Given that my interest in PMs is simply to diversify my assets in preparation for a rainy day, I have to consider what sort of conditions would prompt me to sell some and, more importantly, what would be easiest to sell in such a situation and to whom. Have you ever sold during a crisis, such as the last GFC? If so, how easy was it to find a buyer, did you get a fair price and what form of PM was in demand - gold, silver, bars, semi-nums, premium nums......? If numismatics, did you realise an appropriate premium? If bars, did the buyer have any preference for blobs, minted bars, any particular size? What type of buyer did you find - a bullion dealer or private investor? Did you sell for cash or barter? Obviously, this kind of info is important for those of us stacking for hard times.
Fernando "Ferfal" Aquirre, went through an economic collapse in Argentina and wrote a book with advice on how to survive. He said that gold and silver were valuable during times of high inflation, but you needed to be careful about flashing gold bars in environments such as markets, where thieves were everywhere. To avoid standing out in these places it was best to have jewelry to trade so it looks like you're just selling the family jewels. Gold bars and coins were best sold at reputable jewelers or bullion dealers. He probably didn't have access to a SilverStackers group.
He wrote 2 books :- * Surviving the Economic Collapse * Bugging Out & Relocating Both might be worth a read. I like the name of his 2nd book :lol:
I'm not expecting total armageddon (fingers crossed) but how having PMs might be useful in a major GFC, where the principal problems are raging inflation, high unemployment, plummeting property prices, etc. I expect to be retired when the next one hits and living off my super and cash in the bank. I'm wondering what the market for (not just the price of) PMs would look like in that scenario. It might be, for instance, that the high street bullion traders quickly saturate and don't want to buy more?
In Fernando's book "Surviving the Economic Collapse" he said there was a huge increase in the number of gold dealers, so there was no problem selling gold and buying things as everything was still available. The main problem was prices were so high, and people couldn't afford to buy their necessities. It wasn't a time of armageddon, but more like raging inflation, high unemployment and high crime rates.
Dealers and Pawn shops will always buy your metal, as they sell to the refiners. whether you get spot or not is the question.
Ask yourself the Question. Scenario.. You live in Cyprus or Greece, was it better financially to have your savings in the bank when the bail in occurred or have your saving in silver or gold? In the last GFC of 2008/09 the share market here in Australia dropped 50% as well as the US. Super funds savings here were cut in half. Even now the share market in Australia has only recently returned to the post 08 GFC crisis level. Living off your super and bank savings may make you as poor as a church mouse. Silver/gold may be your insurance in bad times.. Lets hope that bad times are not part of the equation and never eventuates! Regards Errol 43
Which is why I'm getting into PMs, but I need to understand how easily they can be used/sold/bartered in a crisis, to help me decide how much I should own.
Gold and silver also fell during the GFC. The shops I tried had only collectable gold. The big gold suppliers had some.
There are "crises" and then then there are real SHTF crisis. Something like the GFC is not a real crisis that would affect the ability to sell metal. There will always be buyers. If a "real" sudden crisis happens and "the system" goes down and people are panicing on the streets, then no one will want to buy you metal they will only want the thing they know, cash.
Why? It didn't during the last GFC. If you kept your job (as most did) then it was business as usual for most. It's not like inflation suddenly shot up 100% and everything cost double, there was barely any change at all!
True and also you need to be active with your money. The mentality I could not understand with Cyprus was all the people actually living there with skin in the game ie citizens of Cyprus starring at impending implosion for months,.... burying their heads in the sand and thinking all will be well. But I guess it is the same all over the world. I kick myself everyday, that I did not convert a bigger chunk of my saving into US dollars at $1AUD to $1.10US. Everyone in the world was saying it was madness that AuD would be worth that much USD.
I was stuck in a queue at the bullion dealers and badly needed to go to the toilet... does that count ? But in all seriousness, during the last bull run in Silver selling wasn't a problem...some got walked to the head of the queue. It was the buyers that to stand in long lines like schmucks. You should've seen the line ups.
