1. JT interviews Philipp Vorndran of Flossbach & von Storch. Philipp Vorndran of Flossbach & von Storch and James Turk, of the GoldMoney Foundation, talk about Greece and the necessary debt restructuring and how this could be borne by European banks, being between 2 and 3% of the Eurozone's GDP. However other dangers lurk: Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Spain or Italy could all pose significant problems in the future. Philipp has just come back from Spain and says that he feels much more confident about there not being a liquidity crisis in the short term, with banking system issues larger than admitted by the government, but still manageable for the next few months. Belgium, Italy and the UK are next on his list of places to visit as he sees significant problems there too. Increasing government instability in Europe is a worrying development given historical precedent. They talk about US government debt being put on negative watch and how people and governments outside the US are reconsidering their holdings of US Treasuries and US dollars as their reserves. They talk especially about China and how the shift to precious metals has started in earnest, as investment options are limited, fixed income gives negative real returns and Real Estate is starting to slow. They talk about how the ECB and the Fed are very much in sync in their money printing strategies, with the monetary base doubling since 2008. Philipp calls out the US on the Treasury bond ponzi scheme and argues that this tag is well deserved from the moment that the Fed became the largest holder o f US debt. They talk about inflation, double digit at least, as the most likely route taken by politicians to escape the debt burden. They explain asset allocation and how the base of a portfolio must be 15 to 25% invested in physical gold and silver. They then go on to discuss where to find positive returns: the handful of countries willing and able to pay their debts: Chile, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong. However Philipp remarks that these are very small and will be flooded with investment money looking for safe haven, leading to capital controls. They discuss how inflation eats away at savings and destroy incentives to save and invest. James explains how capital formation is the key to long term and sustainable economic growth and that a country that destroys savings and its middle class through inflation can soon sink into poverty as has happened many times throughout history. They talk about the impoverishment of latin America in the past 60 years and how quickly the world can change and great nations can be brought to their knees if they do not look after their finances. They imagine the future of the world's monetary system, both agree that the best way to protect your wealth is through tangible assets, geographical diversification and above all education and keeping your eyes open. They discuss which countries hold the most gold reserves and joke about whether the US and Germany hold the gold that they claim to own, given the lack of transparency of the Fed and the Bundesbank about their gold reserves. They talk about the political bent of central banks in today's world, as opposed to the independence of the Bundesbank before joining the Euro. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y80Zal4HNMw[/youtube] 2. JT interviews Ronald-Peter Stferle of Erste Bank Ronald-Peter Stferle, of Erste Bank, and James Turk, Director of The GoldMoney Foundation, talk about gold, mining stocks and the financial situation. Ronald talks about how he first got interested in gold, through mining stocks as an equity analyst and became very bullish when he examined the supply-demand situation. Later, as he learned about gold's monetary role he became even more optimistic about the gold price and its role as a safe haven. James and Ronald talk about the Austrian school of economics and how, despite being Austrian and an economist, Ronald had never heard of Mises, Menger and Hayek until a few years ago. They discuss the greek debt crisis, QE, the Euro and the Dollar. They draw parallels between Austrian hyperinflation in the 1920s and the current US fiscal imbalances. Ronald is unsure about whether the outcome will be hyperinflationary, as James expects, or hyperdeflationary as Antal Fekete predicts, but argues that gold will be good portfolio insurance in either scenario. They talk about gold's fundamentals and how its low production/stock ratio makes it an ideal currency. They explain why gold protects wealth and holds purchasing power, as well as enabling economic calculation. They talk about silver and its high volatility, they agree that it will outperform gold over the course of the bull market, but Ronald states that he does not expect it to return to the classical 15 to 1 gold/silver ratio, as he expects gold to be remonetized. He recommends investors in precious metals holding 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver. They talk about the dangers of eastern European exposure for the EU and Austrian banks in particular and Ronald rejects Paul Krugman's notion that they will be a focus of instability as their absolute debt levels and consumer indebtedness are actually much lower than many western countries. Eastern Europeans also have a lot of interest in physical gold. Ronald talks about his preference for physical gold over ETFs or any "paper gold" alternative. They talk about gold mining shares and how they are tremendously undervalued and will likely end up outperforming gold in the final stages of the bull market. They also talk about the uncertainties posed for equities by the end of QE2 and how it is unlikely that the Fed will completely end stimulus given US government financial needs, however Ronald expects that they might come up with a new name instead of calling it QE3. They also talk about seasonality and election year impacts on stocks and commodities. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBTSfGdYTTs[/youtube]
Claus Vogt Interview with James Turk Claus Vogt (Sicheres Geld) author of "The Global Debt Trap" talks to James Turk, Director of The GoldMoney Foundation, about the global financial situation, especially the dangers of the global sovereign debt. Claus explains that there is no easy way out of overwhelming debt and that once the burden becomes unbearable and impossible to repay there are no easy ways out. Inflation hurts the poor the most and redistributes wealth from savers and the middle class to those close to the source of new money, while default and bankruptcy also causes severe hardships. They talk about the inflationary endgame and the grave consequences of reaching the point of no return and sliding into what Ludwig von Mises called "the crack-up boom", with hyperinflation, currency destruction and a flight into real goods. Claus explains that the whole US Treasury Bond confidence game will come tumbling down, creating a funding crisis, rapidly rising interest rates and accelerating inflation. Claus sees stocks overvalued and technically near a top and expects them to head down in the following months. He also expects commodities to correct, within the longer term uptrend. He explains that emergent markets are acting as leading indicators and have already started to correct, while US stocks topped out. Claus Vogt sees the rising interest rate scenario, the end of QE and surging inflation as the catalyst for a new recession. Claus Vogt and James Turk explain that the only way out of a debt trap is to liquidate said debt. Liquidation means paying or defaulting, thus extinguishing debt. In either case the market clears and the economy can resume its normal growth without uncertainty. The alternative, kicking the can down the road by repeatedly extending, renegotiating, rolling over or pyramiding debt on more debt, not only is the road to a much more catastrophic and severe default further down the road but also submerges the market in a fog of uncertainty and mistrusts which paralyses economic activity. The other exit is to attempt to falsify the entire process through inflation, just as clearly a default or haircut as any other, but masked through the monetary illusion of depreciating currency. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAWEkidyhkA[/youtube]
Great video's, Interesting to hear in the last video how they both agree that Gold won't loose value if we have a double dip as this time it wont be a liquidity problem, people will be looking for safety. Settled my mind a bit!
JT interviews Pierre Jovanovic Pierre Jovanovic (jovanovic.com) talks to James Turk (GoldMoney Foundation) about John Law, the Mississippi Bubble and how John Law duped the French people and the French Regent into buying his shares and allowing his Bank to issue bank notes. They explain how the whole experiment blew up in just 5 year and the terrible consequences for the whole of France. They then talk about the repetition of the fiat money experiment during the French Revolution and how that lasted only 7 years: from 1789 to 1796. How just a couple of generations after John Law, the French people had forgotten the lessons learnt and fell for the same fiat money scam again, this time in the form of the revolutionary Assignat. He explains how originally the Assignat was not supposed to be a form of money, but rather a debt instrument backed by the confiscated property of the church. He explains that the very low prices at which confiscated church property was to be sold drove the demand for the first issue of Assignats, which were the only means of paying for these properties. However the government soon abused its powers and issued more paper money than could be backed by any amount of real estate, with even more dire consequences for the French people. They also talk about current day similarities and lessons to be learnt. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2AKrzLvItI[/youtube]
