My experience tells me that the more people feel disappointment on silver the better is time to buy it. P.S. It also strange to see the rise of price of gold from 200 USD to 2000 USD with no "shortage" of this metal and hear such illogical opinions about future silver price.
That's also what I was thinking. I am waiting for more people with a long face before buying it. No, what is strange is that the price fell from 2000 to 1300. Of course shortage of everything is always relative. There is relative shortage of water, housing, hot women, silver and gold
How should I interprete this question? A pic of my stack? ETF stock holdings? Exchange stock holdings? It's abit unclear what you ask here.
That's very true. But I don't see enough disappointment yet. And the futures hedge was still too big to exclude a lower on the short term. This evening will show a new figure. It will give another clue. The words "shortage" and "surplus" are irrelevant, because the price brings demand and supply, regardless direction, together. If there is a shortage then people will produce more / sell from existing stocks, to undo it. If there is a surplus then people will produce less / add to existing stocks, to undo it. A focus, the single most dangerous thing in "investment". There is a money for nothing clubbers wisdom: "sniff around for small losses while they are still small". The smarter sold in 2011. To then wait for the dumbest. That's what price cycles, being error cycles, causes. Since 2011, the price was mostly kept up by the temporary buyers that the futures market hedge against. The very reason for the hedge in the first place. They can be wrong, but they usually (just look at their track record) aren't. And it worked, I also kept buying at $30, then $27 then $22. And $19 can be another such case. Time will tell. Alot entered the silver market being inflicted less ounces. Alot get out too late and get inflicted less dollars too. Relative to the decades mean trend. Cascading bad decisions is worser than a first bad decision. If that applies to today too I don't know. What I do know is that there is no hurry to buy silver because of the existing stockpiles. Give it a decade, pick out the (further) bottoms too. See where you end up, on average, within your saving>spending time horizon. This was Pirocco from the SS Hated Department :/
The guy in the video makes some good points, even if those of us who came in at $30 wd rather not acknowledge them.
Now, now Pirocco....that is a bit harsh....."To then wait for the dumbest" I think it would be more correct to refer to such people as "The wrongly guided"......for some it is not their fault that they got caught up in nonsense when so many so called experts sprout it on a daily basis.
Yes it's harsh, but I declared myself also dumb for paying $32 an ounce in 2011 despite others even paid $40 and even $49 then, and yet others also bought above $30 for several years. My guidance wasn't even silver doctors / dealers / etc, but the Federal Reserve, that succeeded in making me believe that all the new dollars would be spent as they came. I could blame the Federal Reserve here, but actually the only one to blame is Me, for first hesitating too long, then hurrying too fast, to only afterwards starting taking more into account than just that monetary base. I should have done that homework before, not after. I could stick less harsh words on it. But sometimes the harsh is remembered best. Helped with me. Why wouldn't it help others too? As of since, I learnt to have patience, and to use the data that is out there, in the degree I'm able too. Abit post mortem but it's better moving towards green than just keep sitting there like the duck to be shot a next time.
So you want to take it. Okay... I can look up the addresses of the depositories and pass them to you under the table but after that you're on your own.
He's a kook, but he makes some good points. Edit: I'll leave you to decide about to whom I am referring!
Hang on, what do you mean silver is in surplus, ive seen the supply and demand for the last decade and out of 10 years, 8 of those have been higher demands then supply.
I reckon..what fucken stockpile? we had like 10 billion ounces back in the 70-80s and now we have none.. doesnt that tell you something? I mean sure people are not buying silver but what about industrial usage?
Btw, do you have data for the 70-80's about that? I've some, but not enough to attempt general conclusions. Yes, what about industrial usage? Industrial usage didn't drive the price the last decade. It does play a role, and also an important one, but it's a gradual chipping role, and as the price trend proved: on the decade term it's far superceeded by what DID drive the price. About my plan? "wait til silver hit's $40+ mark and sell?" No. I wait for market situations that indicate a shorter term bottom price, that are also reasonable on the longer term. To then swap the fiatsavings accumulated into another chunk silver. My later selling probably won't be much different. Probably, because I don't know what the future can bring me.
There was a 260 million ounce demand back in 2013. U.S mint was sold out on silver eagels 2005 china used a million on solar panels and in 2013 they used 35million If the industrial usage did not drive the price then I have no idea what did.. because it is not people like you and me that drove that price.. "ohhh it's all about supply and demand" yet what we pull out from the ground is not enough for the world...
Data proves that it wasn't industrial demand. Data proves that it was coin & bar sales. On top of this, remember when ETF's came into existence? I don't know if those are people like you and me. But they are people, that bought. Some ceased to buy more, and the annual demand they caused disappeared. Mines / recyclers kept on producing, until 2013, where recycling dropped quite big. See, in order to draw conclusions about the price, one should take ALL that affects the price into account. Not just this and that. If we would look at just the mining of 2012 versus the mining of 2013, we could claim that silver production increased. Now add recycling to it, and it jumps in the other direction much more. Gradually add further things, and gradually you find explanations. There is another recent topic here, where I posted an analysis of 2012-2013, for the gold market. Initially, I arrived on a 50% error. Precisely. That was so weird that I could only have missed something. And indeed, I had forgotten that the spot price includes the futures market hedge. I took then all the COT reports of 2012 and 2013, and calculated the averages of these years. Guess what: it was near exactly the missing 50% And if you think about it, that's just normal, because a futures hedge is ment against speculators; and all the trader classes combined, should hedge as much ounces as the stockpile change of the speculators. Every 5000 ounces more bought/sold in the cash market, causes the creation of a futures contract, causing the cash price is not being driven up according to 5000, but according to 10000 ounces. This all of course isn't directly / instantly, but take the year averages and it becomes telltaling clear. Any gaps between both, means some trading occurred 'under the radar', being entities exempted from reporting duties, alike institutionals on black pools, or maybe some inbetween top level nodes trades, enjoying the same privileges. For ex, the 2012-2013 for the silver market had a gap of 200 Moz. 200 Moz more sold than the price change explained. Taking ALL into effect. You can list a dozen items that should push the silver price up, if there is 1 or any other number other items, with the opposite effect, everything expressed in ounces, then that side will end up as 'winner' as most influential side.
