Monthly candles of the DOW going back to the early 80's. Someone else said they thought I was just playing with numbers when I said it looks like the top could be around 16,000 and then a fall to around 6,000 by mid 2015. Do you guys see any signficance to the lines I drew or am I just randomly throwing lines on a chart? ==========
It may or may not be significant - I am no chartist nor want to be. It is certainly interesting to see the increased peaks and troughs of the last 15 years or so. It is easy to see there has been some serious money won and lost along the way. Can you overlay it with the 1920' & 30's. That might be a useful comparison - you'll need to adjust the scale obviously.
The farthest back I can go on that program is 1970 Here is 1900-present http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
But all you're trying to do is predict future values based on lines on a chart. Previous chart patterns can be explained after the event by fundamentals, because that's what they follow. There are no fundamental reasons to believe what you have drawn will come to pass, in fact quite the opposite.
Wouldn't be surprised. The more you interfere with the system the more unstable it becomes and that would be reflected in the stock market.
If you mirror the y axis it reminds me a descending triangle Original kinda reminds me of a car loosing it and over correcting this way and that... or a plane stalling and powering up and stalling
++ Konsole, I don't believe going back to the 20's - 70's or 80's is relevant to here and now. However, the timeframe that I do think is very relevant is 2003 - Present. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia2000.html After the Dotcom bubble and burst the DOW went down to a low of 7286 Oct 02. What spurred the next run was the beginning of the mining boom which also set-up the housing boom. For the next 5 years the DOW was on steroids gainfully outsourced by the Wall St Bankers to anyone and everyone who wished to take up toxic debt through derivatives. Full forward to Oct 07 and you can see the pinnacle on the DOW 14,164. Looking at June 07 when the DOW had dropped to 12,845 was when I believe the bankers were playing the last roll of the dice. The DOW should have crashed and burned 08 - 09. However, it didn't only because of the bailouts and the beginning of the QE Money printing machine by the FED. Full forward to today and what do we see? IMO, close to an exact replica of the chart from 2003 - 2009 and from 2009 till now. Where the top is, no one knows. Could be 18,000. Could be 20,000. I don't believe a chart gives you an exact timeframe. However, it does show the jittery of the market and we saw that during 07 - 08 and I think we are starting to witness some of that now. I think the 10 year treasury notes should give us a fair indication when we are very close to a major hit. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; Been increasing over the last few months. Currently 2.64 Was reading somewhere that if it should get to up around 4.00 get out quick smart. Anyway, that's how I see it without any technical analysis.
markcoinz - I disagree that going back to the 20's or 30's is not relevant. If you look at the graph of the Dow back to 1900 you see that volatility is actually the norm. There's only been 2 periods (post WW2 and the 1990's each roughly 12 years duration) where the index has not suffered from a lot of volatility. It does not tell us the future of course but is reasonably compelling evidence that continuing volatility is more likely than not. Like I said though I am not a chartist - I find charts interesting from a historical viewpoint but of limited use in forecasting (at least on their own - they can be useful with the right context). To be honest though I think the Dow is fairly useless as an index - it does not work the same way as other share indexes such as the S&P500 or ASX200. Not too mention they break their own rules when it suits them. I certainly don't rely on it for any kind of gauge.
Boyracer, I understand about volatility. However, the roaring 20's along with 1929 Market Crash and the Great Depression only highlights the volatility to that time. Greed and market exuberance has been around for many centuries. If we were to chart the time of the Tulip Mania, it would show similar volatility. History does repeat itself when it comes to greed. The reason why I highlighted the 2003 - 2009 and 2009 - Now is simply because there is a similarity. It includes all the twists and turns of the market. As well, we know and understand the fundamentals of what is driving this market. Funny Money! That is enough to make anyone jittery and cause a lot of volatility. Would I use those two examples to guide me for entering or exiting? No way known. Firstly, they are lagging indicators which shows an overall trend in direction. The DOW in its current form and isolated is pretty meaningless. As, I previously mentioned imo the Bond market is a better indicator.
I noticed this today and thought it was worth posting... Daily DOW with 3 touch points of support, and now what might be a touch point of resistance. This chart may not look that significant until you notice what happend in the last 5 minutes of trading today In the first image you can see todays trading ended at what looks like right at the resistance line. Now look at what happened in the last 5 minutes, as if trading was designed to reach the resistance line I drew and stop.... Maybe the line I drew will become irrelevant as soon as tomorrow, but consider how trading ended at the high, and how there was about a 40 point surge in the last 5 minutes to reach that resistance line.
