Quite a few internationally known Forecasters have put their name on the block and predicted the Price Of Gold in the future. I think it would be usefull to some to be reminded of who these people were and what they forecasted.This timeline does not intend to shame those forecasts that have failed but to remind us that we all have a feeling as to were the POG is going to go.Unfortunatly we often doubt our own senses and analasis when beeing confronted by the caliber of the "experts" The first "FAIL" was Jim Sinclair-Mr Gold as he is called,$1650 by January 14th,2011 the following calls are going to expire soon (Jim Sinclair $3000 - $5000 by June 2011) (James Dines-the "Original Gold Bug" $3000 - $5000 by June 2011) Many more to come
Would be more fun if you provided sources for each failed prediction. I'm now listening to a Jim Sinclair interview from 2010 (from kingworldnews). He does mention $1650 but no date given - so far.
Which goes to show that everyone should listen to what others have to say but evaluate their statements themselves. Some have agendas, some have bias's, some are deceitful and others may be just well intentioned. Then there are the annoying ones who are just correct Regardless, i'm still impressed that they have the b@lls to put it on the line in public. I'm smart enough to know my limitations and not make a public declaration even if anyone were to listen to me anyway. There was also a "silver at 51.51" by a stated date about now floating around a footer in silver stackers. I was interested in that one.
http://www.jsmineset.com/2010/09/07/strapping-in-for-the-big-move/ Found the claim by Jim Sinclair. I'm still relatively new to this precious metals biz, but there it is right on his site. "I will stand with what I have said for nearly 10 years. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011."
This is a new one from S&P http://cnbusinessnews.com/sp-raises...om-1100-per-ounce-to-1200-per-ounce-for-2011/ Standard & Poor's Thursday raised its gold price assumption from $1,100 per ounce to $1,200 per ounce for the remainder of this year. The price assumption for 2012 was raised from $1,000 to $1,100 per ounce, while the price assumption for 2013 and beyond is now $900 per ounce, versus $900 for 2012, $700 for 2014, and $600 for 2015 previously.
Since Sinclair made the $1650 call about a decade ago, he missed, but still did well. I read Sinclair daily and do not recall him predicting anything other than $1650 by a specific month. So, I too am curious as to where you saw this $3-5000 prediction.
One more today June 21 (Reuters) - BofA Merrill Lynch said an investment demand required to sustain gold prices in a range of $1,500-2,000 per ounce could be feasible in the next five years. The brokerage believes investment has had a critical influence on the gold market and investor buying is the key to its long-run supply and demand balances. "We look at supply and demand balances required to clear the gold market under three average price scenarios (i.e. $1,000/oz, $1,500/oz and $2,000/oz over the coming five years)," BoFA said in a note to clients. The brokerage said gold prices above $2,000 or below $1,000 per ounce were not sustainable. Sustaining a medium-term average price for the metal at around $2,000/oz looked challenging, BoFA said. "In our view, to push gold above this level would require a disorderly sovereign default in the Eurozone or QE3 in the US, both of which are not our base case at the moment," the brokerage said
ha ha, that reminds me, I should upgrade my footer to make the tin foil hat bias clear for the sake of new members
So,its July 2011 and I feel its time to look at some other forecasters who's time is running out. As failed we've got Jim Sinclair (Mr Gold) 3000 - 5000 by June 2011 (Search for the Angelchart on his site) James ("The original Goldbug")Dines ,3000-5000 June 2011 Bob Kirtely US$10.000 by 2011 Patrick Kerr US$5000 - US$10.000 by 2011 Taram Marwah US$ 3000 by Dec 2011 Bob Chapman US$3000 by 2011
I used to read some of those predictions and think 2 things 1.Whoah! 2.It takes brass ones to stake your reputation on the line. With todays economic conditions, i forgive and respect them all. REDBACK
If Jim Sinclair predicted $1650 ten years ago then he was spot on compared to everyone and his grandma that at $1000 said that gold was overpriced and would drop in price.
"Assumption", I love that word. I love this quote too: "Taking advice on anything financial from Standard and Poors is like taking swimming lessons from a brick."
