started monitoring it) I'm not a cycle player, just stack silver, and I decided to skip this one. Euro weak / biggest silver ETF SLV still has nearly the entire stock it accumulated over the years, and coin sales still tripled. I see some room for lower price and more silver. Need it to correct, bought most at $32 in 2011. To add: at my previous purchase last year, a Maple costed 15 euro. It's now 15.73. Weaker euro.
How much are you intending to buy if an October low arrives thats if you dont mind me asking? I am only a small time stacker and anytime that the silver price is lower than my last buy is a good new buy to me
Probably 300-500 oz or so. Although prices are fantastic at the moment, I'm really trying to get in at a better price. Nothing in the charts indicates it's heading to the moon anytime soon. I don't mind being patient, and trying to look for the bottom as an entry point. It's been a losing investment for the last 5 years....I can wait.
Trying to get in at the lowest price will fail. As soon as Prices reach your estimated level to buy you think it will go lower. The lower it goes the more fear you will feel that your goal was wrong. If you really want to go in, buy always in portions as soon you feel it is cheap. I expect you only know how it feels being into a declining market.( last four years) As soon you make the experiance in a climbing market you will know why it is much better to get a average buying price than try to fish the ground. Beeing here in one year i expect price is much higher than now and your stock is zero or you bought on a higher price than it is today.
^ Was planning on making that move AFTER it gains strong support & momentum. Could go down to $8 before finally gaining support, in which case I stock up for $10. Sure, I wouldn't hit the $8 mark, but I'd get a lot more metal, by NOT dollar cost averaging all the way down. Buying on the uptrend once it officially starts is where it's at.
Also - it may be past October when we actually see the lows. I read about the possibility of the Fed raising rates twice...? Might be seeing $700 gold , $10 silver. Who really knows.
