So silver is a hedge for inflation, yeh it might be, but we aren't at the point where we are buying stuff in gold or silver and bartering... so here are some things to notice incase you missed it. As the value of the USD went down (presumably) due to QE and money printing (devaluation), silver rose, correlation is there and easy to see. Money needs to go somewhere as its printed so it goes into commodities hence the large rise in commodities we had (and silver). Easy correlation to see and every man and his dog on youtube is spouting this info ... USD is still at all times low relative to the AUD and other currencies yet silver is still dropping against the USD...HARD ... whats going on here. Almost seems like the correlation between the amount of money in the system isn't effecting the price of silver in the way that its expected .... So as of now, the talk of silver as a hedge and store of value and wealth is totally and utterly moot. This simply shows that silver was moving the way it was due to forces outside of fundamentals, forces such as speculation + leverage had more of an effect on the market. I think silver is a good hedge for inflation but if the price of silver moves way faster then inflation then you know something is wrong. If its coasting along nicely keeping up or staying just above then you know its a good way to hedge. Its true that if we have a re-evaluation of all the money in the world that we might get the 100+ silver and 5000+ gold or whatever, BUT we aren't there yet, not in the next 6 months at least and an event such as this is massive, why ride a rollercoaster where you have no control when you can drive a car, yeh its true its a mountainous up and down terrain but at least you can decide when to stop, get out, take a break then jump back in again ?!
Well follow that logic through..if silver is 'unnaturally' going against all the expected trends it means that there's something else going on to cause (manipulate?) the price of silver, and just silver (not copper, not gold) sharply downwards. Follow the money, who is set to gain from a lower silver price? Well there's enough info out there posted on this forum every day to answer that. It shows what kind of a sham that so-called 'markets' are now. The idea of a market, whether its a stock market, futures market, commodities market or a fish market is to price discover. Right now, no one really has ANY idea what a fair price for a troy ounce of silver is. Lots of us on this forum are of the opinion that it (physical silver metal) has been undervalued for so long that it HAS to be higher than the prevailing commodity markets tell us. Yes the question this begs is "When do you go ALL-IN?"
Isn't the current slide in the price primarily a result of COMEX hiking margins though? They've totally changed the playing field. I have a gut feeling that this dip will be short lived - and we'll be back into $45USD+ before month's end.
I'd say the 'good news' of Osama dying and some slight strengthening of the USD has also pushed silver down a little notch. But the major factor would definitely be the COMEX margins imo
Yeh thats true, something is manipulating it BUT why does it always have to be the conspiracy theory .. why ?! Look at it from pure logical and economic view points ... Lets look at it from your point of view then ... OK, its undervalued at 15, at 20 at 30 then in 8 weeks or less it gained another 50% of value ? WTF just happened in two weeks ? Did an alien ship from the andronema galaxy just come and suck all our silver out of the ground in 2 months .. seriously ? Course not. If silver was still trading at 32,34,35 id still be holding cause i would feel that it is undervalued or moving in trend with how it should be, if it dipped to 28-30, id buy some more also, but when it goes to 50 or there abouts in 2 months or less you can bet your bottom dollar there has been manipulation but not the one you think.. its leverage that has maniplulated the markets, just as leveraged has manipulated the housing market here in aus to make your average 3 bedder in a decent location 500-600k + When this happens then of course you will get a massive spike down, people are leveraged and that is the main manipulation, initally 5% margins to buy a position on the comex, seriously, you cant even get a house in aus with less then 20% of a down payment ! and at 10% you need mortgage insurance LOL .. 5% to get a position is massive leverage me thinks ... So yeh, silver may get to 50 as its true market value in some time in future but it needs to trade properly , it shouldnt be *manipulated* upward artificially, cause if it does it will fall back to earth and correct its self. Its EMH , once you get an imbalance, the market will snap it up and bring the balance back to where its supposed to be ... so is silver under priced ? yep getting to it ... right now ... na not yet ... i do think so anyway I dont think you should ever really do that .. BUT thats just me only place i would do that is in poker and thats if its a $5 buy in haha ...