Used to read his blog ferfal" as a staple in the rotation. He had some pretty unreal stories about life in Buenos Aires on his site, but you'd have to go back years, maybe 2010/2011ish. He left and ultimately ended up in Spain. He is now mostly torches and knives, imo. Still a good site to read archives.
http://ferfal.blogspot.com.au/?m=1 https://deeppoliticsforum.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-18.html?s=a59d3497ffa0da0090444d5c28196423 Argentina 2008 What was your most important need/concern in the first few days after TSHTF, and what advice do you have for the rest of us regarding your answer? First, make sure you have enough supplies ( food and water) to last for a couple of weeks at least. If you dont, rush to the supermarket and buy it using credit card if they still accept it. If you have enough food, stay put at home and keep track through the TV of whats going on. Dont go out there just to fool around. IN our case, martial law and curfew at 8 PM was established, people could not gather in group greater than 2 or 3 persons, so it was not safe anyway. None the less, few obeyed all this crap, but it was still established so you know what you were dealing with if cops caught you. their basic preparedness kits, right along with food, water, money, and medicines. We watched daily as the lootings spread everywhere, and when the mobs of distressed people started looting homes along with the supermarkets and shops, things got really scary. I watched such a mob pass about 15-20 yards from my home. At first I only heard drums ( used during the protests) but these protesters were also looting along the way. The mass of looters was huge, covered the entire street and sidewalk, all across as far as I could see, a block long or more. So, having means to defend yourself is very important during the first days as well as later on, after the veil of fear of punishment per crime is removed from the society. People that seem normal during normal times, unleash the animals they keep at bay during law abiding times. The evil among normal people also surprised me. Average Joe takes advantage of the possibility to loot without getting punished for it if he sees the chance. Hell, nothing people do surprises me anymore. Then there was the need to get cash, which disappeared within hours from ATMs after banks closed. The NO credit card signs showed up instantly. Only cash. And cash was getting very hard to find. Many supermarkets closed their doors, fearing looters, and those that were opened quickly started to run out of basic supplies. As for advice: -Keep a healthy amount of cash at home at all times. Precious metals work but youll need cash to get by until banks and financial entities willing to pay a fair price reopen. Selling your gold in a pawn shop will be bad business, most likely theyll try to get advantage of your need. At least until the market settles and then theyll start paying according to the real value, but this takes some time. - -Have at least one or two months worth of food, water, medicines ( prescription meds you need for a certain condition you may have!), whatever you use around your house, such as soap, shampoo, dishwasher soap and various cleaning supplies. Once you have that, work towards a 6 to 12 month supply, specially concerning food. 2 or 3 years worth? Yes, nice to have but if you see the SHTF period extending that long, you better have a place to relocate because its simply not safe to be there anymore. -Work towards financial security. Money in accounts in two or three countries, investments portfolios, real estate. Try placing your eggs in different baskets because, as we talked about it earlier, you cant really trust them. Real estate is probably the safest and easiest form of investment, it has worked for my family really well, even through the crisis. We still have the pieces of land and buildings over it. It looses some value but adjusts over time to the reality of the country, going back to become a source of income. -Have back up plans for EVERYTHING. Alternative sources of light, for transportation , fuel, ways of cooking, but most of all, have another location to move in case it is no longer possible to continue in the country or region where you are. This is my case and Im really glad to have alternatives to move out of my country. Im not talking about a cabin somewhere or a retreat, once things get that bad, you better get moving and relocating somewhere else, another state or even another country. You simply cant fight the reality around you when crime gets out of control, along with everything else. Have your papers ready ( passport, birth certificate, etc) -Know that during troubled times a house, retreat or cabin is of any use as long as it is inhabited. If SHTF for real, no empty building remains empty for long. Either it gets picked to the bare walls, or even worse , you find it one day with a family or several already established in there, which will take a long time for you to evict the invaders through legal channels. -Keep a low profile. Showing off money or expensive clothes, flashy cars or jewelry is a good way to get targeted by criminals. -Understand that in just a matter of weeks crime starts increasing exponentially when serious SHTF such as an economical collapse occurs. These kind of situations may take decades to reverse, or maybe never go back to what it used to be. When I was 20 years old I lived in a 1st world country, 8 years later its a mixture of cheapo 3rd world tourist sites, a bit of tasteful 1900 architecture, surrounded by sights fitting either Ecuador, Colombia or some kind of war zone, and it all went to hell in a hand basket in less than a year. The change was amazing for anyone that cared to notice. Libraries, churches, town theaters, it all closed and later reopened having been replaced by bar-***** house joints, All for 2$ shops, Bingos, casinos, self proclaimed churches, many with links to Umbanda Brazilian rituals. A perfect example of the decay in our society trough the last years. Hope that helps. http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html
