To review november 2012: - IShares Silver Trust (SLV) started the month with 319,812,580 ounces, reached a peak of 323,935,348 ounces on 9 november, and dropped back to 313,722,526 ounces (-6,09 Moz) - Sprott Physical Silver trust (PSLV) started the month with 40,472,902 ounces, and increased to 49,287,863 ounces now (+8,81 Moz) - ETF Securities Physical Silver (SIVR) started the month with 18.521.405 ounces, and dropped to 18.417.787 ounces now (-0,1 Moz) - Claymore Investments (SVR-UN) started the month with 3,387,057 ounces, and dropped to 3,347,751 ounces now (-0,04 Moz) - Commodity Exchange, Inc (Comex) started the month (30/10 figure) with 268,660,000 ounces, and increased to 283,960,000 ounces now (27/11 figure) (+15,30 Moz) The rest didn't move. Together, it's +17,88 Moz. The spot price was $32,18 on 1 november and $33,44 on 30 november. Ignoring the unknown amount futures contracts on 30 november, a price difference of $1,26 reflects a stocks difference of 17,88 Moz. That's 14,19 Moz per price dollar. So, to bring $50, we have $50-$33,44=16,56 price dollars, which would then need the (future) stocks to increase 16,56x14,19=235 Moz. That's +47000 futures contracts (todays is 56792 and the highest seen since 2007 was 75000) Or SLV buying at about the same rate as in march/april 2011 (+6,64 Moz every market open day of the two months, to a record stock of 600 Moz). Or current US Mint sales multiplied by 60. Or me adding 470,000 monsterboxes. Anyone seeing a chance on $50 ? Let's try $40. That's 6,56 price dollars, or stocks increasing 6,56x14,19=93 Moz. That's +18620 futures contracts. Or SLV adding 15 times the amount they dumped during november. Or US Mint sales multiplied by 30. Or me adding 186000 monsterboxes. Anyone seeing a chance on $40 ? And that's then the amount needed to 'see' that price. In order to keep it, aboves demand increase should stay. Think about it.
SLV players seemed to have rushed back in: 2012/11/09 323,935,348.500 2012/11/12 323,306,047.100 2012/11/13 322,483,146.800 2012/11/15 321,031,011.800 2012/11/16 319,578,894.800 2012/11/19 318,126,801.800 2012/11/20 317,642,788.800 2012/11/22 315,658,356.000 2012/11/28 315,174,390.000 2012/11/29 314,448,453.000 2012/11/30 313,722,526.500 2012/12/04 314,756,320.700 2012/12/05 316,014,502.300 2012/12/13 317,369,318.700 2012/12/20 318,143,414.700 2012/12/21 322,981,444.700 2012/12/31 324,239,127.100 That last number is a new high since at least april 2012. 7 weeks ago was the previous high so SLV returned to its early november 2012 level. The Comex players net dumped (49678-46708)x5000=41.7 Moz over the same period. The spot price dropped $2.3.
I am going to say thanks as you have put a lot of details in. However my small capacity for these things negates me to understand fully. However if I get the general idea. You are saying there is not enough demand at the moment to increase the Price of Silver. Y/N
A couple special events today: Comex stock increases to a year high: 152.260.752,038 ounces. IShares Silver Trust 2013/01/15 326,759,768.600 2013/01/16 345,137,860.600 added 18,378,092 ounces (571,6 tonnes), also the biggest change I saw during my monitoring period (april 2012+). The average daily change in the $32->$50 price movement in 2011 was +209 tonnes per day over the period march+april 2011. This big amount on 16/01/2013 is twice that average.
The general idea is to know which segment(s) of the silver market is(are) responsible for a certain price change (up/down) For ex, if you see all the ETF stocks and Comex position constant, and the silver price increases, it may signal alot physical buying. For ex, if you see the IShares Silver Trust stock increase and Comex position constant, and the silver price increases, it signals alot paper silver bought as ETF shares. For ex, if you see the Comex position increasing, but ETF's stocks constant, and the silver price increases, it signals alot paper silver bought as a futures contract on the Comex. That's the general idea.
