We all know RE agents lie through their teeth, the ones with decent sales at least. This can make it very difficult for the average person who is forced to deal with such people when making possibly the largest capital allocation of their lives. I'm not just talking at the inspection/purchase level but at all levels, including the top where data is given to the media about prices measures and the number of sales etc. Here is an interesting titbit from a corrupt media outlet in the US. http://www.cnbc.com/id/45659547 It details a 5 year coverup of real statistics with the obvious intent of painting a rosy picture to lure people into the market. This story is nothing special, or anything new, but it illustrates how long such lies can perpetuate in our current corrupt societies. Here in Australia the case is different. Here the mass media is much more controlled, by 2 corporations basically, and the lies we are fed are backed up at all levels with just a scant few voices on the internet disseminating the actual truth. For example our unemployment figures are a total sham. You could double them and still be short of the mark. The reported inflation is a lie, we all know that! The GFC was interesting, a total surprise, for the masses, but not for the people paying attention, and certainly not for those with real money. There was a flurry of action by government here to fix things and copious assurances that we were safe because we are so smart here and didn't make the mistakes of other nations. Truth is we missed a bullet and there is no guarantee we will next time. Most everyone here knows all this, it's nothing new either is it. But mental acceptance of a series of facts does not make a secure future, only proactive steps, to use a buzz word, do. Like super allocation changes and the selling of risky assets. Here is a canary in the coal mine article from zerohedge. Retail Investors Pull $132 Billion From Domestic Equity Funds In 2011, 33 Of 34 Sequential Weeks Of Outflows http://www.zerohedge.com/news/retai...ty-funds-2011-33-34-sequential-weeks-outflows This is probably a lot of smart money that bought in at the bottom in 2009. Like the smart money here that sold their RE in 2006~2007. It is very very easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when things seem to be just coasting along, especially this time of year. BTW, how many weeks does it take for a change in superannuation allocation to get processed? Lets keep on our toes shall we. 3rd Worst Stock Market Crash: Date Started: January/19/1906 7th Worst Stock Market Crash: Date Started: January/11/1973 10th Worst Stock Market Crash: Date Started: January/15/2000 Worst Stock Market Crash Ever: Date Started: April/17/1930 That's 3 out of 10, with a group of 12 to draw from. Statistically not a random event.
Does it honestly matter? No matter what might be said, the people who are still asleep will still go ahead and do exactly the same thing they always have. Whilst we can note the predictable nature of market cycles, to assume there hasn't been a smaller educated and alert element trying to warn people before events unwind would be short sighted. The only thing to be gained from such discussion is being 'on record' for picking a crash before the event happens. There will still be blind, ignorant fools who will do their shirts. There will still be some who make a fortune on their demise. There will still be 'lessons learned after the fact' and so the cycle will repeat again. *shrugs* Is the global economy rooted? Of course. Will they try and prop it up for as long as possible? Naturally. Are people screaming blue murder the end of the world is coming? Always. Will the vast majority suffer when it all goes to shit? Yes, same as it always does. Will the minority after the fact lament the situation and say 'I told you so'? Of course. WILL lessons be learned? Of course not. The idiot sheep will cry, blame someone else, look to the government to bail their idiot arses out again and go straight back to square one to repeat the same thing in another generation or two. It's why I just cannot feel any sympathy or pity for the flock who will no doubt be burned in the years ahead. No matter what idealised notion of charity you have in bringing stark warning to them, they will spit in your face and blame YOU for their own demise - then demand you pay for their mistakes. So I say let them eat beans. I don't even TRY to explain this crap anymore. I just don't care.
Very interesting and quite poignant. Do you have a listing for the other months that the crashes occurred?
This could be something you're looking for: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes
The smart money sold RE in 2006 & 2007 ? The smart money still has it making them money !!! You generalise far too much. Where would the smart money put it today ?
Ive been watchin the OPs posts & something smells .They are written talking to the masses like a zerohedge article or something similar
He could be just a well researched masked man for all i know .Is that you mach ?c'mon fess up you huge powerful man :
Statically 2005 was the best year to switch from RE to gold when US gold was in the mid US 400s. That was part my luck but I sold in 2005 to make the switchover.