There's a subtle, but important background process through all of this that people need to be aware of and appreciate. Information flow and control of the masses stems from a few base instincts which (when controlled) become the most valuable tools in directing decision making processes in people. One such avenue is the assumption that humans are creatures of habit. If you can create a situation where this thought process is interrupted or controlled, you can indirectly influence decision making in humans to meet specific agendas. How does this relate to this situation? People love predictable outcomes. Create a situation where the outcome is no longer predictable and people will doubt it. In as much as the global credit and housing market was heavily manipulated, so too is the precious metals market. Gold, Silver and other commodities can be directly influenced at the top level by vested interests. Now industry commentators make 'predictions' based on historical facts & assume future trends from this process. Whilst the likes of Sinclair, Celente, Chapman, Schiff and others have made public statements and predictions, they do so based on historical trends and logical estimates for what comes next. The problem is, they do not control directly what can come next. But those that CAN control what comes next have an active agenda to ensure that the population discount what these people tell them. ie It's a propaganda war. It's always been this way, which is why you get a minority of people who shout warnings in a crisis situation, but are ridiculed, laughed at and publically denounced. Why? Why would you set an active agenda to denounce a warning? Why would you want to not give a balanced arguement to a financial commitment? Why wouldn't you give credence to history as a possibility of future events? These are the questions you have to ask yourself, which in turn leads to inevitable conclusions once you pull back the thin vaneer of propaganda. Denouncement of those who would question the status quo and directly influence the decisions of the public against your agenda is an obvious tactical ploy in combating reason and logic. They don't need to drag these people off into the woods and silence them. It's far more effective to push a button and crash a commodity price at the right time to effectively character assassinate them instead. You will find quite clearly that despite history and logical analysis of markets, future market activity remains heavily influenced not by free market outcomes - but direct intervention and market manipulation. As such, it's VERY difficult to accurately predict future outcomes without being a target. At the end of the day it's very important to note that despite target figures being missed by outspoken market commentators, the underlying reasons and core arguement for this investment strategy remains as sound as it ever was. If you people didn't believe that, you wouldn't be on this forum in the first place. By all means, take market predictions with a grain of salt. Not because these people don't know what they're talking about and should summarily be dismissed because they couldn't predict a price point in a market that's influenced to 'prove them wrong' But because of the fact you'd have to appreciate the market IS manipulated and ANY price point prediction is merely guessing and speculation. At the end of the day you have to remember that those who are in control of the market have an active agenda to keep you asleep - by any means possible. They laugh at the market commentators who make predictions to the public on which way a remote control car will turn next - when they hold the remote. Why tell those people to be quiet, when you can just turn the car the other way and let the public see that the person was 'wrong' all along and they shouldn't listen to him at all? Think about it...
Some of those predictions may still come true - it is not the end of 2011 yet! I will make a prediction and you can all ridicule me at the years end - I predict $1800 gold price by December! I think a lot of people talk up gold because they want people to buy into it to raise the price for their own agenda plus everyone whos a gold stacker likes to be told the high prices, it keeps people interested in you and what you are saying. If I had said I predict it to be $800 by the end of the year you would not want to listen to me again because it is not what you want to hear! I would be ostracized.
i found this interview interesting with an "alleged" sociopath that was allegedly in close contact with the PTB and speaks about their "world" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nLgHnC6BdE
I've seen this before and endured almost an hour waiting for some sense to be shown but no credibility at all. As forecasters go it's fail sorry. Now my totally unskilled forecast is that the bottom was reached yesterday in AUD terms for Ag and Au and from here it is more expensive to buy in. Next dip may take Ag back to 40 or so but days of $30 spot gone for quite a few years. The above commentary is not investment advice and is based upon my view of the angle of the moon to the horizon looking out my kitchen window.
One thing about making predictions is - if you are wrong you can always make an excuse such as - the market was manipulated etc etc and then let people forget you ever said it. But - if you are right then you become a hero and can keep repeating how right you always are and from it make a big name for yourself, so theoretically it is better to make a lot of predictions eg price end of month, end of year, over 5 years etc and maybe you will get it right somewhere and become a hero!
