Introduction The Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia. Much like the S&P500 or the ASX200, the FPI is meant to track market trends and act as a benchmark for Panda performance but not of the entire market, only the lower end. The FPI is an experiment to determine the Panda market trend, more specifically the baseline trend. Higher rarity and expensive graded pandas will most likely outperform the FPI however this is not financial advice. Data source The FPI will utilize the prices (China Ask Price, US/EU only where there is lack of data) of commonly accessible pandas (from pricepedia) to generate the index. The prices are not weighted by mintage or rarity or year and all are assumed to have equal weights in the index. By commonly accessible, I mean the following: - 1989 to 2011 1oz BU Bullion Silver Pandas - 1983 to 2011 1/4oz, 1/10oz and 1/20oz BU Bullion Gold Pandas The 1982 Gold pandas are not included as they don't have 1/20oz Gold size in that year. The pre-1989 Silver pandas were not included as they are proofs and not of 1oz denomination. Gold 1/2oz and above are not used, I just can't be bothered doing that many lol. The prices considered by the FPI is the cheapest possible price, ie. the Panda you are most likely to stumble across of that given year. For example, if there was a mirrored 2000 panda for $3000 and a frosted for $500, I would use the frosted. Thus for all intents and purposes, I have taken the cheapest/commonest panda of every year regardless of it being Serifs, D marks, Mint errors, Twigs, Large Date/Small Dates. As long as it is cheapest/common it is included and used as the reference point. The pricepedia may be listing prices over their worth or under their worth, thus the standard disclaimer of this is not financial advice applies. This is merely an interesting little project and experiment I'm undertaking for fun. Spot Prices The spot price is taken from pricepedia in US dollars. This is merely for informational purposes. Silver Spot Code: Time Spot % Aug-11 38.40 0.00% Sep-11 38.40 0.00% Oct-11 30.80 -19.79% Nov-11 31.50 2.27% Dec-11 31.50 0.00% Jan-12 28.50 -9.52% Feb-12 31.00 8.77% Mar-12 33.25 7.26% Gold Spot Code: Time Spot % Aug-11 1,605.00 0.00% Sep-11 1,839.00 14.58% Oct-11 1,650.00 -10.28% Nov-11 1,700.00 3.03% Dec-11 1,700.00 0.00% Jan-12 1,600.00 -5.88% Feb-12 1,700.00 6.25% Mar-12 1,720.00 1.18% The FPI The benchmark starting level is 1000 points using the pricing in August 2011. The Silver FPI Code: Time SFPI % Aug-11 1,000.00 0.000% Sep-11 1,019.22 1.922% Oct-11 1,025.63 0.629% Nov-11 1,022.11 -0.344% Dec-11 1,041.65 1.912% Jan-12 943.61 -9.412% Feb-12 950.66 0.747% Mar-12 1,007.69 5.999% The Gold FPI (1/20oz) Code: Time GFPI20 % Aug-11 1,000.00 0.000% Sep-11 1,012.69 1.269% Oct-11 1,122.24 10.817% Nov-11 1,141.37 1.704% Dec-11 1,098.42 -3.763% Jan-12 1,005.39 -8.469% Feb-12 978.79 -2.646% Mar-12 1,021.91 4.406% The Gold FPI (1/10oz) Code: Time GFPI10 % Aug-11 1,000.00 0.000% Sep-11 1,027.90 2.790% Oct-11 1,142.99 11.196% Nov-11 1,159.10 1.409% Dec-11 1,221.54 5.387% Jan-12 1,219.12 -0.198% Feb-12 1,073.39 -11.954% Mar-12 1,063.07 -0.961% The Gold FPI (1/4oz) Code: Time GFPI04 % Aug-11 1,000.00 0.000% Sep-11 1,107.29 10.729% Oct-11 1,183.32 6.866% Nov-11 1,174.24 -0.768% Dec-11 1,156.66 -1.497% Jan-12 1,208.51 4.482% Feb-12 1,154.00 -4.510% Mar-12 1,183.38 2.545% The FCSGPI The Fishball Cheap Skate Gold Panda Index (FCSGPI) benchmark starting level is 1000 points using the pricing in August 2011. The basket of pandas used in this index is from what I believe to be underpriced and bargain Gold pandas and also highly affordable at a low premium over spot. I have personally invested my money into these pandas so I am very interested in seeing the performance in coming months and years. They may or may not perform well, so don't blindly buy what I am buying . The FCSGPI includes the following Gold Pandas: 1984 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1985 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1986 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1987 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1988 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1989 1/20oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1985 1/4oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1986 1/4oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1987 1/4oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1989 1/4oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1983 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1984 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1985 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1986 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1987 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] 1990 1/10oz Gold Pandas[/*] The FCSGPI Code: Time FCSGPI % Aug-11 1,000.00 0.000% Sep-11 1,019.13 1.913% Oct-11 1,156.95 13.523% Nov-11 1,168.24 0.976% Dec-11 1,109.93 -4.991% Jan-12 1,097.03 -1.163% Feb-12 1,069.37 -2.521% Mar-12 1,082.97 1.272%
