Hi, Did anyone notice? Might not be,... but "what if"? I see a possible "double top" forming on silver's price chart... and also on gold's price line as well! Both new highs are lower (so far), might take a dip and that "double top" will eventually turn the trend downwards. It would still have to drop about a dollar in order to confirm the trend reversal.
The last spike, anything that has happened since - let's say: August 7th (approximately). There are two "humps" up there. Clearly visible. The second one forming right now. Yes, I know - one should check candle chart in details, bla bla bla... but even on Kitco, you can see it. This doesn't guarantee it will form, but it's a possibility. Just watch to see if it continues to go up, surpass the previous "hump" or, whether the new one will peak below the previous one and then silver will head south.
I see what you see there, but look at the gold chart over the past 60 days..same could have been said for gold around Aug. 12-13(1330-1340?).. Could go either way at this point, imho. Next 24 hours should be telling.
I'm not sure what chart you looked at but the one I looked at could form a double bottom, which would cause it to go up more
With gold (2yrs timeframe), I am seeing the spot closed a higher high with a pullback. Seems that it is time for the pullback as the spot already reached usd 1415? If so, we may see it in sep month?
Gotta admit, 10 year gold and silver are both dead ringers for the "typical bubble pattern", with September 2013 right around "new normal", or maybe early-onset "fear". Compare: Source: Kitco historical gold Source: Kitco historical silver Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9372.html For the record, I'm not into technical trading, but plenty of people are, and with the ETFs still ascendant, gold is as susceptible to bubbles as any other commodity. I do not actually think gold is a commodity, but it is presently traded as one. If we're heading for a smackdown, so much the better. I needz mawr silvrs!
It has gone down this morning... we'll see if it goes lower. I didn't look at more detailed charts, with candles and other sophisticated elements. But this could be enough. Some say even these reversal charts work only 60-70 % of the time. I would be surprised if it would go down to 18-19 $. I don't think that will happen, but silver could correct to 21-22 USD.
I don't see silver ever getting back down to $5, or gold to $300. The trend has certainly moved a fair way up since then I'd wager. Heck, even just with inflation it's up 30%, and this in a "low inflation" decade. New "rock bottom" would be somewhere near the marginal cost of production - say $800-$1000 for gold and $12-$15 for silver. I guess it's possible it could dip lower and smash a few miners on the way through... I'm just not sure there'd be that much physical available at such prices.
^^^ Well put yeti, but I would argue that we have used up too much time for that model to be the right template. Fear would corrode the situation faster than the 2 years silver bugs have seen so far. Also I question whether you'd get a rally this robust if it was a 'return to to normal' delusion. What happend in the 80s gold crash or the US housing or NASDAQ bubbles? Did they spend 2 years declining only to be still at high levels relative to their beginnings? To this I will add that there are sort of anecdotal observations that nothing that has been seen yet corresponds to bubble definitions - wide spead participation foremost
Ok, heres an historical chart I found of one of them, gold, and I must admit it looks like it took 2.5 years about for gold to form a major low from its 1980 peak. All the same it had fallen much further than now in the same duration. The NASDAQ took longer than I thought too it looks. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djiagold1980.html Gold being the chart in the bottom half
thanks for your chart pics yeti. whilst at first glance the images look somewhat similar - in actuality they are nothing like what we saw to $1900. Look at the words on your bubble chart - look at the public section --------- what do you see? first - there is a public section - in the pic -------- but, the reality was - we didn't have a public section ------------ it NEVER happened. what does the pic say in the public section - the mania phase? It says ------------ greed and delusion. Did we see greed? Nope, not a sausage ---------- hardly anyone owned gold at all Did we see delusion? Nope ------------- most people showed total ignorance - not delusion. So, did we see MANIA? ----------------- arrh, no, in fact we saw bugger all ------------ no parties, no dinner table talk, no queues of people out doors buying or selling gold at all. NONE ----------------- if this was mania, it was the most dumbed down drugged manic phase ever produced by a bull market --------- ever. Now, there is almost universal agreement that gold was in fact in the biggest bull market in history. So, is that how we expect the biggest bull market ever to end ?----------------------- a sort of non end - no party, no fan fare, no tearing up of dead eft tickets -- nothing. Arrrh, no. How about the possibility that it hasn't reached that sector yet? What about the possibility that if this was a volcano, that it has just shown us the first rumblings? Would we see that if gold went up now past $1900 onto say $3000 and then climbed rapidly toward $10,000 p/oz Would we call that a greedy, delusional period? Would we see MANIA? Would we see people filling corridors in gold buyers offices - either buying or selling their jewellery? My guess is a very big ----------- Yep. Now that would be manic. How about that that final sector is about to begin? If there are some among you that have seen a gold rush or a mining rush or a manic time in a market - you will know what I am talking about ------- and for those of you too young to have seen one -------- believe me --------- we haven't had it yet ---------- not by a long shot. Wait until you see gold going north and south regularly by a couple of hundred bucks a night - not this pissy $20 or even $50 -------------- hundreds. If you think $50 bucks can get the adrenaline going -- try $250 eod with a range of $500 and run it for a couple of days. Now, that's manic material. Wait until your 10 cent shares open the next morning at 14 and keep going - wait until those 10 cent shares are 50 c within a few weeks, wait until they screech past $2 bucks and leave it behind without a pause --------- all of them, even the ones with no assets, no cash and full of fresh air. Wait until you put in a buy order at market and sweat because the bloody thing takes all of 5 minutes to fill. We haven't seen anything yet. A manic period - it's a whole new ball game. If you haven't seen one - believe me, your definition of MANIA will be changed forever. Gold to $1900 was in fact ----------------- dreary. have a great night all. Gazza
