FT:"Pound hits 11-month low on no-deal Brexit fears"

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by Roswell Crash Survivor, Aug 10, 2018.

  1. Roswell Crash Survivor

    Roswell Crash Survivor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    2,508
    Likes Received:
    319
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Zeta Reticuli
    http://www.ft.com/content/efd2e4e2-9951-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d

     
  2. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2016
    Messages:
    984
    Likes Received:
    360
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    New Zealand
    Really?
    Even worse than our NZD?
    We are at a 3 year low here (currently sitting at $0.67) and i can easily see us going out to $0.50-$0.55 before xmas.

    This could be the perfect storm to sink NZ stackers if silver and gold continue their lower lows theme.
    I blame the current government (Labour or coalition of losers) when National was in power i could pretty much gaurantee if we saw our dollar lose value then silver would be increasing so in that respect nothing to see.
    Now we see our dollar losing value AND silver going down as well.
    At the moment i guess i am a little bit happy i am not holding BUT BUT BUT if i do see my $13 silver it may actually be pointless to buy back in .
    AT this rate i now need to see $9 silver in order to get what i would have had at $13 before the currency drop.
    That is just madness.
    I do not even want to do the math if our dollar goes to $0.55USD.
     
  3. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2016
    Messages:
    643
    Likes Received:
    832
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Yet UK's GDP rose more than EU27's in Q2. Only by a fraction, but given that we were guaranteed with absolute certainty and highest possible commanding authority that Brexit would cause mass unemployment, stock market collapse, housing market collapse, immediate and prolonged recession as well as punishment budget right the minute after the vote, I'd say it's not going too bad.

    (.... this is the point where Remoaners jump up and shout "but but but Brexit has not happened yet" .... :D )

    Everyone realizes no-deal going to hurt EU more than UK.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/optimism-on-european-growth-reverses-as-headwinds-mount-1534089601?

    @Guillintanni note FT is talking about major currencies. :p Otherwise they'd have their agendajournalism soured by having to mention TRY, BRL, RUB, IRR, ZAR, INR, and whatever is the current toilet paper brand them poor buggers in Venezuela are using for currency...
     
  4. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,083
    Likes Received:
    964
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney

    What does a no deal Brexit mean to UK, it means an immediate WTO tariff when trading with everyone in the world.

    All UK trade is currently done via European negotiated trade deals.

    When UK leave with No Brexit, UK cant trade with ANY country tariff free.

    If making a trade deal is easy, UK would have made a trade deal with Europe on Brexit.

    What everyone is missing is that No Deal Brexit means No Transition on day 1, UK will be trading with the rest of the world with tariffs

    Do you know what the tariff UK manufactured cars will be slapped with when sold to Europe, USA, Japan, China or Australia if there is no Brexit deal in March?

    Do you know what the tariff UK primary industry will be slapped with when sold to Europe, USA, Japan, China or Australia will be if there is no Brexit deal in March?

    No Deal Brexit, what will happen at Heathrow Airport to every European citizen going to and from Europe..

    Do you think Heathrow Airport airport has the immigration officers available to check/stamp extra millions of European passengers a week, who at this moment just has a cursory walk through.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2018
  5. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2016
    Messages:
    643
    Likes Received:
    832
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Ask from a Remoaner, it means fire, brimstone, plague, locusts and Lehman Brothers -moments in a perpetuous hell-loop ad infinitum. :rolleyes:

    In reality it will be difficult to anticipate - because the EU will have a parliamentary election in the coming spring (expected in May 2019) and given the recent shifts in political scene in EU member countries, the new parliament will likely look a whole lot different than the current one. Subsequently EU will likely (&hopefully) have markedly different policies and priorities than the current one.

    Here's some color from Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...-what-it-might-mean-for-britain-idUSKBN1KS1E2
    The EU is economically less important than what it's being touted for. It's a declining continent, unfortunately.
     
  6. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,487
    Likes Received:
    2,853
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    I think Britain will become a very internally focused domestic economy and possibly with food riots and varieties of civil disturbance. On a positive a lot of the freeloader EU types will disappear faster than a polish worker from Ireland in the GFC, so they might preserve some of their welfare state, since the population will need it.

    I've a friend who has a subsistence holding in Cornwall and she says that since she's been there six local farmers have closed up and gone to easier climes. She says that all that imported EU cheese will become prohibitively expensive after Brexit and there's an opportunity for the cheesemakers to be blessed - except the herds and the expertise is gone. She's stocking the shelves for a long, cold winter.

    There's also a chance that a wall goes up around the City of London too.
     
  7. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2016
    Messages:
    643
    Likes Received:
    832
    Trophy Points:
    93
    That's bollocks. You do realize that in EU all member nations have to have their say on their individual requirements and conditions, and vote on fta's. That means EU is an unfathomably difficult partner to deal with. Add to the fact the politized nature of European Commission and their thinly veiled intent to "punish" UK for having the audacity to leave and to make them a cautionary example to other countries contemplating exit of the failing union. The ones leaving first will prove to be the smart ones, the last ones will be the bag-holders.
     
    Ag bullet and Gullintanni like this.
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,083
    Likes Received:
    964
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    Aren’t you answering my question in your reply?

    ie I am stating that making a deal is not easy... if it was easy UK would have made a deal.

    Now consider....

    Why would a Belgium dairy farmer want UK milk in Europe. Of course not, so Belgium can block any agriculture deal for milk.

    Why would Polish car parts manufacturer want Uk car parts in Europe, so it obvious to blind freddy they will block UK, so Poland can expand.

    Why would German or French banks want UK having domestic trading rights in Europe?


    Why would France want Airbus wings made in UK, they will block that deal so Toulouse can build it

    And so on

    Dont get me wrong.... UK outside Europe has a future and it might be better for British citizens, But it might take 50 years for the dream to come true.


    Europe (and UK while it is part of Europe) already has thirty free trade deals including Tariff free to South Korea, Mexico, and Japan’s and likely Australia very soon. Plus many more Bi-Lateral trade deals

    For All other countries Europe/UK uses WTO tariffs.

    On the 30th of March 2019 if there is No-Deal Brexit

    UK will have ZERO deals of any kind with any country and will be trading with every country in the world with WTO tariffs.

    Europe will still have 30 free trade deal and the Bi-Lateral deals it already has.
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2018
  9. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,083
    Likes Received:
    964
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    Something dawned on me and I have changed my mind, a no deal Brexit will make life more equal in UK.
     
  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,825
    Likes Received:
    2,006
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)

Share This Page