I believe it was in all the stuff he made available after he got out of jail, but before his subscription service started. Any link would be on my old computer and I am successfully avoiding hooking that monstrosity back up. He had charts and everything. I may have to access my old computer before the end of the month to get some old client payroll data. If I do, I will find and post the link.
The problem with being early is that you establish in your mind a fixed point at which to compare the current market. One of the psychological reason that 'the trend is your friend' is that people tend to justify via circular reasoning. Why is gold going down? Because Gold is on a downtrend The reason gold is going down is because the demand has come off while supply has remained the same. Plain and simple. Why has demand come off? Because people or institutions seeking a year on year return yield are elsewhere. When are people who are seeking a positive return going to come back? When the price of the commodity is significantly cheaper than it costs to produce it, and the demand is larger than the supply. When is the price of the commodity going to be significantly under the cost of production? When the cost of production has bottomed. When will cost of production bottom? When deflation or disinflation has turned clearly to inflation. its more complex than just a monthly chart with a few indicators. The chartists suffer a logical fallacy - with this therefore because of this (ad hoc ergo propter hoc). The charts work, because enough people think the charts work and so trade on it. This gives rise to the FACT that gold futures should not be part of the metals market - gold should trade like Iron ore (no futures). Think about - why the heel does gold need a futures market?? WHO USES IT UP - nobody! I can understand futures markets in, every soft commodity, I can even understand it in the industrial metals. But I cant understand it in Gold. Yet there it is - a futures market. The only reason I can think of that a futures market exists in Gold is because currency is also a commodity rising and falling on supply demand - so if Gold is really a dead relic and not a currency - get rid of the gold futures exchange!
^^ Thankyou for some sensible, logical understanding of markets. ^^^ Bollocks. ^^^ Back on track again.
Yeah, suggesting doubt on the spiritual priesthood of chartism never goes down well here It works, so I use it - but I dont believe the mystical nature of it. Now give obeisance to the third fibanacci retracement level and offer up a reverse hammer candlestick and dogi to the Long-god
Nothing mystical about it at all. In fact, it is a very logical and explainable way of deciphering market dynamics. I could have a go at an explanation, but it would be long-winded, and probably a waste of time here. I have offered to explain here in the past, but nobody was interested (I'm OK with that).... better for the cynics to bury their heads in the sand and laugh about how "lucky" the T/A traders are.
Thanks BB. What I referred to is on page 13 per pdf page numbering or page 11 per the report page numbering.
I had completely forgotten about this, I remember reading it back when. I might even have a copy. I can see why certain people might feel otherwise. Anyway, in the end you find someone who makes the most sense with the best or consistent results and for me he works regards Gold. He was the only one speaking against hyperinflation when virtually everyone else guaranteed it. I merely offer Armstrong as another potential source of info to better guide the Gold traveler through the dark forest of investment.
He was correct about the possibility of a short term bullish after 2010 if the exchange rate was above 98 which it was and the bull run did continue. It hit approx. 110 He also emphasised the importance of the dollar breaching 116, which it never did, for the breakout to really occur. As he has often said, reversals are to be expected where the time for a future high actually becomes a the future low. The u.s. dollar is soon to embark on the mother of all rallies and it will be most likely that the high in 2016 for the aussie may in fact be the time for the low. This rally in the u.s. dollar could easily run for a few years. The aussie dollar to at least $1.50 is going to happen once faith is pulled from the u.s. dollar but understand that the u.s. dollar will be the last to fall.
And if you want more charts: http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/THE-ROSEN-MARKET-TIMING-LETTER-011014.pdf
Sorry, but it still appears to me he was wrong on all but the above 98 claim. The rest of it is a serious of numbers that may or may not mean anything. He mentions the $2 multiple times including in the second paragraph where he states that the AUD looks like it will rally to test $2. My main gripe against MA is the 8.6 year cycle con job he keeps spinning. If you pay attention to his backtesting on the 8.6 year cycle, you will notice that many of them are tied to events that don't have specific dates. After reading some of those predictions and going huh, I stopped reading his articles. Considering all the events that happen around the world every day, it isn't that hard to find two historical events to tie together using almost any time cycle. There are many who argued against hyperinflation, but I don't think it really matters. I have read that hyperinflations start within depressions. Either way the economy sucks and gold will help. If someone can take short term advice from any of the prognosticators and make money, good for them. But for me, most of these guys are time wasting salesmen. Remember Celente's guns, gold and a getaway plan? Now he is buying property in Boston.
