OK the ASX all ords and the asx 200 both have longterm up trends with support here, they also both have a medium term trend (2009 to now) that says there is support at 4500 (in the all ords), I banked on the longer term trend - but it may show in the following week that the medium term trend is stronger (although I still think the longer term uptrend will continue in the last half of the year) Anyone know charts? What do you guys think?
Hi Joshrichy, I have a mate who is a home day trader and he gave me some interesting facts the other day, every time the share market has lost 2% or more (16 times in the past) in the life of the Aust market the next day the market has apparently risen again, but last week for the first time ever it diddnt correct. He believes that it has put itself now at least for the short term into a downward trend which will be hard to break. In saying this my mate is buying up still in the hope that not too many more records will be broken in the wrong direction. A bit like silver, buy when its going down and sell when its up, although it seems most silver stackers buy when its going down and hold when its going up In saying this im no expert and am only repeating what my mate has said, he too was feeling sick. Regards Mattlyndy
Josh in the long term price follows value. If you in it for the medium to long term I would argue throw out the charts and instead analyze the fundamentals. Also most investors buy individual stocks not index funds hence the return of the all ordinaries isn't necessarily going to be the return you receive as an investor. I would argue the intrinsic value of the all ordinaries is around 1.25 - 1.5 times current book value. I can go into the mathematics of that if anyone is interested. Has anyone got a current book value figure for the all ordinaries, the commsec one is all over the place and is not accurate.
