I think the bottom has happened but Wave B will get us back close to $15 US presenting us with the opportunity to back the truck up before ag starts a long once in a lifetime climb, $15 US never to be seen again. I'm guessing Wave B will bottom out sometime mid April which would make sense. Up until now I have only played with small bits of physical but I'm seriously considering making a big SLV purchase when Wave B concludes. Source: Source:
Why do you believe wave theory has any predictive powers? There are good reasons to buy PMs for some people but I don't see what waves have to do with anything in particular predicting a volatile commodity market like silver Please elaborate. I see these references to wave theory increasingly and yet for me it is nonsense. Every inch of my knowledge of mathematical statistical analysis tells me it is. If you happen to guess right it will just be luck or other conscious or subconscious knowledge but you will credit it to wave theory. If you are wrong you will just say you identified the wrong waves and make another prediction. I just went to my bookcase and pulled down a few volumes to recommend you some starter reading in the subject. I'd say 'Statistics for technology - A course in Applied Statistics' by Christopher Chatfield 1970 Would be a good introduction. If you want to correlate patterns in noisy data like a spot silver chart for one year then you will be shocked at how dumb basing it on random assumptions regarding 'waves'. A cycle in economics by the way does not mean something that necessarily repeats in the same way better understood as 'a phase'.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jts9suWIDlU[/youtube] Surfing is probably more fun than elementary statistical analysis that's for sure dude.
Good article on the storm of nonsense out there in technical analysis " Why technical analysis is shunned by professionals http://www.followingthetrend.com/2014/05/why-technical-analysis-is-shunned-by-professionals/ "The poor reputation of technical analysis is well deserved. It's their own fault really. The way this field has expanded makes it very difficult to take it seriously. It's been reduced to a slogan used by scam artists to sell nonsense books, trading systems, newsletters and 'mentoring' based on quasi religious numerology and mysticism. Professionals stay clear of the term technical analysis for good reason." .... "Speaking of colorful back stories, how about a magical set of wave patterns which also govern everything in the universe? You see, everything in the universe moves up in a formation of five waves and them move down in a formation of three waves. If you can look at a chart and figure out which wave we are in you can use the magical numbers described above to predict exactly where the prices will turn. And when you turn out to be incorrect, you can always revert to your secondary wave count. Or tertiary. The leader of the Wave Cult has been predicting the end of the world for decades and whenever the markets are falling, he's interviewed on TV about his accurate predictions. Kinda like hailing the genius of a stopped watch for being correct twice a day. From here it just goes down hill. Lunar cycles, planetary alignments and outright voodoo. Hell, if someone's willing to buy it, someone else is willing to sell it. And it's all embraced under the umbrella of technical analysis." Love his chart Source: http://www.followingthetrend.com/2014/05/why-technical-analysis-is-shunned-by-professionals/ I wonder if you compared the success rate of inside traders Vs Elliot waves technical traders which one would make more money? Answer is in the question..... Anyone...anyone can call themselves a 'technical analyst'. Silver is volatile and easy and cheap to get into. Like penny stocks except it can't fall to zero. It's bouncy and fun and there is no harm in having a spin. Don't stick your money on something (especially *all* your money) because of lines on chart people. It sickens and disturbs me that the likes of CNBC trots this out to the public as established science. It is not. OP I'm not having pop at you just wave theory. I'd be just as critical of it whether it predicted a bear of a bull in silver or anything else.
"Small bits of physical" Mr Monster Niveka, I hope to one day share your view for what constitutes "small" in this game. So when you talk of backing the track up, I can only assume it's literal.
Well this topic just encouraged me to buy 1,000 ounces, I picked up 500 freedom girls and 500 collective soul rounds! Hope you were right!
It is pretty awful that the likes on CNBC presents these people with charts and lines as 'scientists' who are 'expert'. I'm always reminded of the kind of stuff that would be around for 'systems' for horse race betting or winning lotteries. These would be scams sold in the back of small adds in second rate publications pre-internet. Robert Prechter is a psychology graduate. That explains a lot. He knows there is a deep down desire in all humans to believe in anything that can remove us from the distressing but true thought that most of life is just down to luck.
I think it will be interesting to see what happens with the OP guess. It takes guts to make a forecast on this site. Time will tell.
I predict the price of silver will go up or down. I predict people will try and predict it will go up or down. I predict the price will never fall to zero. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQuVOQwRvQ8[/youtube]
To Oldsoul, in reading your posts for a while now I have no doubt that you know more about this game than I, all I can say is that this is what my gut is telling me. Not just based on that chart alone, but in all the material I've come across in the past months. I may be wrong, I hope I am not. Last night, in the wee hours of the morning I was reading some fairly convincing posts making a good argument that $10 US silver is inevitable, I hope they are wrong. To Chowder, maybe a little guts to make the post but its gonna take much more to pull the trigger to take a significant position in SLV, my target is two weeks, or whenever Wave B concludes. If I do, or if I chicken out I promise I will be honest and let you know either way.
You know the subconscious is an amazing data processor. If that is your hunch then I wish you good luck. I would place a lot more faith in a hunch from someone who had been barraged with both positive and negative data and who had had a good nights sleep than chart analysis. There is never a need to bet the farm though. Bet what you can afford to loose and enjoy the comfort zone of knowing you can't loose all of it. If the dice never gets thrown you can never win the pot. Long time ago I used to get stuck on complex work and quite often after a nights sleep would wake up with the answer. The brain is an amazing thing and has incredible processing power. Edit. Just because it's Barbara Eden. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-r8WMJXvgg[/youtube]
Then there are the likes of those who present based on fundamentals... Maloney, Schiff, Morgan.... It's awful that the likes on CNBC presents these people with sales pitches and scaremongering who are 'expert'. I'm always reminded of the kind of stuff that would be around for steak knives, fitness equipment or Anthony Robbins life coaching. These would be scams sold in the late night infomercials pre-internet. And we all know how that is turning out. The only saviour is that the fundamentalist doesn't need to "own" their mistakes, and can fool themselves with as many excuses as the salesmen-pitched-reasons. I love this chart
Thing is that TA is getting big enough to be self fufilling. If thousands and thousands of traders of all sizes believe $1200 to be a key level and gold breaks below that level they all switch to selling gold and everything happens exactly as they predicted. That's what happens when everyone is reading of the same song sheet. Not sure there's enough people using elliot wave to have this happen but I would not be at all surprised if this was the reason behind a few studies finding some correlation in the more basic TA techniques. . Unfortunately, I think you'll see a lot of people are going to be not elliot waving, but drowning.
I think people use all types of systems to focus their minds on the silver market and the opportunities and risks associated with a purchase. As shown in the comical charts, their is an internal dialogue going on most of the time to explain the ups and downs. However, most long time stackers have a system or routine that works for them. The flippers tend to analyse a little more closely in order to make an immediate profit. The accumulators simply try to buy on the current dip and just move on.
