In 2011-2012, I remember a simple 1 oz silver coin cost above 45 $ at dealers (above spot). Stackers were rushing madly, buying it like hot delicious donuts believing "it will go to the Moon". Buying panic. Buy at 45 $ before it hits 50 $! Buy buy buy... it can get to 75 $. Now it can barely hold 15 $ and we're expecting it to fall lower to 10 $. :/ Some said the US debt "will reach" 14 billion $. Well, it did. They said the economy will implode and the dollar will crash. Well, that hasn't happened. Instead: http://www.usdebtclock.org now shows 18.4 billion $ debt. And they even launched an iPhone app. (I don't know how they get the numbers running "live" - I don't know). Silver's and gold's graphs are eerily similar to Bitcoin's graph (after the crash). The typical asset bubble. Those who invested a lot into PM's can only "hope" the same thing happens to fiat money and gold and silver prices make the "inverse move" up.
Didn't stay above $40oz for long did it?...The all time $50oz mark looked like in reach but it was not to be Stayed above $30oz FOR a period of several months then back to sub $20 from where it came. Regards Errol 43
The same "system" that allows large money players to move PM's down on a whim (backed by lots of $$$) in the paper markets-think Comex, is the same "system" that allowed silver to reach near $50 in 2011. It may or may not have been done by the same large players who are driving price down now, but it was not driven up in 2011 by mainstream demand from the public buying metals. Although local buying may have been brisk then, it was still mostly PM bugs buying locally and the big boys playing in the paper market. Until we see a large drop in confidence in paper assets such that the "average man" rushes out to by PM's, the paper markets will rule the day. Whether "they" run the price up or down is up to them. Until real metals are demanded and paper markets are eschewed, nothing will change. Maybe "they" will run up the PM prices again like in 2011 (via the paper markets), but they can drop it back just as quick. Anyone who thinks the world governments can keep on endlessly printing money/debt and operating under "socialized" policies/programs (taking money and wealth from one group to give to another) is going to be proven wrong. At some point even the "sheep" will see that confidence is lost and un-backed promises will falter. When that is going to happen, I don't know. Maybe when people line up to buy silver like they do now to buy the newest "sneakers" on the market or like on Black Friday (shopping day after Thanksgiving in US) we will see real growth in prices. FYI, if the world silver production is 1 billion ounces or so, it would only take a measly $16 billion to buy the whole year's supply of silver. $16 billion is a spit in the ocean when you are talking world powers level $$$, yet there is still lots of silver available for buyers now and those with the billions aren't buying much physical it would seem. Just my opinion. Jim
my 2c.. 1: best time to buy things is when they're out of fashion (pm's) 2: the "average man" is most likely broke and living paycheck to paycheck / on credit card debt.
I vaguely remember Warren Buffet bought several thousand tons of silver when spot was below $5 USD; then when price started to climb, he quickly sold out his position. Many years later, Warren Buffet told the journalist who interviewed him, that he was "told" to sell, or stay away from this market. Who ordered him to sell?
You only have to read; thestreet.com, to see what JPMORGAN has been up to. The January 29th issue explains it all. It's unfortunate how they are able to buy physical silver through there ETF's and not have to take the precious metals they promise they have. As long as silver is down, and i believe it will drop even more, keep buying because one day something will give. When silver and gold finally do break free, I'm sure the investors like us will have a hard time selling some of our hard assets. Can you imagine many of us trying to sell what we have. Will there be new buyers and cash to pay us for our caches?
That US debt would be 18.4 trillion not 18.4 billion, are you looking for a job as a Greek accountant lol
Ok I am new so I can say this without being tainted by time or investment. Think about how low it is now... think. Buy now like mad, regardless if it can hit $13 US, this is going to be one of those things where in 20yrs you will go "why didn't I buy at $14?? Why Baby Jesus. This is the low end of the pendulum, it's going up, unless they can start making silver from dog sh!t.
