Help a newbie out, how to evaluate current Spot

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Rob Bennett, Jan 4, 2021.

  1. Rob Bennett

    Rob Bennett New Member

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    Hey all, just started buying silver last month. Have been studying past charts, and reading up on the future outlooks, trying to get a feel for where current prices are. I have a lot more experience in equities, but I'm at a loss to evaluate fair silver prices.

    So.. for those of you that have been buying steadily for years, how should I regard the approx. $27 spot price? Average, cheap, or too high?

    My plan is just to dollar-cost-average it, like I do with my Roth, buying a couple hundred a month, but it's still helpful to know where we currently stand. Thanks!
     
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  2. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What you are asking is like pissing into the wind. Have a plan that you are comfortable with and stick to it.
     
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  3. Jamie watson

    Jamie watson Active Member

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    Mate just check kitco on a daily basis or when you want to know spot,but remember premiums vary,so get to know your target metals,ie generic or higher premium stuff.cheers mate goodluck
     
  4. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    Anyone telling you where PM price is going is either a dealer or a report pusher.
    TA may work for equities but not for a manipulated GS market.
    Just toss a coin - head buy now, tail buy later. No biggie.
    Stacking should be simple and enjoyable.
     
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  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just set a goal for how much dirty fiat you'd like to exchange for real money or for how many Oz in real money you'd like to have in your hand
    Once you have your goal, don't worry about what the price is. Just buy as close to spot as often as you can afford. Make a regular commitment (once a week, fortnight, month etc.)
     
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  6. Rob Bennett

    Rob Bennett New Member

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    Thank you all for your sage advice. Indeed I do plan to buy at consistent intervals, probably 100 bucks every 2 weeks at least.
     
  7. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If it has a purpleish colour it's likely a current spot, otherwise probably caused by a raisin.
     
  8. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Save(don't piss up against the wall) your bucks and buy bigger lots less often. A 10 oz bar once every 6-8 weeks better value than 2x 1oz coins each fortnight and less postage or pickup costs.
     
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  9. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Definitely agree if you're only buying $100 in fiat value at a time you're pissing away premiums. Save until you can afford a 10oz, kilo bar even better
     
  10. Rob Bennett

    Rob Bennett New Member

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    Hmm, yes I suppose it is smarter to buy less often with larger purchases. I am still thinking like an equities investor, trying to dollar-cost average in regular small amounts. I will think on this.. thanks!

    ...EDIT - So I did the math, and It looks like buying bars works out to be slightly cheaper than coins, but don't the coins sell back for a higher amount than the bars? That's what it looks like on the sites that list buy-back prices. So I can ignore the difference between the premiums on coins vs. bars, since it works on on the back end anyway? (obviously the idea of buying more at once still holds true, regardless)

    Thanks again
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2021
  11. screaming eagle

    screaming eagle Member Silver Stacker

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    Dealers pay bugger all premium on buy-back, often none at all, even on coins. The closer to spot you can buy, the easier it is to not get smashed paying premiums. Build some ounces first, then perhaps branch out into premium items.
     
  12. rainy day

    rainy day Member

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    exactly
     
  13. rainy day

    rainy day Member

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    if you have a pile of cash, get rid of it into silver or some hard asset. Silver was locked at a 16 to 1 ratio, it comes out of the ground at 8 to 1 today. But if you are just buying with disposable weekly income than do that also. I don't think it will go much down but it might, but it could go up also. Wait until the rich people all want their safe full of it, or it becomes a new trend to own silver. I mean don't wait until then, you know what i mean.
     
  14. nicotineandcaffeine

    nicotineandcaffeine Active Member

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    do we need silver anymore for money? it's value from being divisble gold is gone. kind of shocking in 100 years if GSR wasn't 200 or 500, and completely valued on industrial value.
     
  15. Joe King 79

    Joe King 79 Member

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    Go here,

    https://www.usdebtclock.org/

    look at the dollar to silver ratio and realise that yes it is completely undervalued. My 2 cents.
     
  16. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The dollar to silver ratio has very little relevance. If the USD was backed by silver @ 1:1, then yes, I would mean something.

    If anything, it just shows the level of currency creation relative to the annual mine supply. It doesn't mean what many believe it does, because you still have to factor in currency velocity and whether it makes its way into the real economy.
     
  17. Joe King 79

    Joe King 79 Member

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    Okay, one wonders what the true monetary value of silver is then? What would the fiat price actually be if it wasn't undervalued that is? Yes currency creation this last year has been huge but as you correctly point out velocity here is the key to keep from inflation, spinning plates if you will. Will crypto and fed wallets increase velocity?
     
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  18. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

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    To talk about a 'fair' price means that there is also an 'unfair' price.
    The reality is there is just a 'price' and you are buying to sell at a later time at a higher price.
    Sometimes it works....sometimes it doesn't. As for silver, the windows of time for taking profit are short.
    Buy now....sure.....but keep in mind that if you hold for 6 months longer than you should, you will have to wait for many, many years. If you had bought in late 1979 and held it, you would now require silver to reach $200-$300 dollars just to get your purchasing power back ( with no profit).
    I think there will be another parabolic rise sometime in the next 8 years. That is the only reason I am in silver.
     
  19. Joe King 79

    Joe King 79 Member

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    Hi there. Not anywhere did I mention fair price, I did state "fiat price" did you misread this?
    I started stacking in 2016, very slowly as I don't earn that much but I wish I had started in the early 2000 when silver was dirt cheap. Then again would the dollar amount then equate to the dollar amount today?
    Definitely a rise in the next 8 years.
    I understand there is a price and whether its fair or not is irrelevant as you state. I guess I am asking, what is the actual true price of silver? Could you go to the 8:1 ratio out of the ground, would this be a better way to work out silvers actual true value?
     
  20. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's all in the supply and demand of the physical market. The current price point today is slightly inflated above where it's true "value" lies, based upon the cost of production of approx. $15-17 USD per Oz.

    We do have above ground stockpiles of silver. Until those become depleted and we see widening deficits within the physical market, further price increases are likely to be generated from speculation and/or inflation. It doesn't mean we can't see an exponential growth in the silver market as result of increasing investment demand, both for the physical asset and Paper "asset" (ETFs).

    It's a complex market with many variables. The Physical investment side of the market is a seperate market within itself. We saw evidence of that this year with the periodic supply shortages of investment grade Bullion, leading to increased premiums and a wave of FOMO frenzy from retail "investors".

    One thing to keep in mind is the demand for investment grade Bullion prior to 2006 averaged 30Moz. Over the past decade, that has increased to a consistent 200Mozs +. I think 2020 saw record levels of demand @ 300+ Moz's. If the Trend continues, we could eventually see more than half of total mine supply going to the production of coins and bars - leaving a lot less Silver for industry and dwindling stockpiles.

    I think we have about 5-10 years before we see a significant move towards a moonshot. All I know is that silver does pose a great opportunity as a long-term hold. More so than Gold IMO.
     
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