An alternative thesis and the one I'm leaning toward is that the long term average (can't remember if it's the mean or median) is 75c and that at 65c it is more likely to appreciate than depreciate.
I’m not so sure shiney, financial repression looks to be on the cards, maybe 2025 (western)country by country with the US being the last man standing. I am very open to hearing others views, a different perspective is always welcomed.
I'm not in the deliberate financial repression camp, however I do keep one foot in the financial disruption via piss poor public policy camp though so my opinion that a continually devaluing AUD being the less likely scenario is not a foregone conclusion of course. Ignore prior to 1983, most of the time it's been below USD0.80 and it needs to be when compared to the US economy's output:
I tend to view the depreciating AUD and the lose of purchasing power of the AUD (all fiat)in two separate camps. It’s a oxymoron type view, same but different. AUD Losing value against the USD and also fiat losing value against goods and services. The second being far greater and rapid lose. Gold if anything is a great instrument to measure these loses
This thing went worth nothing. They start asking if they take everyone's money? Nothing left anymore.
Silver is at the other end of the bungee rope. It will go crazy later. The GSR can widen even more before then.
On the topic of the first, the changing nature of the USD as the US has become a net exporter in recent years and it's impact on currencies from smaller net-exporting nations (Oz would be in that camp): https://www.bis.org/publ/work1083.pdf The US terms of trade has been above 100 since about 2015, and even through the "China boom" of the mid-2010's the AUD has been on a steady decline post-GFC. The BIS paper argues that the effects of commodity booms and busts in the future (or is it the recent past?) on the value of the value of currencies like the AUD are diminished to a great extent due to the change in the US terms of trade. An implication for investors is that seeking yield as a result of devaluations in the FX rate in overseas markets may be less effective and that hedging may become more prominent in the decision making process. Is this likely to result in less fluctuations for the POG in AUD and other assets denominated in USD? Maybe.
Shit I sold my house just over 1.5yrs ago after seeing the indicators that I noticed leading up to the GFC (mind you I lost $8.5M in assets and $5M net worth with Bad pick of JV partner in high end property development in the heart of Airlie Beach & Bankrupted). When I asked 2 years ago delay / miss my home loan payment December 2021. Bank said fine as I was fully up to date and well in advance of loan / plenty of equity. Warning was when they asked me if I could make any payment, I asked how much. They said $20 -$50 dollars , I said sure do it now. Then asked if they were doing me a favour and keeping me off a default list. They said yes and no. Yes the payment would mean they don't have to report me as a default. Instantly I knew they were starting to hide defaults back then and we hadn't even had all the interest rises. So they said I was doing them the favour. If I didn't learn from my past and the GFC I have wasted my $5M in lessons. So started getting my property ready to sell, now sold and all is in Gold and Silver (cash in as I need cash in the bank). Was starting to think I Stuffed up but finally I am being validated re the climbing prices now. So when others go through what I've already experienced I'll be poised ready with PM's to cash in and purchase a bargain house and get a win back from all the past lessons / fails. Not meant as financial advice just my 2 cents / opinion and sharing what I've learnt with no UNI education. Get out in life and fail to learn or sit scared and never move forward. Wish everyone all success in this trying time. Kind Regards Bigfella.