I guess that is a fair way to look at it. But what if it fails to climb? What if it dives to $10? This is the problem (from my experience) with hard core stackers, they go after the metal without the due diligence required and then complain about suppression when things sink. If you think it is going to fall more then DO NOT BUY NOW cause it makes no sense to waste money that can buy more later on. What if you buy a 1000 ozt at $15 as you suggest and it drops to $9? You would have lost out on over 600 EXTRA OZ's
You're assuming there will be available silver bullion at $9 without any premiums in your example. If silver hits even $13 this year in the paper markets, I bet that the price you will have to pay is not too much below what you have to pay now for coins. I am speculating of course when I say that. But let's look at a recent example of silver hitting bottom, in 2008 when paper silver dropped to below $9 briefly, all the way down from a recent high then of roughly $20. I was out trying to buy at that time and locally all the stores had premiums at least $2.50 over spot for the cheapest crap silver bars/holiday merry christmas bars (not much of that was available) and $4 to $5 over for good stuff like ASEs, Maples, junk silver, decent generic, etc. If somehow silver drops to low levels like $13 and such again and can stay there for a long time, then of course supply would come back into the market, although I am sure by then mine production would be down considerably. Jim
It's an estimate. You work out debt is growing at $XX per year so every second you increase the debt by $XX/31556952 (roughly seconds in a year, depending on which year)
Good points. My advice, never believe a permabull....they are worse than snake oil salesmen. Virtually everything the permabull claims is a lie. They even lie by omitting the fact that the pm market can be manipulated to achieve higher spot prices, not just lower spot prices. PM's are commodities and just like all commodities, their values can fluctuate greatly which means there is unequivocal risks in buying PM's. PM's are not insurance in this universe, contrary to the claims of the permabull. Silver has no intrinsic value. All the value silver has is the value we collectively or individually attach to it. There is a better time to buy and a better time not to buy precious metals blobs.... I like silver, it's shiny. .
Long term Silver's intrinsic value: https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/silver-in-industry/ Long term Fiat currency intrinsic value: http://www.daftgadgets.com/100-bill-toilet-paper.html Jim
OMG Jim!!!!!! Please do not take this personally but this is FACT. When silver was sitting around $40 and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $30 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $25 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $20 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $19 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $18 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $17 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" The price dropped to $16 ,and a drop was predicted people would say " that may be the paper price ,but good luck buying it for that" Well you get the picture. If spot is $xxx then there is ALWAYS going to be somewhere to buy it just over spot. Sure you may have to buy large bars, but if it drops to $9 (and im not saying it will) then YOU WILL BE ABLE TO BUY SILVER for $9 +premium JUST LIKE NOW
As often as is required to be shiny! There's an honesty problem with the Silver Institute. They claim, yet give not a shred of good evidence to support the claim that, "Its unique elemental properties make it impossible to substitute and its uses span almost every sector of industrial application." If silver never existed, we could have similar or the same technology to what we have today in which silver is a component. Besides, that page doesn't describe intrinsic value but intrinsic characteristics/properties that makes silver useful for some today. Silver requires people to attach all value to it...without those people, silver has no value....yet is still has intrinsic characteristics/properties. We should never conflate intrinsic characteristics/properties with intrinsic value. Claiming that silver has intrinsic value, one would also, to be intellectually consistent, have to claim that pretty seashells, elephant feces, and fiat paper money has intrinsic value. .
I remember when a Mars Bar was $35c. I'm guessing it was about the same time silver was $50. Do you think we'll ever see either of those prices again?
There in lies the problem my friend , YOU HEARD. Got to forget the stories and try and deal in facts. This link will show you SPOT $6.72 and they are selling Maples for $8.72 ans ASE's for $8.62. http://web.archive.org/web/20040805092018/http://apmex.com/shop/shop.asp Now those margins look very similar or even LESS to now. I am sure you will say that it is somehow different this time , BUT IT REALLY WILL NOT BE. Or may be i just read it wrong? EDIT: Now that i look at it you can get ASE's for $8.32 if you buy 500 or more. Super keen for everyone to tell me how it will be DIFFERENT this time though.
