I'm taking last night's close as the end of the week, even though the 'after' markets are still open. So on the close of the week what have we - after such a confidence shaking Wednesday and Tuesday? Not what I was expecting after the Monday rally, but not too bad a final result. During a consolidation, when I can't decide for sure whether the outcome will be down or up, I get down to scrutinizing the candles for clues. We had an indecisive candle last week and I was hoping for a strong white candle this week after silver got off to a good start first day. Those two candles (indecisive followed by strong positive) would have amounted to a pattern suggesting an end to the downleg - it wasn't to be. However, despite the smack downs of Tuesday and Wednesday, silver finished the week with a low that did not significantly breach the low of week ending Mar 19 (i.e that red candle of week before last). So my assessment is that we're still in with a shot at ending this 5 week retracement of the January-February rally soon. That's still how I'm seeing it, unless a decisive break of the March 19th weekly low occurs. Just one good positive candle in the next week or two would change the picture dramatically for the better, and I'm still optimistic.
^^^^ I'm no TA, but couldn't you draw some tramlines over that chart, which would see the next dip hitting 25-26$? also there's something I read about Elliott wave theory, so 5 something or others and then something changes?? ... like I said I'm no TA
Reggie are you a TA? No , I didn't think so. I have the strangest feeling all the chart analysts said we are heading for a bull run on silver. This couldn'tve been more than 2 weeks ago. Where has that technical analysis gone? Where's Mr Sqiggle to confirm or deny this? Or was that a long range trend?
Reggie, I don't claim to be a T.A either, just my hunches based on contemplating a chart, and informed with whatever I've casually picked up about charting over eight years or so. I do use these hunches in buy/sell decisions for better or worse. Re: tramlines. There's only one trendline that I've identified. The major resistance downtrend line was temporarily broken above at the end of Feb but reversed by massive shorting within a day or two - something else that I find bullish. That downtrend line is now at just under $34, so is not currently topical. I can't draw it in as I don't subscribe to stockcharts, and frankly I found annotation a bit of a challenge when I was using it for posts. I can't see any trendline suggesting $26 again, though for other reasons I still see that target as a possibility, but with a slim chance. Becomes a much stronger chance if the low of week ending Mar 19 is broken. Re: Elliott Wave - I only look to it for a rough and iffy guide.
^^^^^ x2 Hi RomanControl You're quite right, I'm not a TA, although I think I was quite clear about that in my OP. As for your other questions; I'm afraid I've not been here that long, so I can't answer them Sorry... ^^^^ x1 Hi Finicky; I forgot to mention in my OP that I enjoyed your original analysis... you may not be a TA, but you seem to know a lot more than me.
Hi Reggie, I was just pulling your leg. I'm not a TA either and have no idea what these financial boffins are talking about.
Recent comments from esteemed, not to say revered, technical analyst Louise Yamada on where she sees gold and silver. "When asked about silver, Yamada replied, "You've got to watch support at $30. Silver tried to break out and failed, which isn't great. So, silver needs more work (consolidation). It needs to get through the $35 to $36 area. That will open up a move to $40." When asked about gold specifically, Yamada responded, "Gold has to get through $1,800. $1,600 has to hold in the short-term. $1,550 to $1,600 is okay, but I wouldn't like to see a move to the lower end of that range because your uptrend and support are coming in right now around $1,600. Gold has a horizontal consolidation in place. I was disappointed gold couldn't break $1,800 previously, but again, sideways is okay. This sideways action is healthy, this consolidation, but gold now has to prove itself."" April 5, 2012 http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Score_Big_in_Stocks,_Gold,_Silver_&_Oil.html
