Posted by Martin Armstrong on the 1st of this month. "We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter. The 2014 Metals Report will be out shortly with the long-term forecasts." Interesting week ahead for people with large trucks.
Considering central banks are since some years sustaining golds price trend, I'd rather opt for a large silver truck.
Has anyone ever been able to predict future prices reliably with a track record beyond what could simply be attributed to random chance? Seems some people get lucky and that is all.
If you can post the mathmatical odds on my significant numbers holding 100% accuracy that would be great Although debating chance and predictions seems to hamper some people's beliefs which in turn seems to generate more trolling than constructive debate. http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-47523-gold-prediction-to-top-all-othersto-the-dollar.html Enjoy
Ok, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. According to your sig (interpreting it is a bit like analysing a Nostradamus quatrain), your next prediction is that gold might or might not go lower over some indefinite, but the implication is a short, time period, but that a major upward price move is imminent (weeks? months?) so you will buy hard when the price is "good". Is that a correct interpretation?
One step at a time please.... Show me the correct odds on my 100% significant numbers first. Keep in mind I have NOTHING further to prove.
Fitting theories and trend lines to historic charts is easy. Forecasting is no more than an intelligent guess using algorithms - see weather predictions.. Anyone who can accurately forecast, retired with billions in their bank account many years ago.
That kind of sounds like your saying anyone who is going to be sucessful was sucessful years ago. As we all know this is not the case in a ever changing world. Money is not my main focus....spiritual health is. However being a billionare I might tolerate oneday
Not at all - if you can accurately forecast stuff ( up or down ) and be consistently right ( on the roulette table of investments ) then you cannot loose so bet big and watch your rewards pile in. Billions await the reliable forecaster now and in the future.
Yes the people that have the power to write the rules They make a prediction then make it happen. Other then that, no. The rest claim to get it 100% right 50% of the time
You don't even need to be consistently right, although it helps. You must, however, have a strategy with demonstrable positive expectancy. Without this, you have lost money before you have even started.
Meanwhile, PM experts claim to have it 100% right 100% of the time, they just regard price or timeframe as irrelevant.
Meanwhile Stock market analysts, Talking Heads and other paper pushers claim to have it 100% right 100% of the time..... I smell a little fear in the air dont you ?
Gold is going sideways for at least 12 months.......Bloody Obama went and borrowed even more fiat $.....Crazy times ahead!
Yes I have noticed how life throws us all curve balls so imo just when I think I'm right ( like now ) I could well end up being wrong. But that's life and you have to be just keep trying and learning.
Has anyone with a vested interest ever predicted a future price that goes in the direction that doesn't benefit him? Chance isn't even involved then.
A while ago, start 2014, http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-47683-my-outlandish-probably-wrong-prediction-page-2.html post #33 I calculated the rate at which the gold ETF stocks dropped, and at that rate, they would have reached zero somewhere mid 2016. Just after that post, the gold stocks reached a bottom, to then trend upwards again for about 2 months. Since mid march, it's again dropping and we are again closing in on that bottom. So actually, things didnt change much, only that that mid 2016 now became 3 months later, so sideways (temp up/downspikes are ignorable) until after the 2016 holidays. It's quite funny how similar the rates of SPDR and Ishares ETF's are. It's like the same hands are active on both.