I guess most of you will have been keeping tabs on the Cyprus debacle where they will be stealing around 80% of your money (if you have savings over 100000 euros) to give to the banksters. Of course the PM warned all his mates to get their money out first and I read today that loans to politicians and their relatives are going to be written off but loans to the peasants will not..as per usual. Now most of you will probably also know that this is not limited to Cyprus. The theft model is going to be the 'new model for Europe', some thief in New Zealand has already proposed it for them and the Canadian thieves have already snuck the same provisions into their latest budget. I guess when the system collapses, which it must, they plan to take everyone else with them. So it seems obvious that gold is about the only safe alternative left, so I was wondering why, in the context of banks becoming unreliable, the price has been languishing and not doing much?
Related - http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-38340-why-isnt-gold-and-silver-going-up-yet-post-cyprus.html
Except for a little while during the GFC, NZ has been without deposit insurance. How is it sneaking in something if it is the current law? I'll leave the rest of that issue to the SS Kiwis.
Because the gold bull is coming to an end. I think the sharemarket and property will benefit more from this than gold. We've got all this cash sloshing around the system and people will be looking to get it out. What is the first thing Joe Public thinks of? Property and shares. Peoples confidence in the sharemarket will gradually be restored the way it has been performing. Not saying it makes sense, not saying I agree with it but that's the way I see it going. Surprisingly. C
Difference between no deposit insurance in New Zealand for example and Cyprus is, New Zealand controls its own money supply. If a New Zealand bank went broke and held $10 billion in deposits for example, the New Zealand Government could insure those deposits by in effect, printing $10 billion and driving armoured cars up to the bank branches for depositors to withdraw. In Cyprus however, the ECB controls the money supply. The Cypriot Government cannot print Euros and as such cannot give the same deposit assurance as say New Zealand, Australia etc.
The problem with that logic is : 1. Companies have falling production, sales and profit and the rising share prices have nothing to do with productivity only money printing by the Fed. 2. The minor uptick in US property is related to property companies buying up foreclosed homes to place on the market as rentals. This has nothing to do with a true market uptend or Joe public buying homes. So neither of these markets are based on any true fundimental strength - so you are right it makes no sense. When something makes no sense it usually ends quickly and badly.
Joe Public sees: 1. rising share prices 2. uptick in US property 3. falling PM prices for the last 2 years. Joe public says - "keep away from dem metals". See my signature for a more thorough explanation.
Interesting but Joe Public has no cash so it is irrelvant what they think they should buy. As I said the share market and property markets are not moving because of public demand or public perception. The public are no longer in the driving seat, the Fed and the banks are. They are the only players in town. How long can they keep playing this game, not that long from now.
Cyprus is too insignificant. What moves gold is what happens in the U.S., and their stats of late have been pretty positive.
I agree but these stats of late are fictitious based on Fed money printing and a Crack Up Boom. The point is that it will not last and suddenly without warning it will crash. Like so many false booms before; remember the green shoots. So the time to buy Au and Ag is now. Yes buy some now and buy more if the price falls further but do not expect metal prices to tank - that would be very unlikely as we are near the bottom. Equities and housing prices in the US will tank, when ??? that is the question. Perhaps in 3-6 months ?
No, no, no. The cheap money is being used to pay down debt! The market is giving people a false sense of rationality and... if you check the PE ratios of some of the companies, especially in the US of A they are total crap! (meaning they are too high) / out of wack! The average bloke can't see the trees for the forest. We have a similar mentality which took hold before the 1929 crash, everyone thought things were ok, everyone forgets history and...how quickly the market can correct. Sure the market can make you good money but you can also get wiped off the face of the earth. Imo, now is not a good time to be in the market, it's a good time to realise the world has a fiat crisis. Who in their right mind would buy stocks in Europe? Don't you see the contagion that has started which has the possibility to rip through the PIIGS? If the markets get spooked by bank runs and enforced government policy, who will invest? What will happen to stocks? I'll tell you what can happen...the whole shitten works can turn to poop, very quickly! Now is a time to have a stack of silver, gold and a currency that has no-connection with Europe or the US. Aussie dollars, New Zealand dollars are good and if you must buy stocks, like I've said many times before buy Australian banking stocks like the CBA. But...have a stack of silver! A a bluddy big stack because the central banks will control gold. I'm not saying don't have gold, have a stack but have a bigger silver stack because central banks don't collect it! Cheers H
I agree. However, the problem with that logic is that it disregards the most important element and that is confidence. The average Joe can still see "green shoots". The fact that they've been artificially fertilized doesn't matter. Confidence breeds confidence and that's not good for gold. C
mmm this Cyprus deal has the stink of cordite. A declaration of war between creditor and debtor nations entities. On one side we have Creditors ECB, Northern Europe, China, Russia On the other side we have the debtors USA, Japan, Southern Europe Debtors cannot survive deflation and must have inflation Creditor do not want inflation and would be comfortable with deflation Deflation means certain collapse with those with the gold able to rebuild after. Inflation risks a slow death with those with the gold surviving. hmmm, I always thought it would be china who would pull the pin
I well see your point & understand the sentiment in your writing but, imo....no. The bull has not stopped he is slowing down to take in what is going on around him. He will run again shortly. Not until the sheep are nicely back in their pen for Ben A much more valid reason for the current drops would be investors not moving towards PMs for now. Sure they don't see PMs as secure. The FED lies are holding for the moment. Just as the Euro is hanging on for dear life & investors continue to covet US bonds/treasuries. We'll see how it goes for the next few months. Am I disgruntled like you appear to be perhaps? Yes, I admit it. I definately view PMs in a far different light since Feb this year. Giving false reasons for this lag though? No! Folk need to be rattled so they really know whether PMs are for them in the long run. Not for the get rich quick, faint-hearted I'm afraid. TPTB make sure they are in control of the reserve for as long as possible.