In 5 years, the renewable energy industry will be gobbling up the entire mine output, I doubt there will be much silver to invest in.
That was the interesting thing with the margin hike chart beginning around last year (on zh I think), around 6k required back then now close to 20k. If you're spec'ing in a few markets that's a bit of rise to accommodate. Haven't seen the margin hikes across other commodities so no idea if it's the norm or not
Yeh that could be true if no one finds an alternative to silver by that time , but the key words here are "5 years" .... not 1-2 months .... so yeh silver will surely rise due to its fundementals but it needs to trade properly and stop living up to its name of being the "devils metal" where it tempts you and gives you everything you want, then dams you to hell .. or a loss in your silver value ...
But if silver is in backwardation in the futures market then wouldn't a reduction of the number of futures for silver via margin hikes remove said backwardation?
Is it possible that comex is attempting to bring paper silver to represent a fractional banking relativity to the silver market as a support for an eventual monetary role for silver? Or is it just about the heavy industries needing the price low?
Much simpler than all the charting and psychic analysis. As silver rocketed in price for no other reason than speculation to the point of "panic" buying & perhaps greed then many big players took their profits. Analysis by experts after the event is easy. You can fit any explanation in hindsight - killing of Bin Laden, tornados in the USA, sunspot activity, quantative easing, Royal Wedding ? - take your pick .
So on 22nd March silver is at around say 35 dollars and at its peak on say 29th april its 48 dollars. This is 13 dollars increase in say 38 days , lets round it so its easier, 39 days. This means its about 30 - 35 cents rise everyday which is about 7% rise for a month give or take silvers movements . So given this the case, lets apply what the video says to what silver should be by the end of this year. @ may its $48 with its increase of about 7% since say beginning of may at 35-38 dollars (sorry i dont have a chart analyser on this computer) @ june its $51 from $48 dollars with 7% increase compounded @ july its $54 from $51 dollars with 7% increase compounded @ august its $58 from $54 dollars with 7% increase compunded @ june 62 .... @ july 66 @ august 70 @ september 75 @ oct 80 @ nov 86 @ dec 92 REALLY ... $92 dollar silver By the end of 2011, i dont think even the super bulls predicted that one ... Einstien even said words around this regarding compounding (something along the lines of there is no greater power in the universe then compounding , something like that). So yeh if we follow the logic in the video then silver should be 92 bucks or there about ! HOWEVER, The main thing to consider is given the project price at the end of dec (if it was to continually rise) USING economical reasoning, does that price we see at the end look legit ?! seriously .... 92 dollars if it doesnt look legit then its simple, it must be false or manipulated by some force for it to be prematurely that high. Efficient Markets Hypothesis says that imbalances in the market do not last, they will always correct themselves and things will return to balance. Hell , many of the really clever traders use what is called value model which basically shorts over priced stock/commodities and longs under priced stock /commodities using complex methods and ways to pick these stocks/commodities. In this case when silver past a certain threshold it was no longer under valued and may even be considered over valued and is now correcting. It will then get to a point of balance, where it is considered as under valued and slowly making its way back up. Even think back at stellas videos, he kept saying that the *value* trade for him at X price doesnt exist anymore and hence he is exiting ... Maybe at 7% per year the price is more reasonable NOT 7% per month maybe it should move like gold, BUT if it trades outside of its normal ranges then, yeh, hold it (dont get greedy), take profit and wait for it to return back to its normal range.... But again, if you like stacking as a hobby then it doesnt matter what the price is KEEP stacking, and if you dont have your core then keep stacking, when the dragons come out i couldnt give a rats what the price is im gonna buy them (of course within reason and my means) and if you are going to buy something silly then maybe to feed that consumerism you can get silver instead of the latest gadget whatever it is... but again the numbers, the charts just dont lie, there is no point arguing the price of silver in x amount of time ... if your in it for an investment to make a gain price matters and reasoning through the price fluctuations is important ...
