You said it could never happen and it already has happened. Now you are arguing that it was not a cyclical event. No one was trying to corner the gold market. The examples below show oil, but many commodities have run up over 750% in a bull market cycle. http://chartsbin.com/view/oau http://www.forecast-chart.com/chart-crude-oil.html
It hasn't come close in the past under normal market condition, which is what he is saying. Gold is inherently tied to silver and visa versa. Gold went up because silver was going nuts. Sure an event could cause 10k gold, but not in cyclical movements.
You are defining normal market conditions differently than the rest of the world. Gold was money for thousands of years and had no ability to rise. Gold didn't go up because silver was going up. You have no understanding of the size of the two markets. I showed you that other commodities have risen 750% in a bull market cycle. You apparently can't admit you are wrong, so there is no point in further communication.
How do you explain the 850USD record gold high in 1980 while silver was being cornered? Followed by the immediate gold drop off after the silver cornering failed. The whole basis of your original statement is the evidence backing up mine. When you get two guys out-buying production for years, then this is not normal market conditions. As it's an explainable once off event that happened which effected the PM markets greatly. Gold will naturally tail a sibling market because they are inherently tied together through investing. When one PM market moves away from the others, many investors will naturally move money to another PM, creating an inter-market price connection. Am I not explaining my argument with logic and reason? Could you do the same please? Tell me how 1980 was normal market conditions, in your own words.
Be careful what you wish for! Although I can imagine you'd like to rejoice for profits... Consider the social implications, the financial crisis that could happen in such a situation.
Gold may not wait until August :| It can spike in July, so I'd recommend not to drag on further than June is you really want to get in.
Buying production for years? Where did you read that? From what I've read, their max amount was abit over 200 Moz, with halve of that as Comex futures contracts so no silver actually in their possession. 1 year supply then was double that. So their physical possession, was just a quarter of 1 year supply. Did you narrow it down to US silver production or so?
But you were insured against catastrophic world events In the meantime. So your house didn't burn down last year, are you sorry you lost the money you paid for insurance?
Just noticed this thread again. You are explaining your argument by taking a small part of the puzzle and basing the whole on that one piece ala one of the blind men examining an elephant. Maybe you are too young, but the 1970s was a time of very high inflation in the US. 1979 was a particularly bad year with the Iranian Revolution and the 2nd oil crisis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis Almost everything was going up in nominal value, not just gold and silver. Click on the copper chart. Notice that copper made a secondary peak the same time as gold and silver and then corrected 75%. Oil peaked about the same time too. Volcker's anti inflationary policies kicked in and down went commodities. http://www.patternstocks.com/copper-long-term-charts/ Here is an article by Zeall. Notice this quote that gold drives silver, not silver drives gold. Of course, he only has decades of experience. So please write to him and tell him he is wrong because you think so. http://www.zealllc.com/2014/godrivsi.htm "The more years you spend trading precious metals, the more self-evident this truth becomes. Gold drives silver, full stop. After my 14 years of closely watching gold and silver price action in real-time all day every day, I simply take this ironclad relationship for granted. I can scarcely even write about silver without mentioning it in passing. Gold drives silver is a core trading axiom much like buy low sell high." Since you change your argument every time I prove you wrong, I should have read all of my last post noticed that replying to you is a waste of time. Argue with yourself.
