Pirocco, Despite your well written retorts, you have still failed to answer THE question we were discussing: Who owns the silver in JPM's vaults? Is it JPM? Is it individual investors storing it there? You can call it whatever you want (comex silver, etc), but please tell us who owns it. If you don't know, feel free to say that. You have lots of figures you like to post so maybe you know who owns it? I don't know but am trying to find that out. All the rest of the stuff you are posting on this issue is NOISE... Just my opinion. Jim
No they don't. It is difficult to prove the opposite of a wild claim of wishful delusion... sort of like trying to prove that god doesn't exist. I'm with Pirocco on this one: Also, in the words of this forum's 2015 'Maggie' Bullion Award, and a very credible authority: Source: http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/05/04/silver-investors-corner-market/
Where do you think all the tremendous wealth of gold and silver accumulated through the ages ... it is not gathering dust ...
There isn't much dust in a safe / vault, and the a house market is tremendous wealth too, only that it can collapse, just like any value that was blown up beyond the rest.
:lol: :lol: :lol: It is impossible to prove the opposite but you are surely write the don't own the metal Some believe in devil, some in JP ownership of gold and some in opposite So what we are arguing about?! P.s. They delivered metal on the contract .. who owned the metal untill delivery?
Maybe let's just take it (JP owning all/most of the ounces that are listed in its section the _Stocks.xls files of the Commodity Exchange) for true. It IS possible. Then what? So what? Which conclusions can be drawn? Is there somebody to congratulate? To blame? In the end, in that and any case, JP Morgan purchased those ounces, AND others sold those ounces to JP Morgan Whether it's Homer Silver Simpson or JP Morgan that owns them, what does the owner difference matter for the price trend, and all others owning ounces? Whether it's JP Morgan Chase Bank NA handling the Comex storage, or Brink's Inc, or HSBC Bank, USA, what difference does it make for the price trend? A pile bars is a pile bars. It gets accumulated, it gets depleted. This focus on JP Morgan is as useless as a focus on Homer Silver Simpson would have been. A more useful focus would be WHY some like to shift the "BLAME!" spotlights to JP Morgan? To divert them away from themselves?
Pirocco, I can only answer for myself on this. First, there is no BLAME!, I don't understand what you mean by that, perhaps it is something "lost in translation" as they say? Why it matters to me who "owns" the silver is, if it was JPM that owned it, and if we assume JPM has smart folks that know more about PM price movements "than the average bear" (not a pun but US slang phrase), why would they pour so much $$$ into a stash that size if they thought silver was going to be slammed to $12, or $10, etc? If they have been buying it since 2012, every ounce was bought for more than $14.50, assuming they paid market price. Thus, for them to make such a large purchase over the years, with the intent of selling it later, shows me that they "believe" that the price of silver is going much higher eventually. If all that silver is simply being held for 3 parties by JPM for a fee, then all of this is moot, since presumably they (JPM) would not care about the silver price since it was not their silver. Whomever it is that "owns" all that silver is quite in the red at this point if you think about it, whether it is JPM or 3 party holders. Just my opinion. Jim
Btw, about this chart I pasted some posts ago: Anybody knows the reason for Eligible Silver jumping up from zero somewhere in 2001? Or does it just indicate lack of earlier data for it? Another thing to observe: the Eligible part hung around the same size as the Registered part over the entire period 2001-2009. The latest report (couple days ago) shows the Eligible part 2.73 times the Registered part. And it's the Eligible part that grew alot since, the Registered part still sits around the same amount it was during the bull market.
Look at it from the other side. Those that sold that silver to JPM. IF it owns (most of) that Comex depositories' stock. Why did they pour so much $$$ OUT of a stash that size, if they thought silver was NOT going to be slammed to $12, or $10, etc? And, imagine that JPM had NOT purchased that silver. Who would in their place? Nobody? Homer Silver Simpson?
About this last part of your opinion, why? End 2011 the Comex stock was 112 Moz. It rose, DURING the bear years, to 178 Moz then dropped back to 160 Moz now. During a bear market, there is ALWAYS a red side. And, why would JPM care about the silver price, it's not exactly alike a big systemic bank needs silver money to not default, let alone default at all - any reason. Look at central banks. They sold gold big time during bear decades, to then buy big time during bull years. Central banks are in the red in this entire story, yet that's just what they did and do. Apparently they don't care much about losses on their gold. Apparently they have other reasons to be on the gold market.
Possible. I can ask it in one line too: do you think someone can buy an ounce without someone else selling an ounce?