great idea fishy ! I agree to not include the "super rare" but the medium level silvers such as all of the 90's in all variants should be included as well as the 2000 frosted. What really amazes me is how the 2003 and 2004's have gone through the roof !!! maybe you can include the 1991 Chinese Panda that just set a WORLD RECORD at over $1.6 million dollars !!! j/k
Not gonna include the medium levels in this index, I am merely doing this as a baseline index for pandas. This is more like yennus' poor panda index as opposed to the PPI. Thought it'd be more relevant for stackers in general as the majority of us would not be buying MS70 frosted pandas. Any questions or suggestions about the index welcome.
Already added the Silver FPI onto the first post. Basically as you can all see, the growth in October was much lower due to the spot Silver price crashing but was overall quite resilient. Now... onto the Gold FPI The GFPI20 is skewed upwards by the price increase of the 1/20oz 1998 Gold Panda (almost 40% increase) as well as the bull Gold market. Update: The entire lot is added. The GFPIs are all skewed upwards due to the massive Gold rally, Golden Week in China as well as the 1995/1998 Gold Pandas appreciating well over 30% in value. As such take these values only as a reference, it is likely the future gains will be lower % per month.
Unfortunately I don't have the data available so nope. But at least from this point onwards we'll be able to observe what happens [del]on the lower end of the panda market.[/del] when you stack generic bullion BU pandas.
An interesting project for sure Fishball but eliminating those coins you have mentioned in your post basically tracks only 12 (1989, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011) of the 36 varieties minted from 1989 to 2011 (1 oz silver BU). Although they are bullion coins, because of their extremely low mintage pandas are bought and sold as valuable numismatics. A $10 drop in spot has not affected the price of any of those 24 that have been eliminated nor 8 of those that are being tracked in the FPI. I'm just curious, if you really wanted to compare how pandas appreciate/depreciate related to the spot of silver, wouldn't you want to track those 4 or 5 pandas that are affected by spot? The 2010 & 2011 are really the only two pandas that are significantly affected by spot and it's simply because of their high mintage.
I should clarify that... I did take all the years in between, what I meant was that I did not split the classification into different types of that year's coin. So for example: 1999 1/4oz Gold Panda would have $1175 (Small Date), $610 (Large Date No Serif), $3338 (Large Date w/ Serif), I took $610. Likewise for the other years, if D mark was more expensive than non-D mark, I took the non-D mark as a reference point. Actually this is not to track spot, as I have said it is to track how the low end generic panda market performs as a whole, so assuming you had stacked generic BU bullion easy to access pandas as opposed to stacking high quality premium high grade rare pandas. In fact, I realize this is not remotely accurate at all of an index due to the fact a lot of the bullion is now numismatic but it's a starting point to gauge the future performance of pandas as it happens in the future Edit: updated original post to reflect this
Comments and critique appreciated, if you have any particular trends you think are interesting and worth pursuing I don't mind putting the data together as long as it's reasonable! Might add a 'fishball recommendation index' and see how my recommendations go in the long run lol.
I wanna see the lunar index, they been going insane too lately. I wonder if it is just ss or globally.
The Fishball Panda Index is famous! (Or as famous as I can make it anyways). It'll now be included in all the LBC investment coin lists. Here's the link: http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=4800.msg18741#msg18741
What a classic! Well done fish - more hours of work from you again for no monetary gain. Thanks mate.
November's data updated, the prices seem to be consolidating and heading sideways a bit, which is a good thing after a ramp upwards and probably due to the anticipation of the chinese lunar dragon release. Gains and losses are both within 2%.