@Pirocco, many thanks for your input, I have 3 questions. By "futures" do you refer to OTC's? Do new rules governing the register of OTC's (which I consider to have a greater and fundamentally different impact on the price of silver) make it possible to track their impact on sales? Do OTC's have any impact on silver demand or supply considering that they are traded with no intention of physical delivery?
With 'futures' I mean Comex market silver futures contracts, where you agree to buy or silver in 5000 ounces chunks, in the future (X months ahead)
This years Ishares Silver Trust SLV's stock evolution: 2013/01/03 324,099,581.900 2013/01/04 323,470,757.600 2013/01/07 325,115,347.800 2013/01/10 325,792,488.600 2013/01/15 326,759,768.600 2013/01/16 345,137,860.600 <- single day buy of 18,4 Moz (that's a half year US Mints ASE sales at a fat 3 Moz per month) 2013/01/22 343,687,009.600 2013/01/24 337,497,108.800 <- single day dump of 6,2 Moz 2013/01/25 336,578,312.500 2013/01/28 335,756,245.200 2013/01/31 333,677,044.700 2013/02/02 335,175,993.900 2013/02/04 335,036,944.900 2013/02/07 335,858,876.200 2013/02/08 337,406,018.600 2013/02/15 338,276,212.400 2013/02/20 338,856,290.000 2013/02/21 340,886,515.400 2013/02/27 341,369,860.400 2013/02/28 342,046,537.800 2013/03/01 342,433,205.000 2013/03/04 342,292,222.100 2013/03/12 344,128,591.100 2013/03/15 345,095,059.100 2013/03/19 340,262,979.100 <- single day dump of 4,8 Moz 2013/03/21 341,954,161.600 2013/03/22 343,645,323.100 2013/03/27 344,128,478.100 2013/04/03 343,302,253.400 2013/04/05 337,505,197.400 <- single day dump of 5;8 Moz The Comex stock (another story) was 152,3 Moz in my previous post. The last change 2013/04/03 showed it as 164,5 Moz, so again higher. http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls I don't have an explanation for this. It hovered an entire year around the 140 Moz. Begin december 2012 it started to rise. Everything has a reason and it bugs me that I don't know / can't even guess the reason for this one. Why do entities store more and more of their silver in close-to-market located stocks? Does this indicate a miners/recyclers production surplus so a bad production planning? The price dropped since, so could be confirmed by the lower demand and/or higher sales fro previous 'investment'. But we saw those price cycles earlier (the year before) too, and the Comex stock then didn't show such increase. My first snapshot of the .xls is this one: Activity date 15 december 2011 34.084.040 ounces registered. 77.895.005 ounces eligible. 111.979.045 ounces total. Price was $29,47 then, so far from a peak/high price that could have indicated alot demand so presumably low stock. My second is: Activity date 9 april 2012 29.302.649,795 ounces registered. 110.308.238,305 ounces eligible. 139.610.888,100 ounces total. Price was $31,76 then. Then it hovered around that 140 Moz until start december 2012. A week before the lowest spot price moment in this period, the $26,2 USD on 28 juni 2012 (not end of day though), the Comex stock was a 146 Moz inter-small-high (23 juni, end of day price $26,9). So there is clearly no direct relation between Comex stock and spot price. Also not a relation in phase-shifted time, a low or high stock doesn't predict a future or confirm a past. As said, it's a pity that I don't have older data, for ex the past decade.
2013/04/15 336,007,785.800 2013/04/23 331,757,790.600 The first more serious drop since the silver price was mowed down from USD $27 to $23. If they dump another fat 10 Moz then it will have returned to 2012 'normal' stock.
2013/04/25 333,303,182.600 2013/04/26 334,124,167.000 2013/04/29 334,607,098.000 2013/04/30 336,055,837.000 2013/05/02 335,376,960.800 2013/05/09 335,666,675.000 2013/05/15 334,121,683.000 2013/05/16 331,852,518.300 2013/05/17 329,631,679.700 2013/05/20 327,893,650.100 2013/05/22 322,245,369.800 2013/05/29 321,279,945.800 2013/06/04 321,135,274.700 2013/06/11 321,473,111.500 And so here we are, back to 2012 "normal stock"
