Gold Turning down

Discussion in 'Gold' started by The Road Home, Apr 3, 2014.

  1. The Road Home

    The Road Home Member

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    Posted by Martin Armstrong on the 1st of this month.

    "We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter. The 2014 Metals Report will be out shortly with the long-term forecasts."

    Interesting week ahead for people with large trucks. :)
     
  2. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Considering central banks are since some years sustaining golds price trend, I'd rather opt for a large silver truck. :)
     
  3. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Has anyone ever been able to predict future prices reliably with a track record beyond what could simply be attributed to random chance? Seems some people get lucky and that is all.
     
  4. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    If you can post the mathmatical odds on my significant numbers holding 100% accuracy that would be great :)

    Although debating chance and predictions seems to hamper some people's beliefs which in turn seems to generate more trolling than constructive debate. :rolleyes:

    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-47523-gold-prediction-to-top-all-othersto-the-dollar.html

    Enjoy
     
  5. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. According to your sig (interpreting it is a bit like analysing a Nostradamus quatrain), your next prediction is that gold might or might not go lower over some indefinite, but the implication is a short, time period, but that a major upward price move is imminent (weeks? months?) so you will buy hard when the price is "good". Is that a correct interpretation?
     
  6. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    One step at a time please....

    Show me the correct odds on my 100% significant numbers first.


    Keep in mind I have NOTHING further to prove.
     
  7. Photonaware

    Photonaware New Member

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    Fitting theories and trend lines to historic charts is easy.
    Forecasting is no more than an intelligent guess using algorithms - see weather predictions..
    Anyone who can accurately forecast, retired with billions in their bank account many years ago.
     
  8. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    That kind of sounds like your saying anyone who is going to be sucessful was sucessful years ago. As we all know this is not the case in a ever changing world.

    Money is not my main focus....spiritual health is.

    However being a billionare I might tolerate oneday :p
     
  9. Photonaware

    Photonaware New Member

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    Not at all - if you can accurately forecast stuff ( up or down ) and be consistently right ( on the roulette table of investments ) then you cannot loose so bet big and watch your rewards pile in.
    Billions await the reliable forecaster now and in the future.
     
  10. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes the people that have the power to write the rules ;) They make a prediction then make it happen. Other then that, no. The rest claim to get it 100% right 50% of the time :D
     
  11. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You don't even need to be consistently right, although it helps.
    You must, however, have a strategy with demonstrable positive expectancy. Without this, you have lost money before you have even started.
     
  12. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Meanwhile, PM experts claim to have it 100% right 100% of the time, they just regard price or timeframe as irrelevant.
     
  13. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Meanwhile Stock market analysts, Talking Heads and other paper pushers claim to have it 100% right 100% of the time.....
    I smell a little fear in the air dont you ?
     
  14. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Gold is going sideways for at least 12 months.......Bloody Obama went and borrowed even more fiat $.....Crazy times ahead!
     
  15. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No. Not at all.
    :|
     
  16. menotcrimex

    menotcrimex Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes I have noticed how life throws us all curve balls so imo just when I think I'm right ( like now ) I could well end up being wrong.

    But that's life and you have to be just keep trying and learning.
     
  17. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    But aren't you right all the time?
     
  18. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Lol! Yes he THINKS he is right 100% of the time......That doese'nt necasarrily mean he is lol???
     
  19. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Has anyone with a vested interest ever predicted a future price that goes in the direction that doesn't benefit him? Chance isn't even involved then. :D
     
  20. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    A while ago, start 2014, http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-47683-my-outlandish-probably-wrong-prediction-page-2.html post #33 I calculated the rate at which the gold ETF stocks dropped, and at that rate, they would have reached zero somewhere mid 2016.
    Just after that post, the gold stocks reached a bottom, to then trend upwards again for about 2 months. Since mid march, it's again dropping and we are again closing in on that bottom.
    So actually, things didnt change much, only that that mid 2016 now became 3 months later, so sideways (temp up/downspikes are ignorable) until after the 2016 holidays.
    It's quite funny how similar the rates of SPDR and Ishares ETF's are. It's like the same hands are active on both.
     

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