Hi guys, I know this might not be everyone's cup of tea, but I just want to share with my fellow SS friends here what I see from the charts. I am currently waiting to buy silver on dips below $30. So where is a suitable place to buy? I try to look for the key long-term support areas below $30 on the silver ($US) weekly chart. Here are my findings of where the key support areas are right now: $26.42 (fixed) : 22/1/2011 and 24/9/2011 Low $24.46 (rising) : Bullish Support trendline starting from 25/10/2008 (trendline started 3 years ago) $23.56 (falling): Bottom of flag in flag formation (flag started 3 years ago) $21.36 (fixed) : 15/3/2008 High (3.5 years ago) Attached below is the weekly Silver/USD chart for your reference. Hope this help give some food for thought for some of you who are waiting to buy silver just like me. Usual disclaimers apply... this is not a trade recommendation or investment advice, just a small-time silver investor sharing his findings to those who are interested. Where do YOU think the current correction will end? Do you think it will even go below $30?
. I think silvers going back to 27 /28 , based on zero financial knowledge and my nose. Thats what i'm waiting for anyhow. its 32 and rising at time of post.
@RomanControl: Haha.. the drop to that level might come any-time soon. At least that's what I think anyway. Not just based on clues given by the charts, but also fundamental reasons like uncertainty in Europe, deflation, and weakening copper prices... @Retardedmonkey: True, charts can give you an indication, but never a prediction.
Thank you so much for sharing this is what silverstackers should be about, the sharing of information
I think we will see it go through $34 US rather than go back through $30. Just my feeling anyway. How longs a piece of string? Scorp
Dear Scorpion, In response to the age old question regarding the length of a pice of string : It is twice the length on one end to the centre. I hope this helps. Come to think of it, this seems to be a pretty similar formula the one that gelxi used on the charts. Mr.G
I'm not good with charts... In fact would not have the foggiest! Can someone please explain in a bit more detail and in simple terms what exactly this chart shows/means/predicts? Thanks in advance
@Nedsnotdead: There will likely be a lot of buyers waiting at the long-term support levels listed out above. It will really take a major sell-off to breach each long-term support price level. Hence in my opinion these are the good places to place our own buys. I indicated how long ago each support has been established because, usually, the longer the support has been around for, the stronger the support is.
The only problem to my mind, is that the price of silver does not rely on matheatical variables that can be predicted. Silver's price is determined either directly or indirectly by human action and perceptions. what John maynard Keynes would refer to as "Animal Spirits". For example, if the Fed starts up QE3 next month to try and stem the deteriorating global situation, then it's likely that the price of silver is going to go up despite all technical predictions. Then the tea-leaf chart readers will slink back into their holes until the next opportunity to pronounce the key support and resistance levels. Four years to get an Economics degree and the most important thing I learnt is that nobody can predict anything - too many variables. If macro-economists fail miserably, then chart analysts are not going to fare any better. More often than not, the analysis is a post-mortem after the fact because after all, you're right until you are wrong. We're all here because we have become convinced that it's safer to have our wealth in metals than in fiat. Most of us also believe that we will gain from it in the long run. And even that may be wrong. But in the end, I'm convinced technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves. The real skill of a technical analyst is in convincing others that you actually know and can predict something when reality shows this is not the case.
My crystal ball is broken, but I don't see silver falling below 30 again. Now that I said, that 27 here we come (and Sprott rejoices).
Bump, news lately seem to be inflationary... am still holding out for a dip. but would love to hear your thoughts?
Forget the chart, just go with your heart. If you're trying to shave off every last dollar it's going to drive you crazy and can bite you in the ass if your timing is wrong. Look at a 1,2 and 5 year silver chart and everything will be clearer. Silver is consolidating! A wonderful time to buy a lot of Silver. If it drops more, don't be upset, just buy as much as you can. If Silver goes parabolic again like how it did earlier this year, you hold off and wait for a crash/dip to buy more. It really is about feel. Now go get that Silver boy! Before it goes to $40.
OK here's my train of thought right now. Not sure whether it will shoot up or shoot down in the near term (although tonight's employment figures out of USA will have a big say in that), but I'm sticking to my game plan of only re-accumulating only if it reaches near support. The latest developments in Europe and China with the Global Easing tells me this : i) With more money being pumped in to the markets, inflation will definitely be of a bigger magnitude and accordingly, silver's long-term price potential is raised. Nice! ii) However, would this move really help the global markets avoid a near term collapse with all the other negative factors at play right now in Europe and China? As we know, with silver being also an industrial metal, is susceptible to being hit. I am of the camp that believes that with the volatility that the world markets are experiencing right now (caused by the higher sensitivity to news of investors/traders of late), and with the uncertainties in Europe and China, that there is a chance for the long term supports to be challenged again. Will attempt to play the patient game. If it flies away and never come back down to long term supports, yes I'll have missed out an opportunity. But if it comes down to the technical support, I'll have gotten a bargain. So in a way, it's a gamble for a greater opportunity.