Armstrong doesn't predict anything..............he simply points to the strengths and weaknesses in a trend and defines the key criteria for rallies/pullbacks to continue or break. His understanding of capital flows and the way markets can move contrary to popular fundamentals is second to none. He was one of very few dismissing the u.s. dollar to zero call over a year ago........now, a few others have accepted that the u.s. dollar is far from done. He was one of the few to show how capital flows would move the markets, regardless of fundamentals, to all time highs while most others were calling for the big collapse.....it is not here yet and it won't be here for a long time. I have certainly been spared significant losses following his reports. He is still saying gold will have its day in the sun but all indicators do not say it will be just yet.
The Road Home: when you say "it ain't over until the fat lady sings" might actually make sense - Angela Merkel? If she "starts singing", something will happen to the euro, then gold will start moving even more. Up or down? Anyway: prolly that that 875 $ support will be hit, the way things look out... and all that tapering and even China buying a bit less now...
Won't comment about Armstrong as haven't really read much of him but he definitely was not the only one speaking against hyperinflation. I've been reading itulip.com for years and the site became active again well before the GFC and warned about a lot of stuff that transpired. Although EJ argued deflation is impossible with a fiat based system, he also always argued there would be no hyperinflation in the world reserve currency. High inflation possible, yes, but definitely not hyperinflation.
You stated MA doesn't predict anything and then you posted a MA prediction. Just out of curiosity, was the second prediction his or yours? We have differing definitions of predicting. The only people saying the dollar would go to zero were the hyperinflationist and those are a very small minority of the people who sell their services regarding pm prices. There may be a higher percentile in the fringe internet bloggers, but I don't follow them. Even writers like Sinclair were only predicting a lower USD. So far, neither side has been proven right or wrong. When/if things hit the fan, I expect an initial surge into the USD & US Bonds out of habit. That will likely be the time to exit the USD. Fracking is transforming the US economy and none of the economists, chartist or anyone else saw that coming. Without fracking, the USD would indeed have been lower. Thank goodness that the need for jobs and energy won out over the environmental extremists. While I am an environmentalist, I see the necessity of more development than I personally prefer. Whenever an environmentalist protests about drilling, fracking, etc., I always ask them if they drove to the protest location. Funny thing is that always say yes. Want to be a true environmentalist, walk or ride a bicycle. Regarding capital flows, of course they move markets. Below is the definition of capital flows as I understand it. This type of capital flows is mentioned quite often, but they usually don't use the term capital flows. Maybe MA has created his own type of capital flows. "Investopedia explains 'Capital Flows' Capital flows are aggregated by the U.S. government and other organizations for the purpose of analysis, regulation and legislative efforts. Different sets of capital flows that are often studied include the following: Asset-class movements measured as capital flows between cash, stocks, bonds, etc. Venture capital investments in startup businesses Mutual fund flows net cash additions or withdrawals from broad classes of funds Capital-spending budgets examined at corporations as a sign of growth plans Federal budget government spending plans Capital flows can help to show the relative strength or weakness of capital markets, especially in contained environments like the stock market or the federal budget. Investors also look at the growth rate of certain capital flows, like venture capital and capital spending, to find any trends that might indicate future investment opportunities or risks."
M.A. also recognized a long time ago the impact of the fracking and the shale oil boom in the u.s. and the benefits it would bring. The capital flows that he talks about are the ones fleeing the riskiest assets...ie sovereign bonds. don't forget bond markets are something like 10 times the size of world stockmarkets and when the capital starts moving, it is looking for a home that can pay a return. as for the u.s. dollar, it will be the only currency to go to for Europeans if they bring in their plan to hit savers for bank losses. Lack of faith in the currency will benefit the u.s dollar. On top of that, an awful lot of debt around the world was taken in u.s. dollars due to low interest rates. Any movement up in the dollar will create an enormous amount of short covering. Then you will really see the dollar soar. The flows are not from within the u.s.. As he explains, the movement of capital is into private hands, not government. The u.s. bonds will be moving down bigtime and interest rates are going to rise. This is because you have a government that can't control its spending and the I.O.U.'s its writing are going to be marked down to what they should be worth.
I think he's saying that the fulcrum point has been hit and the see-saw effect that Maloney talks of, has started. ie stocks topped, gold bottomed and now it's reversing.
I reckon it is all about the 'head and shoulders' meets the 'left elbow', or was that the 'right knee'! says the expert chartist. OC