average prices = accurate reflection of purchased ounces YEAR SILVER GOLD GSR 1970 1.635 35.94 21.98 1971 1.394 40.80 29.27 1972 1.976 58.16 29.43 1973 3.137 97.32 31.02 1974 4.391 159.26 36.27 <- peak silver 1975 4.085 161.02 39.42 <- peak gold 1976 4.347 124.84 28.72 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold 1977 4.706 147.71 31.39 1978 5.930 193.22 32.58 1979 21.793 306.68 14.07 <- peak silver 1980 16.393 612.56 37.37 <- peak gold 1981 8.432 460.03 54.56 1982 10.586 375.67 35.49 <- peak silver 1983 9.121 424.35 46.52 <- peak gold 1984 6.694 360.48 53.85 1985 5.888 317.26 53.88 1986 5.364 367.66 68.54 1987 6.790 446.46 65.75 <- peak silver AND peak gold 1988 6.108 436.94 71.54 1989 5.543 381.44 68.81 1990 4.068 383.51 94.27 1991 3.909 362.11 92.63 1992 3.710 343.82 92.67 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold 1993 4.968 359.77 72.42 1994 4.769 384.00 80.52 1995 5.148 384.17 74.63 <- peak silver 1996 4.730 387.77 81.98 <- peak gold 1997 5.945 330.98 55.67 1998 5.549 294.24 53.03 1999 5.218 278.88 53.45 2000 4.9506 279.11 56.38 2001 4.3702 271.04 62.02 <- bottom silver AND bottom gold 2002 4.5995 309.73 67.34 2003 4.8758 363.38 74.53 2004 6.6711 409.72 61.42 2005 7.3164 444.74 60.79 2006 11.5452 603.46 52.27 2007 13.3836 695.39 51.96 2008 14.9891 871.96 58.17 2009 14.6733 972.35 66.27 2010 20.1928 1224.53 60.64 2011 35.1192 1571.52 44.75 <- peak silver 2012 31.1497 1668.98 53.58 <- peak gold 2013 23.7928 1411.23 59.31 2014 20.3715 1294.64 63.55 Who would here performing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie ? Kitco / LBMA? Adam Hamilton? If it's the latter, then that "14 years of closely watching gold and silver price action in real-time all day every day" must have been fun while reading like the chinese right to left, especially in the weekend.
I don't think it'll spike like that... gosh, not in 2014. Unless the "big crash" happens. I think guys who appear on interview making mind-blowing mega predictions have a terribly hard time getting back the next time - and still being taken seriously. Giving exact figures to predictions is very risky. Could potentially ruin your career if you keep repeating over and over again... "Gold will hit 2,000 $, ...3000 $, ...3,500 $, ...gold has to go to 10,000 $ to keep the pace with inflation" "By the end of 2011, it'll be 2,000 $... in summer 2012! In 2013! Right after the crash in late 2014 in will recover and spike to 2,000 $!" Again and again and again... ambitious predictions. "And this time it will happen!" - they say... 10,000 $ by Christmas, Merry Christmas! Gosh, I admire the guts that these guys have - appearing in front of the cameras making risky predictions... (Although, some of them make really good points - just that giving exact price figures for short periods of time is very risky)
Gold and silver prices go where other prices go, any differences are just temporary stories caused by A frontrunning B, B paying too much, A taking advantage of it. Some of those temporary stories do span decades though. Our good 'ol politicians nor their predecessors were / are stupid. I think the best answer on these forecasts is this one: take a mirror, and ask yourself if you would be willing to pay that forecasted price. If your answer is no, then don't expect a yes from others.
Suppose it does? Then what? Don't forget what that $1900 was. A peanut in time. How you know? Look at annual averages. Those tell you what price is sustained. 2001 271.04 2002 309.73 2003 363.38 2004 409.72 2005 444.74 2006 603.46 2007 695.39 2008 871.96 2009 972.35 2010 1224.53 2011 1571.52 2012 1668.98 2013 1411.23 2014 1294.22 $1670 was the 2012 sustained price. It was a single year. 2011 was $100 lower. Also a single year. 2013 was another $100 lower. Also a single year. 2014 is another $100 lower (so far). That's $1900 is as meaningless as that $50 was for silver. Although, both had abit more time-substance than around 1980. Because the average prices there were these: year / silver / gold 1977 4.706 147.71 1978 5.930 193.22 1979 21.793 306.68 1980 16.393 612.56 1981 8.432 460.03 1982 10.586 375.67 For ex, notice how 1980, the FAMOUS $50 SILVER year, had a measly average of $16. 2011's FAMOUS $50 SILVER average, was $35. And the same applies to the decades averages. The 2001-2011 average was double the average of the 1971-1981 average. So why then focus on peak prices? If it's to quickly dump to then forget about peak prices, there is something important to realize: only a certain amount ounces can be sold within a price dollar. It's impossible that everybody can sell at $1900 gold. Only a small part can, and by doing so, will drive the price down, where a next part has to start from. And so on. Peak prices are totally useless for stackers. The money for nothing club pump and dumpsters can of course try, with the last ones paying the profit of the first ones. As a stacker, it's better to stay far away when they show up in numbers.
What is required is massive appetite for PM's, major currency value and trust loss, so that PM prices can go up. Right now the US is benefiting from the EU-Russia tensions and the dollar is gaining strength.
