Discussion in 'Platinum' started by trew, Jun 4, 2013.
Technical view by Peter Brandt Mar 11, 2014
Palladium: A New Bull Market
Lol @ the suckers that sold at $100 and bought at $1000
$5 <-> $50 silver is quite similar to $100 <-> $1000 palladium.
But silver is now 40% of it, while palladium still 80%.
Today the supply of PGM just got more precarious as 70, 000 more miners threaten strikes
Yet the price falls $20 -
Oh well at least one metal has a heartbeat - the one I don't own
well i cracked. im now a palladium investor
Getting close to the decade+ high now - I think ~$862 was the high. Bid was $852 last night and high overnight was $859 according to Kitco chart. A convincing break above the old high would make the palladium chart look like it's been consolidating its prior gains for the last 3 years in a bowl continuation pattern. I would be anticipating prices above $1,000 if that happened. Wish the gold chart resembled the energy in this.
Still hanging on to my emus.
Nice little diversification and they would still hold numi value even if the spot price fell
Was surprised to see so little interest in the palladium emu auction on here recently though
The emu has to be the best way to own palladium
Low mintages so little chance of fakes being made and numi value to boot
Here in North America, the only one government mint issued is the Canada Maple Leaf Palladium with issues from 2005 - 2007 and 2009.
Is that your stack, alor?
My sources are telling me there is palladium shortage... But I'm not sure whether it's a good time to invest right now...
Look at the Kitco price graph and you'll see - there's a long way down from up there:
In my view - shows no sign of faltering yet, has been consolidating for 5 years, looks like it's breaking out to continue the prior trend which was upwards
Read an interesting article on the Bloomberg.com website. It talks about the price of Palladium towards the end. It refers to the Malaysian airplane being shot down over Ukraine and the possible sanctions that could be assessed and the affects sanctions could have on the future price of Palladium, but then continues that this type of risk may already be built into the current price of palladium. This incident has a Lockerbie Bombing-esque (Pan Am Flight 103) feel to it, where no one accepted responsibility for years after the incident. So I feel like media influence could sway the price of Palladium depending on which stance they take.
What I meant to highlight was that it could fall tremendously - it's at its second peak during the last 14 years. Just look at what happened in 2001-2002
And why does your chart start from 2000 ?
Yes, a chart view is never certain and usually very open to alternative interpretations.
Lately I'm coming around to the idea that 'double tops' should be taken with grain of salt, especially when they're many years apart. So much has happened to change the conditions for palladium since 2001-2002. Anything overbought back then might not be overbought at the same price today, let alone gold silver or the PGMs.
So one way of looking at the chart is to start with the low around Dec 96 which I note is a higher low from what occurred 4 or 5 years prior. From the '96 Low there is a 4 year parabolic rise which takes palladium to its blow-off top of ~$1100 around Dec 2000. From that top it crashes to its major low in mid Dec 02. This crash wipes out almost all the gain it had made and takes only 2.5 years to do so. Since mid Dec '02, and ignoring the deep lows made in '04 and '07, it has taken ~11 years to be a couple of hundred dollars short of the 2000 blow-off top. It amounts to a much slower parabolic rise if you draw an imaginary midpoint line through all the gyrations. Contention: A slower rise has more potential than steep parabolic rise.
The interesting part is the last 3 years or so. I can only see this as a period of consolidation. I'd interpret it as a 'bowl' or 'triangle', both imperfect, but whichever, it has I believe been confirmed as a continuation pattern by the way the price has shot out of this multi-year congestion zone. There's been no hesitation and on the second chart you can see the price and 60 day moving average streaking clear and widening the spread from the slowly rising 200 dma
22 year Pall chart
10 year Pall chart with moving averages
You've probably seen this ...
PALLADIUM: In its own league, but also leading
Palladium has risen 21% this year. It's clearly one of our star performers.
It's actually been in a perfect storm type of situation this year (see Chart)
Palladium is produced by Russia and South Africa. The ongoing tensions in Russia and uncertainty have been keeping palladium strong. The long strike in South Africa gave the extra push upward.
Palladium's big picture is bullish. The chart shows palladium approaching its 2001 record high area, as it continues heading towards the top of its 44 year upchannel.
Its leading indicator also backs up a bullish scenario. Technically and fundamentally, palladium is set to rise much further.
You want to stay onboard! For now, that goes for gold and silver too.
By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
900 almost there
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