Why does JPM have to be the buyer simply because some institution decides to sell 1000 oz Comex bars? Did JPM buy them out of the goodness of their hearts so they can sell them to shorts who need to deliver on Comex, even though JPM takes a loss on every ounce (right now and for most of the past year based on prices)? If JPM does "own" them, don't you think they want to make a profit? Or do they simply perform a service by selling at a loss to help others? I consider JPM to be the top of the food chain when it comes to these issues. IF, and that is a big IF, they do own that silver and it is in their name, then they have a reason that involves them making a profit at some point. I don't see any other way for them to profit on all that silver unless the price goes up big time. This scenario involves a large amount of physical silver that is sitting there losing value by the day, week and year. Why would JPM buy that much to lose? Did they simply make a bad choice in buying it all? What am I missing? Jim
Answer on last: everything I said? Because that's what the roles of the company named "JP Morgan Chase" are: bullion bank, swap dealer. Being an entity that serves as a guaranteed counterparty. On a market, every will to sell or buy has to be fullfilled, the price will be changed until that happens. JP Morgan offers that "service". If nobody pops up to buy at a higher price, JP Morgan jumps in and does so. And vice versa, if nobody pops up to sell at a lower price, JP Morgan raises a hand. Is it goodness of their hearts? Maybe yes. Maybe no. Maybe their motivation is just irrelevant. JP Morgan Chase IS an institution. A central bank IS an institution. Hedge funds / pension funds ARE institutions. As said; there is ALWAYS a losing side. But did JP Morgan Chase lose? Did it win? Bullion banks made big profits before and in the earlier phase of the bull decade thanks to govts central banks selling low. And were fined these back by govts with as excuse LIBOR / gold / etc market rigging. Maybe JP Morgan Chase (and all other bullion banks), all together, wun nor lost. Maybe that was the entire govts clubs common goal in the first place. Between entities that work together against other entities, their individual profit / loss is of no importance. What matters for them is the loss they inflicted those other entities. And again: JP's managed silver stockpile may have risen during recent years, the total Comex dropped. And look at the historical chart of the Comex silver stockpile. JP Morgan has now 70 Moz in its Comex depository. 2177 tonnes. The delta wasn't bought during the bull market, but during the bear market. Who makes the biggest losses: those that buy during a bull market, or those that buy during a bear market? Institutions don't look at day charts. Not at week, month and even year charts. They play it on decade resolution. Maybe you should do too. An eventual loss during a year can have been compensated for by a profit during another year. For the record: a price changes on the fly. Homer Silver Simpson can't buy 5000 tonnes silver $10 and can't sell 5000 tonnes at $50. Because with every 5000 ounces bought or sold, the price is moved a tad, and the next 5000 ounces will cost more when buying or receive less when selling.
I give up. But if you think JPM (a for profit company) and a country's central bank are the same type of "institution", then you are wrong. Jim
Guaranteeing counterparty risk does not oblige JPM to be market-maker - there is no obligation for them to provide this service. Orders are fulfilled by supply/demand (price), not by any goodwill service of JPM.
Just a lack of data. I think Nick said the breakdown wasn't published before then, or he wasn't picking it up.
Jim, You are making the mistake of just looking at Comex as a standalone market. Consider the possibility that there are other silver markets outside Comex, say Tocom futures, London forwards market. Any bullion bank could be short in those markets against which it goes long Comex, in doing so being completely neutral. Secondly, JPM's warehousing business is separate to their trading business. Before JPM had a warehouse do you think they never traded in Comex and took or made delivery? The idea that it's warehouse represents its position ignores the fact that it is the shorts who stand for delivery in that they choose when during the delivery month they will make delivery. When they do this the exchange then randomly allocates those shorts and their metal to longs. If JPM happens to be on the end of that they can get warrants to metal in another warehouse - it's not like a long can demand to have it contract settled in a warehouse of its choice and it should be obvious that it is almost impossible for the ounces of short in certain warehouses to match perfectly with the ounces the longs would prefer in a certain warehouse. Therefore there is no way of knowing who owns what in what warehouse.
Bron, Thanks for your response. However, I am not advocating any particular position in this. My whole reason for "debating" this issue ad nauseum with Pirocco, was to see if we could determine who owns (legal title) the silver in JPM's vault? That is all I still wanted to know, or in the alternative, to find out it simply is not possible to know the answer to the question (I see you said we can't know). I do appreciate your input on this and the different markets and how they interact, etc. Jim