LOL, its not about price. Its about silver ever increased use, thats why I posted that video. Steady % increase and it won't even be 5 years. Why would You even thought that I was reffering to price and not demand? :lol:
Hahaha ok, and i agree "Steady % increase" thats why soon im gonna be back in on the heavy stack'in I just dont agree with parabolic increases ... And if your talking about silvers ever increasing use, thats true, but if we were to run out of it im sure humans are clever enough to hopefully work our way around it. I think i saw an article of some japanese company that is turning two different types of metals into something that can replace silver ... Look at oil, drives the world and is probably the worlds real currency, but people on the outskirts are starting to work out methods of producing energy from nuclear cell batteries, solar and even cars that run on water ! Im sure when the big bad gov works out a way to tax us on these new forms of energy their use will be made much more wide spread. If i could buy a car that ran on water even tho top speed is 80 id buy it tomorrow
Sure scientists can develop some space-technology stuff but for that you need TIME, even to start production and distribute it. Look how many years electric cars are promoted as a solution for this, that and the other. Do You think that If I would buy electric car here in Europe, I could travel everywhere? Unfortunately infrastructure aint good enough - yet, so I would have my eco-friendly YUPPIE electric car and ... basically thats it. PS To build electric car, you would have to use even more silver than gas roaring V8 engine
And that is why i picked my words carefully - cars that run on water (not electricity) - nuclear cells (bill gates just provided millions in seed to a company that is developing some break through stuff right now) - Solar cells, you see some of the developments and you would be amazed (i dont see any silver in plants or even in our bodies yet somehow we transform sunlight into energy ) Its true, it does take time, people are starting now and you can see it, specially if you follow scientific journals and progress. And it depends on what you regard as time, 5 years (well if thats the time we have left we are well and truly f*cked i concede to that if all you give is 5 years for us to progress to our next phase of technology) but im sure we have bit more time them this ... but then again im always hopeful and do believe that people always find a way ... we have for so many years why not now ... Look at the history of electricity and tesla (read up about tesla tower) Tesla found a way to harness energy from the earth and the surroundings to generate electricity and distribute it through the air so everyone could have free electricity. Can you imagine what the human race would be like if he was allowed to succeed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wardenclyffe_Tower (see the first paragraph) it says due to *financial problems* ! Do you know why he had these problems, because JP morgan (YES, our beloved silver shorter) as in the MAN himself JP morgan wouldnt fund tesla's project because tesla wanted to give this energy away for FREE ! god forbid the profits ..."jp morgan would say" So in the end he couldnt develop it because of this. I am sure that the delay in the production of electric cars or alternative powered cars and machinary for that matter is due soley to the wars that fuel the world today (OIL based) not technological know how. Guys at uni are even building solar powered cars for their thesis. Yeh it goes slower and it looks weird but hell if uni students can do it and get it to work how can industry fueled by billions in dollars not afford to enhance the design for everyday use ? Thats why i said once we are truly fu*ked and there really isnt any oil left and the big bad gov has found a way to own or tax us on alternative energy, these devices, power sources will start to get more prominent. We could have had free power from ages ago but JP morgan blocked it, read the history of tesla and the tesla tower and its funding problems if your interested Its just the same sh!t now as it was in the JP morgan days, someone realises the potential for huge profits and unless they can control it, they dont want anyone to have it ... even at the cost of millions of peoples well being ... This is really the reason why i h@te the fasking banks ...
Silver is way too useful to a myriad of industrial processes to ever be replaced. The only way silver will be replaced in electronics is if there is no more silver to be had.
And so was wood many years ago weaponry, building houses, building tables, building cars ... uses where endless ... Just saying, look at it from the many different perspectives
good observation pmstacker theres always an alternative.. humans are amazing at finding different ways of doing things if we have to
