FOMC meeting Thursday

Will they or won't they raise rates?

I say no due to soft wage growth and slowing manufacturing and services industries despite the headline employment and inflation figures giving the all clear. Forward guidance being the key as to where markets move after the decision. Hawkish or dovish changes to the dot-plots. I would think there will still be rhetoric about data dependence with a slight hawkish tone pointing to the possibility of a June rate hike. Of course if the Fed don't raise in June, chances are they will not be raising again anytime soon. Trading the EUR/USD and the XAU/USD on both sides at spot using forex.

AUD could be choppy. Any hint of a dovish USD selloff would see the AUD and gold push higher and greater the chances of a RBA cut next month. Even with a hawkish Fed, the AUD would be fairly well supported due to softness elsewhere in other currencies. Regardless if the AUD is still sitting above 75 cents in about 2 weeks there is a good chance the RBA will cut.

 

Actually the FOMC meeting is Tuesday-Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon they release the info. Plus this meeting features a press conference with Yellen starting at 2:00pm eastern time Wednesday.

I think they will raise another 25 basis points.

Jim

 

You do realise that Australia and the US aren't in the same time zone, right? In Australia, the release is held on Thursday morning

What do you base your 25 basis point raise on?

 

Sorry my bad on the date issue. I forget I am dealing mainly with "foreigners" here.

I think they will raise, but I can't articulate a specific reason other than "gut feeling".

Jim

 

Foreigners? Where?

Send 'em back where they came from!

 

Two different calls here - My money is on the call by the "foreigner" that is supported by relevant data as opposed to the local going off gut feelings.

 

oh what a surprise the FED does nothing and will continue to do nothing. people that think the FED can raise rates are in fantasy land.

When is that blabbering Yellen going to be put in a mental hospital.

 

I think your gut feeling was just gas

 

I wonder what the correlation is between Mexican food and people having gut feelings are :/ This is why you should never listen to gut feeling after eating foods that make you gassy.

This is a mistake Janet Yellen keeps making. No wonder she seems so edgy at talks. She need to let a massive fart rip, but we all know that Mexican food brings you on a fine line between farting and shitting your pants.

 

So thers no raise probably until June at least.

Steady as she goes.