It's an original piece , Jeeze anyone would think this place is full of people that actually read and critically analyze as well. Oh thats right..... SS
It matters to me, and to most of us here I assume? I think you will find that you are just going through a healthy stage of adjustment to the reality of the world system, we all go through these psychological stages, Amazement, fear, evangelism, disdain, etc. I don't mean this in any way to be condescending. It is simply the truth. The trick is to come out the other end as happy as we were before and not be embittered by the process. Time will tell for RE investment, but globally it's a disaster and I don't see anything special about Australia aside from our parochial attitudes. Did you know that the major banks were selling their commercial offices back then too? I would assume into super funds. They lease them back now and told everyone it was a strategic move to increase profits. Why would banks, of all people, sell their RE holdings if they were such a good investment? As for the smart money in Australia, mostly in PM's of course. It has been the investment of the decade with 300% gains in gold and currently 600% gains in silver. I would say that beats any gains in RE. Back in 2005 you could have gone under the capital gains tree and borrowed $150,000 from the equity fairy and be sitting on a before tax profit of over half a million now. With no counter-party risk, no fear of a house price crash, no agents, maintenance, etc etc. Having said that there is smart money in RE, It is in farmland I believe. I don't know any investors that have gone there myself though, I just hear stories of big money buying big properties. All of us sort of. My data is US market crashes only, from here http://www.mutual-funds-advisor.com/mutual-fund-history/stock-market-crashes.html Or here. http://www.worststockmarketcrashes.com/stock-market-crashes/wall-streets-worst-market-crashes/ Others markets have crashed, like when the various tigers went down, but those don't effect us like the US cashes do. I like Wikipedia, I donate to them, but data like this is easily generalized and when telling a historical story the second leg down is as good as the first. Have a look at this chart and tell me when the best time to get out in 1906 was. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19001920.html Of course no one should have even been in the market for the last 3 years unless they were a speculator. All to risky for someone like me. auspm is correct in a lot of what he says, aside from the bit about me wanting to be on record for picking a crash. It might not be next month, probably wont, but the odds are there. A lot of what we post I feel is just to get our own thoughts in order, we rehash things. It keeps us on track. These concepts go against a lifetimes experience and teaching and against all the propaganda we get out in the world. This forum is relatively new and reminds me of the original goldismoney forum of 2000~2005. It exists only as archives now, goldismoney2 has replaced it and it is not the same forum believe me. The new one is embroiled in squabbles and full of mad comments but that is what you would expect if you lived in the US today, where laws now exist to arrest citizens without warrant and transport them to other countries or place them in detention camps. The original members are long gone. Many of them up into the boonies, where they live off grid, probably without the internet for security purposes. I wonder where we will be in 10 years time?
looks to me that the smart money already own real estate. if you own it and it is making you money why sell it? The "not smart" money bought at the wrong time for too much and own mortgages in a sinking market. I guess the next phase of "smart money" will be buying RE at bargain prices in the coming years. Smart money always seems to have some powder dry it seems....
Thank you for that southerncross, I did spend 2 hours researching and compiling that post, going back through my experience and having a few original thoughts. I'm not upset by the negative comments, although I once would have been. It convinces me that people are thinking when they challenge things. A much better reaction than just that glazed look and silence we get from all those people in our acquaintance who we have tried to relate these issues to. And I might be wrong on something important too! Better to find out here now than in a few years time when it's too late to reverse course. Well that's all true too, I am talking to the masses, the masses of PM buyers here on silverstackers, and I read zerohedge, have been for years. Absorbing yourself in this stuff does have that effect on you. My apologies for not being very personable and matey here but the reality is very few of us will ever meet. This is a virtual discussion board after all, and we are really just a bunch of avatars, Sig lines and post scores exchanging ideas and giving each other the heads up. An incredibly valuable free service if you think about it.
Jack i think you will be surprised how many people on here have met.Im not sure where your from but australians are a sociable bunch..& if they havent met in person someone they know has so its not as anonomous as you think . Theres a lot of F2F deals & monthly meets here . Keep posting oh masked man theres some good stuff in your posts. Your not a journo are you ?
Thanks for the vote of confidence renovator, and thanks for your comment too Chilli. No, I'm no journo, just an average Australian who has read a lot of books and internet sites and listened to hundreds and hundreds of MP3's on these subjects. I guess you start to copy the presentation methods after reading so much of it. Good to hear you have a social contact network developing out of this, having like-minded people as friends is a real bonus. I have such meetups with other styles of forum I post on but have never considered it with this aspect of my life. Probably due to my ideas on security, right of wrong it's just the way I feel. You can never be too rich or too paranoid they say. I have the paranoia firmly in place, now I'm just waiting to get rich
