But an increase in the debt ceiling is more inflation through debt.. this is the very thing us Austrians are looking for as an indicator that gold and silver will again spike on news of inflation (increase in money supply). Not sure why more debt is a BAD sign for commodities.. isnt that more fiat chasing finite items increasing the price per unit? or are we talking about something other than demand supply fundamentals and basic monetary and economic laws. 1for1
Problem is you are thinking logically in an irrational market More debt and printing means there will be more money provided by the us govt to banks The money never makes it to the real economy - it gets used by the banks and hedge funds to speculate in paper markets - stocks go up The real economy is leveraged to it's eyeballs so cannot take on more debt - so the real economy is falling and there will be less demand for stuff, so commodities go down The bizarre game will continue until the govt stops printing money and borrowing a trillion a year Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows
I try to ignore the short term noise and play according to fundamentals.. eventually these always payout .. i cant predict short term because as you say its not based on logic or common sense. Inflation is inflation in the long-term.. the velocity of the supply is really a Keynesian principle as they use it to show how demand drives economics (this is a fallacy of course!) In order for gold and silver to increase we are relying on irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy and a continuation of inflation through debt and governments not spending within there budget.. the market is manipulated in all facets but this does not change fundamentals. Precious metals will cease to be a sound investment vessel when governments practice sound monetary policy and when government cease to distort interest rates and mal-invest, when these are left to the free market to decide price equilibriums this is a sign to me that its time to get out of metals and to start investing in economies.
Its really lifting off this morning @2am up $25 within 30 minutes......somethings going on? Damn it i have to go to bed now i'll miss all the action!
lol - mate: let the gold do its thing, it's not because you watch it all day that it makes any sort of difference! Check it once a day if you are addicted, once a week if you understand this is a long term play, once a month if you are busy making the most out of your time.
Ye I know mate it was very late! I have to say i am very suprised that since the debt ceiling debacle we hav'nt seen an influx of new buyers rushing to pm's as a safe haven....... yet......Is it because everyone is dumb, or because they believe the USG will just keep borrowing to infinity and beyond.....I believe the latter is what is really happening. p.s This aint gunna end pretty!
I received an email from Aust. Bullion Company today. They have dropped 1kg physical bullion prices down to almost the same price as unallocated silver. If this rush existed then I doubt that the bullion company would take such action. It must be an oversupply issue
I have nothing to support my opinion but hearsay and gossip... the lack of interest in gold and silver is telling me that folks no longer consider them important to the future... you may find some clues if you look at prices of durable goods and services... demand is outstripping supply as folks are buying up real goods and services to survive and thrive through a crisis... I am not at all surprised at the low prices of gold or silver and will not be surprised if they continue to drop. I have slowed my accumulation of gold and silver drastically and have diverted most of my capital into durable goods and services and will continue to do for near future... especially hard, productive assets. It is pretty obvious when look closely without prejudice or bias.
Manufactured products that require the support of mass production and for no better term, high civilisation, meaning high-technology, global transport networks, extensive certification. Such things like rubber products, adhesives, coatings, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, propellants, refined alloys, batteries, tooling, etc and etc. Think about the things that you use everyday that require large scale manufacturing to produce... gold and silver is not on that list.
Is there a shelf life on a lot of that stuff? Will it still be usable in 10 years? (obviously the tooling will be but I am thinking of the pesticides, adhesives etc)
Ye i think i'll wait a few months and see how Jan 2014 goes plus Janet Allen will announce further QE probably the way the job stats are lately over there.... Mind you Peter Schiff made this announce ment yesterday.....'Why the Gold surge is just starting'? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIQnjuriTWw&feature=c4-overview&list=UUIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ
Of course there is, but by stock rotation you can always have a substantial supply on hand that will see you through for 2 years or more. A 10 year supply would be difficult to manage and store... while there could be a 10 year crisis... most foreseeable events would be 24 - 36 months before infrastructure would be back in place to manufacture and produce many of these products, if not, then I sincerely doubt you or anyone else would have a need for them. The moral of the story is that gold and silver are naturally occurring elements that require little or no refining to be considered of value. Within 2 hours of where I live, there plenty of places where one can find gold nuggets if you were so inclined and plenty of folks do so as a hobby. But I challenge you to find a bar of A2 tool steel, a tub of marine grade epoxy, pile of new tires or inner-tubes, a tin of catalyzed varnish, or even a can of fly spray as naturally occurring elements to be found by digging around or dredging a creek bottom.
All I can suggest to you The End is anytime you read an article from a well known source, Schiff etc, look for some of their previous writings before significant price movements......a good time would be when gold was heading towards the $2000 mark and you will see how good an analyst they really are. Unfortunately a lot of them are so fixated on gold, bullion banks, manipulation, paper substitutes etc....that they fail to notice that the road to $5000 gold is not straight.....in fact part of it is not even on the map so you must prepare yourself occasionally that a bridge has been washed away etc......I know it is a shitty analogy but I just woke up so that is all I can manage. Maybe he is right of course.....this is why you need to shop around for ideas and look at things from different perspectives.......there are better analysts out there. You just have to find them. Their previous reports are the obvious place to start. I used to follow Maund for a long time but there came a patch where he called a bottom a few times which was way wrong.....now I am not so sure on him.....it happens of course...
Ye i been watching Gregory mannarino because he dos daily posts on Youtube....But last night i was reading a few comments and one said straight out that Mannarino is always wrong...... That really made me think twice because I thought he was really on the ball..... I'm just sitting back waiting for now i've already been burned earlier in the year.......I am being VERY cautious and am even possibly waiting for Jim Rogers $900-$1000 possible predictions????? Realistically is would be smart to buy some now and then wait six months and buy some more at $1000 if that happens.....I dont know???/
I too am waiting for gold to approach this zone but here is the problem..... Once gold hits around $1130 mark, then it becomes a real gamble......will it drop to the $1000.....or will it finally bottom at around the mid $900 mark? This is nearly a $200 decline which is going to make a big difference for gold stocks, which is what I hope to buy, so in the end I will probably pick a mid-point and stick with that. If it does hit these levels, there will be zero confidence in the gold markets so it will not be easy to make a purchase when everything you read will be negative.....mining stocks going broke etc.....
BTW The End, while we are on the subject of becoming fixated.....I notice that you are very concerned about the u.s. debt ceiling..... Don't forget that the problems in Europe are multiple times worse than the debt ceiling issue....just because it is not in the press doesn't mean it is not there....the MSM are purely reactionary....they will never, ever, ever be of any use when it comes to making decisions on finance or gauging markets or providing direction in any matter.....these people that write the articles either have no or very little experience in finance or they drink from the same water as the ones making the shitty decisions. Europe will eventually look upon the u.s. as being fortunate to be able to print money because they are broke, the banks are broke and they are holding worthless bonds of broke countries as capital.. One of the best bank analysts I have come across is Reggie Middleton....Boom Bust Blog....outstanding....over the last 6 years he has picked them all....Lehmans etc....not from guesswork but through deep analysis of the banks financially statements and looking globally at what is happening, not just in the U.S., ...in fact 6 months before the truth came out he had already worked out those in charge of the Irish banks that had been propped up had being lying through their teeth....and what do we find now.....they lied. Look through his historical writings and you will see that the European banks and southern European countries are stuffed with a capital S.......and the amount of capital required to keep them floating is mind boggling..this will be the death of the Euro... The Euro will bust before the U.S. dollar............. my point is don't fixate on the u.s. not yet anyway......and pay no attention to MSM.
